Remaining Games for potential playoff teams:
1) Alabama: LSU, @ MSU, Mercer, @ Auburn; SEC CCG
Note: The Tide will likely skate into the conference championship game, but they have no impressive wins this year, seriously. The best win for the top ranked team in the country was supposedly the opener over Florida State (a team who is now 2-5 on the year). With wins over 3-5 Vandy, 3-5 Tennessee, 3-5 Ole Miss, 3-5 Arkansas, 5-3 A&M, 5-3 Fresno, and 6-3 Colorado State, the Tide have coasted thus far.
Prognosis: For better or worse, the perception of Alabama is that they are a top four team regardless of what transpires. They would have to lose two games to not make the playoff at this point.
2) Georgia: South Carolina, @ Auburn, Kentucky, @ Georgia Tech, SEC CCG
Note: The Bulldogs have actually accomplished much more than Alabama with wins over Notre Dame and Mississippi State. If any team should be somewhat safe at this point, Georgia is that team.
Prognosis: As long as Notre Dame keeps winning, Georgia should be in with 1 or 0 losses.
3) Wisconsin: @Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, @Minnesota, Big 10 CCG
Note: The Badgers will have gone the entire season without playing a single ranked team. Any one loss in their upcoming games dooms them from playoff consideration, but they still control their own destiny as an undefeated team.
Prognosis: Win out and they are in. One loss knocks them out.
4) Miami: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, @ Pitt, ACC CCG
Note: The next two weeks give the Canes a chance to solidify their standing. They will vault into the top 4 with two wins.
Prognosis: An undefeated Miami would be a lock for the playoff. A 1-loss Miami would be in the mix, but would have an uphill battle even if they won the ACC CCG against Clemson. They would need help at that point.
5) Clemson: @NC State, Florida State, Citadel, @ South Carolina
Note: The loss at Syracuse is an ugly mark on the resume, but the defending champions have a case to be made since they lost their QB for that game. They do not control their own destiny and would need some help.
Prognosis: The Tigers could find themselves as the first team out if Notre Dame beats Miami and runs the table. They need Miami to win to set up what would arguably be a play-in game in the ACC CCG. Obviously if they lose a game along the way, they are out.
6) Notre Dame: Wake Forest, @ Miami, Navy, @ Stanford
Note: The Irish have quietly put together a strong resume. They lost early to Georgia by a single point and have dominant wins over USC and NC State.
Prognosis: Notre Dame will be in if they run the table. At that point they would be 1 point from an undefeated season and that loss will be to another playoff team. The lack of a CCG prohibits them from getting into the picture if they drop a second game.
7) Oklahoma: @OSU, TCU, @KU, West Virginia; Big 12 CCG
Note: The Iowa State loss at least looks better due to the Cyclones recent run, but Oklahoma does not control their own destiny even if they win out. The win over Ohio State is their biggest chip going forward. The problem is that TCU's loss in Ames takes the luster off what could have been the highest ranked opponent in the championship game.
Prognosis: The Sooners can not afford to lose a game. At this point, they may need to cheer for Iowa State and hope for them to run the table to allow them to win a rematch. They also need Ohio State to make the Big 10 CCG and knock off Wisconsin.
8) Ohio State: @Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, @ Michigan; Big 10 CCG
Note: The Buckeyes should be heavy favorites the rest of the way. When compared to other playoff contenders, their resume will not be as impressive overall, but the timing and manner of the Penn State victory will carry a lot of weight. Don't forget that their current AD is on the selection committee, and although he would have to recuse himself when the Buckeyes are considered, it certainly helps their chances.
Prognosis: If Wisconsin gets to the championship game undefeated to play Ohio State, the winner of that game is in the playoff. The loser would be out. If Wisconsin drops a dumb game ahead of time it would jeopardize the certainty of the bid depending on what happens elsewhere.
9) Oklahoma State: Oklahoma, @ ISU, Kansas State, Kansas, Big 12 CCG
Note: Despite the loss to TCU, the Cowboys are actually in a better position to make a run at the playoff than the Horned Frogs due to the possibility of being able to play a top 5-10 opponent in the Big 12 CCG should TCU not drop another game. Additionally it would avenge their only loss.
Prognosis: The Cowboys have the opportunity to make a case, but style points are going to matter. Unfortunately, they do not control their own destiny for the playoffs and need some help. The most important thing is that Notre Dame must lose.
10) TCU: Texas, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, Big 12 CCG
Note: The remaining schedule is difficult, and the Iowa State loss was devastating; however, TCU has an opportunity to get back into consideration by winning out. Like Oklahoma they will be rooting for a potential rematch against Iowa State.
Prognosis: TCU needs help, because if they go undefeated the rest of the way, they will not play a top 5-10 team in the conference championship game.
11) Penn State: @Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, @ Maryland
Note: Penn State does not have a great resume and will struggle to get in versus other 1-loss teams like the ACC-champs, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, the Big 12 champs, and the Big 10 champs.
Prognosis: Penn State does not have the late season opportunities to get back into the playoffs without multiple teams totally blowing it ahead of them in the rankings.
1-loss Virginia Tech and Washington don't seem to have viable paths to get statement wins this late in the season.
