As we continue to look at the game on Saturday, the battle between the OSU defense and ISU offense will tell the story of the game apart from turnovers or special teams disasters.
For as much as I appreciate what the Cyclones have accomplished on defense by going against the grain of conventional wisdom in scrapping the nickel based defense and going with a 3-3 stack scheme that has revolutionized the way college teams defend the spread and RPOs, I really like how they have developed their 13 personnel packages and integrated it into the spread concepts. They have 2 high level TEs (Kolar and Allen) and a very physical blocking Fullback/TE hybrid (Russ) that make their offense extremely versatile and efficient. Combine those aspects with arguably the top back in the conference, and you have the ingredients for a tough assignment for the defense, particularly the linebackers and safeties.
In this matchup, everything starts up front. The Cyclones have a productive and experienced group (even with the newcomer being inserted at tackle last week) that thrives in the run game. When you add in all three of the TE/FB players, you get consistently solid run game blocking. They are able to create extra gaps that the defense has to cover and are able to get lots of size on the edge to seal and kick out. They utilize zone and power blocking schemes, and their base run plays are stretch and outside zone. They build most of their play-action, screen, and bootleg game off these two concepts, so they have to be their bread and butter. If the Cyclone run game struggles and they can't use their play action, their downfield passing game becomes much more limited. The rest of the passing game features short (predominantly boundary side) route combinations, back side drags, and screens. The offensive line is not asked to hold a pocket for very long, so they are not proficient at it. Consequently, Brock Purdy shows nervousness when pressured on obvious passing situations when they are trying to go down the field. If he cannot check down in front of him, he tends to pump fake and scramble or hurriedly throw it away.
From looking at all of the ISU games this season, I think it is safe to say that they will struggle in 3rd and 7 or greater situations against the Cowboys pressure. Their line had difficulties with Baylor and Iowa's pressure. Kansas State was depleted on the interior due to injuries when they played last week, and the game script had the Cyclones playing with a lead most of the way reducing the number of obvious passing situations. Iowa State desperately needs to win on the early downs to be successful. They are very efficient when it is 3rd and 5 or less. The ability to run with Hall or Purdy as well as the quick, short passing game to huge TE targets give them advantages in those situations. Make them extend to seven yards, and the plays are slower developing, allowing pressure to have more of an impact. They rely on TE drag/shallow crossing routes and shallow levels routes into the boundary to convert in those situations, mixing in occassional bootlegs and 5 yard hitch/stick routes. Deeper route concepts tend to be featured off of play-action (wheel routes to the tight end, deep crossing route/post from the backside receiver, etc.)
The Cowboys will scheme to not give up those short crossing routes. They will force Brock Purdy to throw down the field or accurately to the sideline while under duress. One of the things that shows up consistently on film is the difference in the quarterback's comfort, accuracy, and decision making when throwing to the boundary side versus the field side. He lacks accuracy on throws to the opposite side of the field, and his accuracy down the sidelines wanes after 20-25 yards. If pressure hits home, I expect the Cowboys to be able to jump a couple of those passes into the boundary for interceptions. On the flip side, I think that Iowa State can hurt the Cowboys on early downs down the seam and on out routes, particularly off of play action. The other area of concern is the screen game and check downs to Breece Hall. In a large chunk of their pass protections, the RB will float out the backside of the play behind a drag/shallow cross and can get lost in the wash pretty easily. The Cowboys do not want to allow him to get the ball in open field situations.
Because so many of Brock Purdy's passes are short, directly in front of him, or into the boundary, his release point is a bit low. It's important for defensive linemen to get their hands up on the pass rush to obstruct the line of sight and possible get some tips. The counter for ISU will be to increase the use of the bootleg. They are very productive in doing this into a short out-route. This will put the outside defender (safety) into a run-pass conflict. I expect ISU to utilize that early in the game and in red zone situations.
The battle up front in the run game will be a very even fight. Oklahoma State's depth on the interior will play a big part in being able to defend the run game for four quarters. Iowa State will want to shorten the game by possessing the ball and limiting possessions, so they will continue to pound the run game. The Cowboys will have to be very alert to the formation shifts and motion in order to get their run fits correct. If they remain disciplined and tackle well, they should be able to contain Breece Hall. He will still get his yards. He is a very strong and patient back, who at 220 pounds is a load to bring down once he gets his shoulders square to the line of scrimmage. Although he likes to bounce things outside, the Cowboys are still going to prefer jamming up the inside run and force him into their pursuit, trusting their speed and gap integrity to tackle him before he gets north-south. This is the type of offense that makes the coaching staff very happy to have experienced players at linebacker and safety.
Our defense will be the best defense that the Cyclones have faced. They will not be the best offense we have faced. There is a slight advantage to the Cowboys from that standpoint, but don't be lulled into thinking this offense will be easy to contain. They may not have the same explosive athletes as Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU, but they are very well equipped to possess the ball and force our offense to be efficient with our possessions. That in a nutshell is what the game may come down to in the end. There are individual match-up issues in covering Allen and Kolar with our safeties that have to be properly defended. Keeping the run game in check and limiting the impact of play action goes a long way toward aiding that. Hutchison's physicality will be a test for the corners, and the Cyclones have other capable receiving targets sprinkled around him that can make a few plays. Noel is a less dynamic version of Pressley, and he will have his handful of opportunities. The keys will come down to containing Breece Hall, winning on first down, making Brock Purdy uncomfortable in the pocket, and not allowing him to make critical plays with his feet on third downs or in the red zone.
Lastly, let me just add this. There are some pretty strong tendencies that ISU has put on film regarding certain formation shifts and motion. The Cowboys need to be alert to double actions that take advantage of over-aggressive play.
