Check out the 538 Oz/Fetterman projection

[aix_xpert]

How does a data aggregator explain a 10 point shift in a single day? Somehow yesterday the race was 54/46 in favor of Fetterman, and today its 56/44 in favor of Oz. I get that there was some shift following the poor debate performance, but that was over a week ago.

2022 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Again, it may just be personal confirmation bias, but this feels like another piece of evidence that there is a red wave coming and that the left has done all they can to try to play up Dem chances to drive their vote. But now that they are going on record (they lock their forecast tonight), they have to rebalance the scales or 538 (the left leaning alternative to RCP) will lose what little credibility it has left.

 

[LAY THE WOODY]

Them poor folk Pennsylvanians might a pulled their heads out of there asses. Especially after what shit britches did to those idiots. Joe pulled the okie doke on that state.

 

[2012Bearcat]

Trying to cover their ass and cover up the fact they were nothing but Democrat propaganda.

 

[Marocain Poke]

The cockroaches are scattering.

 

[LAY THE WOODY]

Fetterman is nothing more than a stroked out clown. Wasn't anything more before. 😂

 

[davidallen]

How does a data aggregator explain a 10 point shift in a single day? Somehow yesterday the race was 54/46 in favor of Fetterman, and today its 56/44 in favor of Oz. I get that there was some shift following the poor debate performance, but that was over a week ago.

2022 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Again, it may just be personal confirmation bias, but this feels like another piece of evidence that there is a red wave coming and that the left has done all they can to try to play up Dem chances to drive their vote. But now that they are going on record (they lock their forecast tonight), they have to rebalance the scales or 538 (the left leaning alternative to RCP) will lose what little credibility it has left.

You should read up on what those numbers mean. It isn't what you think it is ..

 

[aix_xpert]

You should read up on what those numbers mean. It isn't what you think it is ..

I know exactly what they mean and know I didn't misrepresent them. But feel free to backup your sanctimonious ass with an explanation of why you think I was wrong.

 

[Rdcldad]

see how the orange man plants desanctimonious seed and watches it grow

it’s part of peoples vocabulary

 

[22LR]

see how the orange man plants desanctimonious seed and watches it grow

it’s part of peoples vocabulary

Yep. So unfortunate. I really wanted to see Trump in the WH again.

 

[Rdcldad]

Yep. So unfortunate. I really wanted to see Trump in the WH again.

imo

putting ron on notice doesn’t negate that possibility

 

[22LR]

imo

putting ron on notice doesn’t negate that possibility

Even Trump knows he screwed the pooch on this one.

Trump says DeSantis should be reelected one day after labeling him ‘Ron DeSanctimonious’​

Back to the OP, I learned to ignore all politcal polls and research data. It's as futile as following college football recruiting.

 

[my_2cents]

The last Marist poll out of Pennsylvania is a head-scratcher. +6 advantage for Fetterman? While all the other polls are essentially showing a dead heat, with Oz holding the advantage. It is of register voters though, where Fetterman tends to do better (Targoz shows a similar spread among register voters). Of course, we all know, that at this point, polls of likely voters are more accurate. And there, Oz is performing better.

Marist is setting themselves up to look really bad if Oz wins. Of course, if Fetterman wins, Marist will look good. Although I don't think anyone expects Fetterman to win by 6 points.

 

[2012Bearcat]

The last Marist poll out of Pennsylvania is a head-scratcher. +6 advantage for Fetterman? While all the other polls are essentially showing a dead heat, with Oz holding the advantage. It is of register voters though, where Fetterman tends to do better (Targoz shows a similar spread among register voters). Of course, we all know, that at this point, polls of likely voters are more accurate. And there, Oz is performing better.

Marist is setting themselves up to look really bad if Oz wins. Of course, if Fetterman wins, Marist will look good. Although I don't think anyone expects Fetterman to win by 6 points.

The fact the Fetterman is even competitive in this race is an embarrassment to the state of Pennsylvania.

 

[my_2cents]

The fact the Fetterman is even competitive in this race says a lot about the weakness of the Republican candidate, especially during this election cycle.

