Will the fall come sooner or later? Will it take us with it?
https://thinkmarkets.wordpress.com/...nny-mcmahon-houghton-mifflin-harcourt-288-pp/
https://thinkmarkets.wordpress.com/...nny-mcmahon-houghton-mifflin-harcourt-288-pp/
An Interesting Article About China’s Economy
- Thread starter Ponca Dan
- Start date
Spent several days in Asia (Tokyo, Bangkok, Manilla) - stunning growth since last time in Bangkok and Manilla is booming. I was curious about this growth and looked at debt figures. Phillipines is running at 1/2 the public debt as % of GDP of the United States. In conversations with a CxO of a large Asian telecom he noted that much of the growth is coming from Chinese investors. My point in all this is that the exposure on a global basis to instability in China is through the roof.
Yeah, that's all cool and stuff, but will any of this have an adverse reaction to the price of my local Moo Goo Gai Pan?
You have an ARM or traditional mortgage? Might make a difference in how much you have left over for MGGP...
Behind the scenes (very quietly), they are starting to make moves to correct the problems outlined in this article (which is very well written by the way). I am working on a transaction that will be the first ever distressed debt auction where the sellers are Chinese banks and the buyers are Western institutional investors. It is almost unheard of that the Chinese would admit they have a serious problem. It is even more unheard of that they would allow Western investors in the henhouse. They have over a trillion of non performing loans, so if we can pull of the first auction, there will be many more to come. The lack of traditional credit protections and lack of asset transparency and pricing will most surely indicate extremely deep discounts, but all of these real estate assets have at least some value. But it is clear the Communist government is willing to allow some clean-up of a very messy situation, as they recognize what this article says....."You can't postpone the inevitable forever"
