Cruz vs. Trump; Interesting from Nate Silver

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-might-still-be-able-to-stop-donald-trump/


The exit polls in Michigan and Mississippi asked voters who they’d pick in a two-way race between Trump and Cruz, also giving them the option to say they’d sit out the race. Among Rubio voters, on average between the two states, about 75 percent said they’d still vote in a Trump-Cruz race, and of those, 80 percent would prefer Cruz to Trump. Kasich voters were somewhat more equivocal; 55 percent said they’d still vote, and of those, two-thirds would go to Cruz over Trump. Although this is the first time the exit polls have asked about one-on-one matchups, the results are consistent with national polls showing Trump losing ground as the field winnows, as well as exit polls in previous states showing Trump being unpopular with Republicans who aren’t already supporting him.

 

[HighStickHarry]

Yes I think I'll pick today to start listening to polls that predict trumps demise.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

It isn't really about "a poll" and it doesn't predict his demise. But carry on with your schtick.

 

[HighStickHarry]

Glove you are such a dick sometimes.

 

[HighStickHarry]

The third word is polls and one of your orange words is poll.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

The third word is polls and one of your orange words is poll.

I didn't personally do any of the "orange words", those were links from the part of the piece I excerpted, and that is how this site showed them. If you read the article you'd see that it really isn't about polls, although his methodology does use some polling data. And he certainly doesn't suggest Trump should be written off, on the contrary. Incidentally, Trump has either underperformed or been at the low end of his polling numbers in nearly every primary.

 

[CBradSmith]

Incidentally, Trump has either underperformed or been at the low end of his polling numbers in nearly every primary.

Not an indication of much. While others are hustling for every last vote, he's generally been off to another state.

Essentially, his lead has frequently been large enough that he can afford some slippage with the payoff being a head start on future states. Same could be said for campaign expenditures per state when compared to relative cash-on-hand spend of competing candidates.

All that said, I'm glad Cruz is kinda making a race of it. And it will be interesting to see what role Kasich plays if he wins Ohio. Big if. Seems Rubio is done.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

Not an indication of much. While others are hustling for every last vote, he's generally been off to another state.

Essentially, his lead has frequently been large enough that he can afford some slippage with the payoff being a head start on future states. Same could be said for campaign expenditures per state when compared to relative cash-on-hand spend of competing candidates.

All that said, I'm glad Cruz is kinda making a race of it. And it will be interesting to see what role Kasich plays if he wins Ohio. Big if. Seems Rubio is done.

What it indicates is this: there haven't been a bunch of polls out there "predicting Trump's demise", only to have him seemingly crush his poll numbers. The only polls predicting his demise have been those centering on the general election in the fall. Some polls have suggested he might be in trouble if the nomination bid were a two-man race. In both cases those projections have yet to be tested.

I believe Kasich will win OH and Trump will win FL.

 

[ctdub]

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

View embedded media

This has been happening a lot more than some people care to admit.

 

[NZ Poke]

This has been happening a lot more than some people care to admit.

I'm sure that's happening, but Trump surpassed 50% nationally for the first time. The more the corporate media attacks Trump, the more he seems to be growing.

Irony: the same corporate media attacking Trump were basically mouthpieces for the Bush administration in the run-up to the Iraq war.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/14/trump-rises-national-support-rubio-falls-and-carso/

 

[NZ Poke]

Re my mention of corporate media above.

Here's Ted M*thaf*ckin Koppel selling the Iraq war (like a government mouthpiece) in 2002-ish ----- to MSNBC's Phil Donahue, who was fired by MSNBC for opposing it.

How quickly we forget. (and corporate media sure as hell won't remind us how they easily morph into different things)