I Have No Idea Who This Guy Is
- Thread starter Ponca Dan
- Start date
He has a well thought out thread on the situation in Ukraine. I would like to see his drone images.
The troops in the Severodonetsk area are in danger of being surrounded. In fact, the bulge is collapsing. It's a trap, and every minute they wait to pull out and reposition is another minute the Russians have to set it. Ukraine will lose troops here. The question is how many. Behind them is open wheat country as well. No more forests to hide in. The Russian artillery is vulnerable to air attack, but the Ukrainians don't have the forces to penetrate the Russian controlled airspace. NATO can give Ukraine all the western weapons it wants, and it will do no good. The Ukrainians are trained on Russia equipment not US equipment and training them now in the middle of a fight is not possible.
It would not surprise me to find our own strategic think tanks drinking their own cool aid. We've been fighting in the desert so long we forgot how to fight in Europe. The Russians have been going through Generals to find the ones that know how to do the job and the ones that are riding a desk. We have Generals that know how to ride a desk and none that have any kind of field experience.
The troops in the Severodonetsk area are in danger of being surrounded. In fact, the bulge is collapsing. It's a trap, and every minute they wait to pull out and reposition is another minute the Russians have to set it. Ukraine will lose troops here. The question is how many. Behind them is open wheat country as well. No more forests to hide in. The Russian artillery is vulnerable to air attack, but the Ukrainians don't have the forces to penetrate the Russian controlled airspace. NATO can give Ukraine all the western weapons it wants, and it will do no good. The Ukrainians are trained on Russia equipment not US equipment and training them now in the middle of a fight is not possible.
It would not surprise me to find our own strategic think tanks drinking their own cool aid. We've been fighting in the desert so long we forgot how to fight in Europe. The Russians have been going through Generals to find the ones that know how to do the job and the ones that are riding a desk. We have Generals that know how to ride a desk and none that have any kind of field experience.
Yeah, except for the ones that spent the last 20 years in the shit in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Funny how the twitter expert forgot all about the route of Saddam's armored forces in Desert Storm while explaining that all we've done since WWII is fight goat herders.
Thats funny that you think the ones that fought the war in Afghanistan and Iraq are still around.
Yes, how outrageous. You think the General staff is comprised of 25 year olds?
I'll disregard your comment about me. What we may think of each other is immaterial. But I would be interested to know what you found to be delusional about his anaylsis of the war to date. It pretty much comports with much of what I've read about conditions there. I would be happy to read any links you care to provide which express a different opinion.
The general staff that was directing the war in Afghanistan is retired and it is now 20 years from when the war was fought. You would be lucky to get a captain that was there. The old generals you talk about have been riding a desk for at least that long. I love your video of the first gulf war which was 30 years ago. Iraq is close 20 years as well. The leadership that is available is not there. Those generals you talk about are now talking heads on MSNBC or CNN or Fox.
What sober military men in potential adversary countries across the globe see is that Russia has, with one hand tied behind its back, eviscerated the massive, relatively well-armed and well-trained Ukraine military. The US intimidation factor has been forever compromised.
Despite not having “won” a war since 1945 (and then only truly against the Japanese), the US military is consumed with the vanity that it has *always* dominated opposing forces in every conflict.
Few of his points......hummm so with one hand tied behind their back eviscerated the "well trained Ukraine Military." Didn't realize this invasion has been such a cakewalk......who would have known.
Anytime I see something like "having not won a war since 1945 (and only really against Japan) the first thing that comes to mind is a russia troll. They think by striktly KIA numbers they get all the credit for defeating the Wehrmacht, which is nonsense for manifold reasons.
If the "new" russian tactics are so sound, why are they losing ground to the north and east of Kharkiv. Where if Ukraine can interdict road E-40 with artillery then supplies coming from Belgorod have 100 of km's further to travel and it endangers the current advance SE from Izyum to try and close the gap around, Bakhumt, down to Popasna thereby encircling Lysychansk.