For as much as I appreciate what the Cyclones have accomplished on defense by going against the grain of conventional wisdom in scrapping the nickel based defense and going with a 3-3 stack scheme that has revolutionized the way college teams defend the spread and RPOs, I really like how they have developed their 13 personnel packages and integrated it into the spread concepts. They have 2 high level TEs (Kolar and Allen) and a very physical blocking Fullback/TE hybrid (Russ) that make their offense extremely versatile and efficient. Combine those aspects with arguably the top back in the conference, and you have the ingredients for a tough assignment for the defense, particularly the linebackers and safeties.
In this matchup, everything starts up front. The Cyclones have a productive and experienced group (even with the newcomer being inserted at tackle last week) that thrives in the run game. When you add in all three of the TE/FB players, you get consistently solid run game blocking. They are able to create extra gaps that the defense has to cover and are able to get lots of size on the edge to seal and kick out. They utilize zone and power blocking schemes, and their base run plays are stretch and outside zone. They build most of their play-action, screen, and bootleg game off these two concepts, so they have to be their bread and butter. If the Cyclone run game struggles and they can't use their play action, their downfield passing game becomes much more limited. The rest of the passing game features short (predominantly boundary side) route combinations, back side drags, and screens. The offensive line is not asked to hold a pocket for very long, so they are not proficient at it. Consequently, Brock Purdy shows nervousness when pressured on obvious passing situations when they are trying to go down the field. If he cannot check down in front of him, he tends to pump fake and scramble or hurriedly throw it away.
From looking at all of the ISU games this season, I think it is safe to say that they will struggle in 3rd and 7 or greater situations against the Cowboys pressure. Their line had difficulties with Baylor and Iowa's pressure. Kansas State was depleted on the interior due to injuries when they played last week, and the game script had the Cyclones playing with a lead most of the way reducing the number of obvious passing situations. Iowa State desperately needs to win on the early downs to be successful. They are very efficient when it is 3rd and 5 or less. The ability to run with Hall or Purdy as well as the quick, short passing game to huge TE targets give them advantages in those situations. Make them extend to seven yards, and the plays are slower developing, allowing pressure to have more of an impact. They rely on TE drag/shallow crossing routes and shallow levels routes into the boundary to convert in those situations, mixing in occassional bootlegs and 5 yard hitch/stick routes. Deeper route concepts tend to be featured off of play-action (wheel routes to the tight end, deep crossing route/post from the backside receiver, etc.)
The Cowboys will scheme to not give up those short crossing routes. They will force Brock Purdy to throw down the field or accurately to the sideline while under duress. One of the things that shows up consistently on film is the difference in the quarterback's comfort, accuracy, and decision making when throwing to the boundary side versus the field side. He lacks accuracy on throws to the opposite side of the field, and his accuracy down the sidelines wanes after 20-25 yards. If pressure hits home, I expect the Cowboys to be able to jump a couple of those passes into the boundary for interceptions. On the flip side, I think that Iowa State can hurt the Cowboys on early downs down the seam and on out routes, particularly off of play action. The other area of concern is the screen game and check downs to Breece Hall. In a large chunk of their pass protections, the RB will float out the backside of the play behind a drag/shallow cross and can get lost in the wash pretty easily. The Cowboys do not want to allow him to get the ball in open field situations.
Because so many of Brock Purdy's passes are short, directly in front of him, or into the boundary, his release point is a bit low. It's important for defensive linemen to get their hands up on the pass rush to obstruct the line of sight and possible get some tips. The counter for ISU will be to increase the use of the bootleg. They are very productive in doing this into a short out-route. This will put the outside defender (safety) into a run-pass conflict. I expect ISU to utilize that early in the game and in red zone situations.
The battle up front in the run game will be a very even fight. Oklahoma State's depth on the interior will play a big part in being able to defend the run game for four quarters. Iowa State will want to shorten the game by possessing the ball and limiting possessions, so they will continue to pound the run game. The Cowboys will have to be very alert to the formation shifts and motion in order to get their run fits correct. If they remain disciplined and tackle well, they should be able to contain Breece Hall. He will still get his yards. He is a very strong and patient back, who at 220 pounds is a load to bring down once he gets his shoulders square to the line of scrimmage. Although he likes to bounce things outside, the Cowboys are still going to prefer jamming up the inside run and force him into their pursuit, trusting their speed and gap integrity to tackle him before he gets north-south. This is the type of offense that makes the coaching staff very happy to have experienced players at linebacker and safety.
Our defense will be the best defense that the Cyclones have faced. They will not be the best offense we have faced. There is a slight advantage to the Cowboys from that standpoint, but don't be lulled into thinking this offense will be easy to contain. They may not have the same explosive athletes as Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU, but they are very well equipped to possess the ball and force our offense to be efficient with our possessions. That in a nutshell is what the game may come down to in the end. There are individual match-up issues in covering Allen and Kolar with our safeties that have to be properly defended. Keeping the run game in check and limiting the impact of play action goes a long way toward aiding that. Hutchison's physicality will be a test for the corners, and the Cyclones have other capable receiving targets sprinkled around him that can make a few plays. Noel is a less dynamic version of Pressley, and he will have his handful of opportunities. The keys will come down to containing Breece Hall, winning on first down, making Brock Purdy uncomfortable in the pocket, and not allowing him to make critical plays with his feet on third downs or in the red zone.
Lastly, let me just add this. There are some pretty strong tendencies that ISU has put on film regarding certain formation shifts and motion. The Cowboys need to be alert to double actions that take advantage of over-aggressive play.
