Election 2024: Trump vs Kamala
- Thread starter tlwwake
- Start date
If you’re believing polls you’re not a student of history.
2016 Trump outperformed by 9% nationally, 2020 he outperformed polling by 5% (assuming you think the election was totally clean).
In 2016 he was down 17pts in WI and won the state.
Did you notice in the last few weeks Trump surged? Ever think to ask yourself why?
Here are the polymarket odds
Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions
2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.
polymarket.com
Bet on Harris and make a ton IF she won. 66.9 trump and Kamala 33.1
She didn't get the nickname heels up Harris for nothing. Oh that was for something else.
I always think of the Sooners as left wing dip shits but we got Tony Casillas on our side
I'm actually a little worried. All Kamala has to do is hold her blue wall and grab the single elector from Nebraska, and all 3 blue wall states have made it "easier to vote" in the last 4 years (aka, easier to cheat, as we see going on in Pennsylvania already). That, along with her more comfortable leftist states gets her 270 on the nose. Trump flipping just Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona from 2020 isn't enough. He has to win one of those northern 3 or pull off a miracle win somewhere else (NM, Virginia, or NH).
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Pennsylvania has been a screwing state for early voting because they do like 3 weeks of early voting (highly favors Dems) but only 1 week of early, in-person voting (strongly favors Reps), which until yesterday or today, hadn't started. So the past week's numbers have been totally skewed to the Dem side. And now that in-person is over, you'll see huge jumps in the Rep numbers, but the timing gap makes it hard to compare their turnout percentages against other states.
He’s in good shape in Wisconsin. Will all come down to independents in the 7 swing states
Do they vote on economy? Or do they hear the fear with abortion bans and vote Kamala?
You say 7 swing states but its not. He HAS to win one of the blue 3 or the other 4 don't matter.
You’re discounting alternative patches like new Hampshire which is very close… or Virginia. Both are within the margin of error.
Your path you keep stating is the most traditional and I agree.. trump most like needs to win one of the blue wall. That’s his best path. But I still think.. based on polls and early voting… he can win New Hampshire or Virginia.
Looks like ship has sailed on Minnesota and New Mexico for this cycle but we are closing the gap
I did say: "or pull off a miracle win somewhere else (NM, Virginia, or NH)."
I find it very doubtful that Trump loses the 3 Northern Blues while somehow flipping a Virginia or NH. That's a gut-shot straight draw at best.
We aren’t disagreeing. Best, most realistic path is probably win PA or Wisconsin. I think Kamala has Michigan
Concur. Don''t think Don can beat the Detroit machine. I'm leery of Penn based on all the shadiness that's already gone on, such as the early closing of polling stations while voters were in line or the fake registrations submitted by the neighborhood canvassers. Wisconsin might be Trumps best shot.
But at least we know about the fake registrations in PA and they are investigating it.
Better now than in 2 weeks.
Hopefully Lara Trump isn’t FOS.
Hard to argue with Silver on this. Shapiro is popular in Pennsylvania and probably would have been worth a couple of points in the election in a state that matters. But alas, Dems wanted to sure up support with the pro-riot wing of the Democratic party, so they selected the outspoken Israel critic and BLM rioter supporter for VP.
If she would’ve picked Shapiro, trump would absolutely be an underdog right now IMO
picking Walz over Shapiro will be looked back as one of the all dumb political decisions if she loses
Also worth noting. A Shapiro-Vance debate would have been very interesting as opposed to the snoozefest of Vance running circles around the Walz.