Second between the partisan activity around Melitopol and the current drive reconquering territory around Kherson it's not all bad news for Ukraine.
Lastly, funny how he mentioned the US losing to sandal wearing AKL-47 toting farmers, but conveniently forget Afghanistan. He is spewing a lot of "alleged" russian military virtues and from what I read everything is going great. He is a russian troll.
Despite not having “won” a war since 1945 (and then only truly against the Japanese), the US military is consumed with the vanity that it has *always* dominated opposing forces in every conflict.
Few of his points......hummm so with one hand tied behind their back eviscerated the "well trained Ukraine Military." Didn't realize this invasion has been such a cakewalk......who would have known.
Anytime I see something like "having not won a war since 1945 (and only really against Japan) the first thing that comes to mind is a russia troll. They think by striktly KIA numbers they get all the credit for defeating the Wehrmacht, which is nonsense for manifold reasons.
If the "new" russian tactics are so sound, why are they losing ground to the north and east of Kharkiv. Where if Ukraine can interdict road E-40 with artillery then supplies coming from Belgorod have 100 of km's further to travel and it endangers the current advance SE from Izyum to try and close the gap around, Bakhumt, down to Popasna thereby encircling Lysychansk.
Second between the partisan activity around Melitopol and the current drive reconquering territory around Kherson it's not all bad news for Ukraine.
Lastly, funny how he mentioned the US losing to sandal wearing AKL-47 toting farmers, but conveniently forget Afghanistan. He is spewing a lot of "alleged" russian military virtues and from what I read everything is going great. He is a russian troll.
Here’s a similar analysis from Scott Ritter who, despite anything else about him, is not a delusional America-hating clown. And, yes, I admire Scott Ritter. The other guy I had never heard of. The sad fact is no matter how badly we want Ukraine to prevail it isn’t going to happen. The sooner the war ends the better for all parties involved, especially the poor slugs having artillery rain down on them with relentless accuracy.
SCOTT RITTER: The Fantasy of Fanaticism
Despite what some "defense analysts" may be telling Western media, the longer the war continues, the more Ukrainians will die and the weaker NATO will become. By Scott Ritter Special to Consortium News For a moment in time, it looked as if reality had managed to finally carve its way thro
consortiumnews.com
You may be right, he may be a Russian troll. I’ve never heard of him before. And you are definitely right that combat consists of assaults and retreats. I’m sure Ukraine has had occasional sporadic success here and there. But I’m pretty sure it consists of one step forward followed by two steps back for the most part.
I have appreciated your putting me onto the ISW website. It is very informative. I do notice it is headed by a retired general and hard core member of the American NeoCon apparatus, and in spite of my utter distrust of those people I check into the site regularly. One thing I have noticed about their writeups: they spend much of their analysis discussing the problems the Russian military faces in various theaters, but in their closing analysis they generally concede that Russia has made advancement.
I just want to see the killing and destruction end.
Then the Russians should have bulldozed the inferior army. And army with no air support.
In the early days when they had the 30 mile convoy, what does he think our A-10s would have done to it.
Ukrainian dr I ne hobbyist reaped hell on their armor . What would our drone swarms have do to them? The swarms are one of the most deadly things ever brought to the battle field.
The part that this guy is getting right is Russia has switched tactics to an artillery-based attack. I don't know about his ideas on the defenses, which is why I would like to see his imagery, but from what I am seeing the Eastern war is not going well at all for Ukraine. The gains around Kershon are going to be limited as the Ukrainians will not have the ability to cross the Dnipro. I would categorize this area as a strategic redeployment for Russian forces as they reposition, they have taken up is highly defensible areas. I would not want to be fighting a war in the open wheat fields there as well.
The guy may be a Russian troll, but I wouldn't dismiss what he is talking about as well. The war in Ukraine is not going well for the Ukrainians and judging by the capture of a slew of overseas fighters, including Americans they are having some issues. The Russian hold the advantage. They have taken casualties no doubt, and this guy does dismiss that, but they are making gains as well. The Russians have some things to look at for their recipe for success. They have learned and adapted which is the opposite of what we wanted them to do. The Russian military is not the slug the US wants it to be, and they still have not gone all in on total war. It's close to that, but they are holding some things back.
