So you read the introduction by the moderator and skimmed the actual article? Okay, I do stuff like that, too, when I’m convinced going in that I won’t like what I hear.
I actually believe it is a very thought provoking thesis, one I’d never heard before. I think he makes a good point that there is a delineated connection between the same mindset that dragged us into VietNam and Afghanistan, and that mindset produced the same humiliating results both times, both to our military's reputation and the actual results on the ground in the aftermath. I also appreciated that he recognized the primary difference between the two wars: VietNam was fought with American slaves via the draft, which led to violent discontent by the people, while Afghanistan was fought by volunteers, which allowed the public to ignore the carnage being unleashed in its name. As he put it the mindset that got us in WW1 led to the mindset that brought us to WW2. So, after the debacle of Vietnam our political elites never examined or questioned what led to our humiliation, which led us straight into Afghanistan. His hope is that now our elites will know better. (Considering they’re on the brink of doing it yet again in Ukraine, I would say they have learned nothing.)
Went back and read it carefully.
So rejecting the premise on Afghanistan (not Vietnam), how would one win that war? Did he explore how the USoA could have won either? No he did not.
If we can not go to war when we have been attacked then we can never go to war. You might make a case for Iraq but not Afghanistan.
I am neither a pacifist or warmonger.
US troops have kept the peace in Korea for 70 years with a small force. How? NK knows that the small force is a guarantee of overwhelming force behind it should it be attacked.
If NATO put sufficient troops in Ukraine to stop Russia from a swift victory then Putin would know that should he attack he will have to deal with a much larger force that he can not defeat long term.
People make 2 wrong assumptions. Either Putin is a reckless fool or that Russia is on par with the UsoA.
1 assumes Putin would attack a NATO tripwire force knowing that it ends badly for him and possibly the world but no way Russia survives a real war with NATO. Nukes ensure no winners. Putin is not a jihadi.
2 Assumes Russia could win such a war if NATO is truly committed to winning or even America alone if it came to it.
Someone threw up raw numbers and then said Russia had 5th gen fighters implying some sort of parity. They field 14! Poland alone has double that at 32. @ 2 to 1 kill rate with Poland in favor to Russia, they are still out of jets and their industrial capacity is diddly. The f35 however would probably have a 10 to 1 kill rate leaving Poland ~29 and Russia 0.
America has over 100 f22s with 200 made and over 360 f35s that could enter the theater and Russia would have no 5th gens.
But I see 2 courses to avoiding this war. NATO/EU hands over the Ukraine without a fight or It puts troops in Ukraine to prevent Putin from invading. The former invites future demands and aggression the latter will determine if Putin is a reckless fool and the new Hitler takes us all down with him or whether he admits there will not be a greater Russia at this time , packs up and goes home to enjoy his billions in retirement.