1) Alabama: LSU, @ MSU, Mercer, @ Auburn; SEC CCG
Note: The Tide will likely skate into the conference championship game, but they have no impressive wins this year, seriously. The best win for the top ranked team in the country was supposedly the opener over Florida State (a team who is now 2-5 on the year). With wins over 3-5 Vandy, 3-5 Tennessee, 3-5 Ole Miss, 3-5 Arkansas, 5-3 A&M, 5-3 Fresno, and 6-3 Colorado State, the Tide have coasted thus far.
Prognosis: For better or worse, the perception of Alabama is that they are a top four team regardless of what transpires. They would have to lose two games to not make the playoff at this point.
2) Georgia: South Carolina, @ Auburn, Kentucky, @ Georgia Tech, SEC CCG
Note: The Bulldogs have actually accomplished much more than Alabama with wins over Notre Dame and Mississippi State. If any team should be somewhat safe at this point, Georgia is that team.
Prognosis: As long as Notre Dame keeps winning, Georgia should be in with 1 or 0 losses.
3) Wisconsin: @Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, @Minnesota, Big 10 CCG
Note: The Badgers will have gone the entire season without playing a single ranked team. Any one loss in their upcoming games dooms them from playoff consideration, but they still control their own destiny as an undefeated team.
Prognosis: Win out and they are in. One loss knocks them out.
4) Miami: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, @ Pitt, ACC CCG
Note: The next two weeks give the Canes a chance to solidify their standing. They will vault into the top 4 with two wins.
Prognosis: An undefeated Miami would be a lock for the playoff. A 1-loss Miami would be in the mix, but would have an uphill battle even if they won the ACC CCG against Clemson. They would need help at that point.
5) Clemson: @NC State, Florida State, Citadel, @ South Carolina
Note: The loss at Syracuse is an ugly mark on the resume, but the defending champions have a case to be made since they lost their QB for that game. They do not control their own destiny and would need some help.
Prognosis: The Tigers could find themselves as the first team out if Notre Dame beats Miami and runs the table. They need Miami to win to set up what would arguably be a play-in game in the ACC CCG. Obviously if they lose a game along the way, they are out.
6) Notre Dame: Wake Forest, @ Miami, Navy, @ Stanford
Note: The Irish have quietly put together a strong resume. They lost early to Georgia by a single point and have dominant wins over USC and NC State.
Prognosis: Notre Dame will be in if they run the table. At that point they would be 1 point from an undefeated season and that loss will be to another playoff team. The lack of a CCG prohibits them from getting into the picture if they drop a second game.
7) Oklahoma: @OSU, TCU, @KU, West Virginia; Big 12 CCG
Note: The Iowa State loss at least looks better due to the Cyclones recent run, but Oklahoma does not control their own destiny even if they win out. The win over Ohio State is their biggest chip going forward. The problem is that TCU's loss in Ames takes the luster off what could have been the highest ranked opponent in the championship game.
Prognosis: The Sooners can not afford to lose a game. At this point, they may need to cheer for Iowa State and hope for them to run the table to allow them to win a rematch. They also need Ohio State to make the Big 10 CCG and knock off Wisconsin.
8) Ohio State: @Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, @ Michigan; Big 10 CCG
Note: The Buckeyes should be heavy favorites the rest of the way. When compared to other playoff contenders, their resume will not be as impressive overall, but the timing and manner of the Penn State victory will carry a lot of weight. Don't forget that their current AD is on the selection committee, and although he would have to recuse himself when the Buckeyes are considered, it certainly helps their chances.
Prognosis: If Wisconsin gets to the championship game undefeated to play Ohio State, the winner of that game is in the playoff. The loser would be out. If Wisconsin drops a dumb game ahead of time it would jeopardize the certainty of the bid depending on what happens elsewhere.
9) Oklahoma State: Oklahoma, @ ISU, Kansas State, Kansas, Big 12 CCG
Note: Despite the loss to TCU, the Cowboys are actually in a better position to make a run at the playoff than the Horned Frogs due to the possibility of being able to play a top 5-10 opponent in the Big 12 CCG should TCU not drop another game. Additionally it would avenge their only loss.
Prognosis: The Cowboys have the opportunity to make a case, but style points are going to matter. Unfortunately, they do not control their own destiny for the playoffs and need some help. The most important thing is that Notre Dame must lose.
10) TCU: Texas, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, Big 12 CCG
Note: The remaining schedule is difficult, and the Iowa State loss was devastating; however, TCU has an opportunity to get back into consideration by winning out. Like Oklahoma they will be rooting for a potential rematch against Iowa State.
Prognosis: TCU needs help, because if they go undefeated the rest of the way, they will not play a top 5-10 team in the conference championship game.
11) Penn State: @Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, @ Maryland
Note: Penn State does not have a great resume and will struggle to get in versus other 1-loss teams like the ACC-champs, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, the Big 12 champs, and the Big 10 champs.
Prognosis: Penn State does not have the late season opportunities to get back into the playoffs without multiple teams totally blowing it ahead of them in the rankings.
1-loss Virginia Tech and Washington don't seem to have viable paths to get statement wins this late in the season.