Still praying for the Ukrainians, but NATO needs to consider what to do if they lose this one.
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You make a good point, but I believe it is a little misguided. The 30 mile tank convoy was intended as a feint (Phase 1) to force Ukraine to keep reserves in limbo around Kiev while the Russians encircled the Ukrainian forces that has massed to “invade” the Donbas region. As I understand it it caught the Ukrainian (and NATO/USA) tacticians unprepared and surprised. The tank convoy did not suffer anywhere near the damage the western press claimed. Those claims were a face-saving propaganda appeal while NATO/Ukraine tried to reassess what to do next.
As for what US air power would do to a 30 mile convoy of tanks sitting idly on a roadside, it would turn it into a burning pile of rubble. But I would expect Russian military leadership would be aware of that and probably would use a different tactic.
Here’s a similar analysis from Scott Ritter who, despite anything else about him, is not a delusional America-hating clown. And, yes, I admire Scott Ritter. The other guy I had never heard of. The sad fact is no matter how badly we want Ukraine to prevail it isn’t going to happen. The sooner the war ends the better for all parties involved, especially the poor slugs having artillery rain down on them with relentless accuracy.
SCOTT RITTER: The Fantasy of Fanaticism
Despite what some "defense analysts" may be telling Western media, the longer the war continues, the more Ukrainians will die and the weaker NATO will become. By Scott Ritter Special to Consortium News For a moment in time, it looked as if reality had managed to finally carve its way thro
I scanned through the Ritter article so here are a few thoughts.
First how does he know that the russian has 50,000 shells they can fire each day? I can see how he might guesstimate/estimate Ukrainian usage as he would still be plugged in sorta speak, but russian stock and usage.
On the surface though who are we, who is anyone to tell Ukrainians to negotiate a peace and give away 20% of your country? What assurances does anyone have that russia stops there forever? When it comes to wars (granted have never been in one) the one strategy that seems to never work is appeasement. Bad actor commits some type of armed invasion, other countries say please stop, you can have what you have taken if you do stop and they think the abhorrent behavior stops.......we know that never works.
Actually not sure how he can say this is weakening NATO, because as with the case of Germany they are going to spend more on defense then before. Plus bringing Finland and Sweden into the fold only strengthens NATO. Finland has a massive army once mobilization occurs.
You don't like the destruction and killing nor do I, but the reality is that is the world in a nutshell. There will always be wars, always. Not one Ukrainian I know wants to give up and they believe despite the losses they will prevail. Conversely if the west wants peace they need to quit arming Ukraine. This war will not be won entirely on the battlefield and administering conquered lands openly hostile to your occupation will be a huge burden on whomever is there.
I'm also extremely skeptical that men are being thrown into the front with no training. Could be on some occasions but as a strategy to slow down an advance that is already slow, highly unlikely. Also when they mentioned high causluties etc, could that not be a head fake? A justification for more weapons/ammo?
There is no doubt that in my mind multiple countries have special forces already operating inside Ukraine training Ukrainians, heck maybe even accompanying them on missions.
I'll admit my hopes of a recognizable victory have diminished substantially. But to me this is also far from over, unless the russian has a certain line they want to reach and then will stop once reached. Probably only a few people within putins circle know that.
Am glad you like ISW. Yes they do mention mostly the russian predicament but what I really like is if they can't independently verify a certain outcome they say so. They also use NASA satellite images that show areas on fire to illustrate where battles are probably occurring, or at least artillery is being used. Their interactive map, updated daily is also handy.
We shall see.......
The different takes on this are important to understand what is going on. I appreciate both you and Ponca for your interest in this subject as well as your researched insights. At least you are both focused on something we should be focused on instead of the normal bla bla bla.
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