I have avoided this space for a number of reasons, mainly because it is a cesspool of racism, misogyny, and ignorance.
That said, I want to invite the vast, vast majority on this space to prepare for what will likely transpire over the course of next evening. You need to prepare yourselves for what is both inevitable and has been driven by one of the worst political electoral strategies we have seen in the modern era of presidential elections.
I realize that you don't get this information in the echo chambers of Fox News or whatever lunatic right-wing websites from where most of you get your news and political commentary.
To begin, women are the majoritarian voting gender in the United States. Women, by and large, do not like Trump--at a margin anywhere between 10 and 25 percent, depending upon the state in question--as you are soon to observe tomorrow evening. You can debate or discuss the reasons why this is the case, but it is an objective characteristic of the composition of the current American electorate. This means that Trump operates at an inherent deficit in most states. To win, he must generate enough turnout to overcome the structural disadvantage. This simply isn't going to happen, particularly given the impact of the Dobbs decision. Women are motivated in a way that they haven't been in decades and they will vote for Harris by large margins.
Next, despite Trump's unhinged and largely unchecked attempt to portray the economy as a hellscape: this doesn't square with reality. The stock market is at an all-time high, we are operating at full employment, crime is down, and the notorious "Misery Index" is among the lowest it has been in the past 50 years. While Trump has been free to project this dystopian view of American society, most Americans are not trapped in the right-wing echo chambers of the typical Trump supporter. They do not watch Fox News and they don't even know about the bizarre websites where many of you get the oft-contrived stories that you enjoy reading and sharing with your other like-minded friends.
The potential bellwether tomorrow evening is the State of North Carolina: results will be known there by around 10 pm CT, and if Harris has won there, then the results of the election will be known by midnight. If Trump eeks out a victory in North Carolina, then attention will turn to monitoring the conventionally known swing states, but the only question will be when Harris is declared the winner. Not if. The composition of the electorate means that this result will not be in question.
And so, in the wake of this inevitable result, the question will become whether adults will wrest control of the Republican Party from the Trumpists and their ilk. If adults commandeer the party by rejecting the tenets of Trumpism and focusing instead on winning fiscal issues like being pro-business, favoring regulatory reform, and advocating for deficit reduction and enhancing government efficiency, then the GOP may yet rise from the ashes. If not, it will go the way of the Whigs and be replaced by a coalition of moderate Dems and Republicans who are likely to become the majoritarian party in America. The silver lining in all of this turmoil will be that, ultimately, our politics will revert back to the mean and we can look forward to turning the page on a very sorry chapter of American history.
Enjoy your evenings tomorrow night.