FTFY

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

Did I hear Fox Business right? Tonight will look really good for the Pubs. Then the Dimms will start the overnight Mule counts.

 

[GunsOfFrankEaton]

 

[Ponca Dan]

FTFY

It is shocking Oz is the best the Republicans in PA could come up with. And even more shocking that a literally brain-damaged Fetterman was the best the Democrats could offer.

 

[2012Bearcat]

It is shocking Oz is the best the Republicans in PA could come up with. And even more shocking that a literally brain-damaged Fetterman was the best the Democrats could offer.

What's keeping you from running for office? Now apply that same mentality to everyone else. There's your answer.

 

[MR. TANNER BOYLE]

FTFY

Dude give the “weak candidate” bs a rest, grow a pair and admit you champion a guy that stroked out a couple of months ago because he’s on your team, which is absolutely pathetic.

 

[my_2cents]

Dude give the “weak candidate” bs a rest, grow a pair and admit you champion a guy that stroked out a couple of months ago because he’s on your team, which is absolutely pathetic.

Sorry, I'm not going to give the truth a rest.

Given the nature of this election cycle, Republicans should be performing much better than they are in Pennsylvania. In both the Senate and Governor races. Yet, they nominated some bad/weak candidates which have forced them to fight tooth and nail for the Senate seat (spending more money then they wanted), against a candidate that is struggling with personal health concerns. On top of that, it looks like Shapiro is going to beat Mastriano.

Granted, maybe Oz wins big tonight, and maybe Mastriano pulls off a big upset. If that happens, then I'll take back this assertion (although the money aspect of that assertion will still be germane). But if they don't, it will continue to say a lot about their weaknesses as general election candidates.

 

[100TonsofOrangeFury]

Sorry, I'm not going to give the truth a rest.

Given the nature of this election cycle, Republicans should be performing much better than they are in Pennsylvania. In both the Senate and Governor races. Yet, they nominated some bad/weak candidates which have forced them to fight tooth and nail for the Senate seat (spending more money then they wanted), against a candidate that is struggling with personal health concerns. On top of that, it looks like Shapiro is going to beat Mastriano.

Granted, maybe Oz wins big tonight, and maybe Mastriano pulls off a big upset. If that happens, then I'll take back this assertion (although the money aspect of that assertion will still be germane). But if they don't, it will continue to say a lot about their weaknesses as general election candidates.

The political equivalent of the football team down 4 TD's in the 3rd quarter talking shit that the other team isn't up by 5 TD's.

You have no idea how clownish your act is every day do you?

 

[my_2cents]

The political equivalent of the football team down 4 TD's in the 3rd quarter talking shit that the other team isn't up by 5 TD's.

What is hilarious is that you actually think we are in the third quarter and my team is down 4 TDs.

 

[100TonsofOrangeFury]

What is hilarious is that you actually think we are in the third quarter and my team is down 4 TDs.

This is called "whistling past the graveyard".

Your team's ideas, concepts, beliefs, and leaders are about to be excoriated by the American public tonight. Just bend over and ask them to use lube while you wonder how it all went wrong.

 

[my_2cents]

Your team's ideas, concepts, beliefs, and leaders are about to be excoriated by the American public tonight. Just bend over and ask them to use lube while you wonder how it all went wrong.

So Republicans are going to finally win an election cycle after two straight defeats? Congratulations.

I wonder, did you get this excited about the 1994 and 2010 midterm results? If so, how did 1996 and 2012 work out for you?

btw, you won't see me wondering how anything went wrong after tonight.

 

[TPOKE]

I wonder why Fetterman wants all mail in votes without a date to be counted?

 

[2012Bearcat]

People are missing the fact there are more Senate Republican seats up (21) for reelection in 2022 than Democrats (14), the real threat to Democrats comes in 2024 when the script is flipped and Democrats have to defend 23 seats. If Republicans play their cards right 2024 could give them over 60 seats in Senate making Democrats completely irrelevant. In 2024 if Republicans hold the House, win the Presidency and increase their Senate seats to 60 or more the leftist meltdown would be one for the ages. I'm looking forward to it.

 

[davidallen]

I know exactly what they mean and know I didn't misrepresent them. But feel free to backup your sanctimonious ass with an explanation of why you think I was wrong.

Funny, yore shock at the shift in simulation outcomes based on the latest polling doesn't really indicate your understanding. Go ahead though and tell us more.

 

[okcpokefan12]

Funny, yore shock at the shift in simulation outcomes based on the latest polling doesn't really indicate your understanding. Go ahead though and tell us more.

Explain it then, you fat ****!

 

[davidallen]

Explain it then, you fat ****!

Such a diplomatic conversationalist. Lazy too.

How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work

References 2022 Midterm Election Forecast / 2020 presidential forecast / 2020 Senate forecast / 2016 presidential forecast / 2016 and 2014 Senate forecast / 201…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[aix_xpert]

Funny, yore shock at the shift in simulation outcomes based on the latest polling doesn't really indicate your understanding. Go ahead though and tell us more.

And this is why noone can stand Dems. Its not just that your policies are moronic. You truly think you are better and smarter than others and carry yourself accordingly. Your smugness fits.

As Toon might say: Carry on.

 

[Ponca Dan]

Such a diplomatic conversationalist. Lazy too.

How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work

References 2022 Midterm Election Forecast / 2020 presidential forecast / 2020 Senate forecast / 2016 presidential forecast / 2016 and 2014 Senate forecast / 201…

fivethirtyeight.com

Knowing that he's lazy - knowing that we're all lazy - and knowing you have the answers you're trying to direct us to, why don't you just say what you want to say?

 

[Marocain Poke]

Funny, yore shock at the shift in simulation outcomes based on the latest polling doesn't really indicate your understanding. Go ahead though and tell us more.

So smug.

 

[aix_xpert]

Knowing that he's lazy - knowing that we're all lazy - and knowing you have the answers you're trying to direct us to, why don't you just say what you want to say?

He's gonna start backtracking any minute, if he doesn't bail out already. He knows that the methodology provided by 538 is simply stating probability based upon the model's forecasting. But he decided to call me out for saying that that probability shifted by 12 points (in reality it ended being 13 points) in a single day which calls into question the validity of the model as a whole. But he knows he tried his smug, smarter than thou routine, and only came off looking like the ass that he is. But then again, its not coincidence that the ass is the mascot of the Democratic party.

 

[Syskatine]

And this is why noone can stand Dems. Its not just that your policies are moronic. You truly think you are better and smarter than others and carry yourself accordingly. Your smugness fits.

As Toon might say: Carry on.

Don't be so GD dumb then.

 

[long-duc-dong]

Don't be so GD dumb then.

This is so rich.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

I wonder why Fetterman wants all mail in votes without a date to be counted?

You know exactly why.

 

[Syskatine]

Again, it may just be personal confirmation bias, but this feels like another piece of evidence that there is a red wave coming and that the left has done all they can to try to play up Dem chances to drive their vote.

Lol. You really are something else.

 

[ClintonDavidScott]

This is called "whistling past the graveyard".

Your team's ideas, concepts, beliefs, and leaders are about to be excoriated by the American public tonight. Just bend over and ask them to use lube while you wonder how it all went wrong.

lol

Carry on

 

[my_2cents]

The last Marist poll out of Pennsylvania is a head-scratcher. +6 advantage for Fetterman?

Marist is setting themselves up to look really bad if Oz wins. Of course, if Fetterman wins, Marist will look good.

Currently, Fetterman has a 4% lead over Oz.

Looks like the Marist poll wasn't wrong about this race after all.

 

[my_2cents]

The political equivalent of the football team down 4 TD's in the 3rd quarter talking shit that the other team isn't up by 5 TD's.

This is called "whistling past the graveyard".

Your team's ideas, concepts, beliefs, and leaders are about to be excoriated by the American public tonight. Just bend over and ask them to use lube while you wonder how it all went wrong.

You were saying?

🤣🤣