Will Rahm Romp Tomorrow?

[Anodyne]

Chicago's first round of city elections are tomorrow. This is a non-partisan election, with a run-off in April if needed. Rahm really only has one challenger with a pulse, the progressive reformer and Cook County Board Commissioner Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia. Probably the best thing that happened to Rahm was the pre-campaign blitz by Chicago Teacher's Union President Karen Lewis. They are sworn enemies, and Lewis got the best of Rahm during the teacher's strike. She's a polarizing figure, but also someone that would have mobilized a left base like no one since Harold Washington. Rahm began 'running against' Lewis well before any actual campaign commenced---he assembled (bought or extorted) a team that could neutralize Lewis' momentum, and devised a strategy to run hard to the left. Unfortunately, Lewis was diagnosed with a brain tumor just days before she was set to announce he candidacy. She's endorsed Chuy, who has run a pretty disappointing campaign.

Rahm has something like four times as much money as his four challengers combined, half of which he has siphoned into a PAC to blow up adlermanic races in the wards. Will the wave of left-center acrimony in the neighborhoods be enough to unsettle Rahm's vice-grip on city council? Probably not, but I think we'll see four or five independent aldermen elected. There might be a socialist who gets into a run-off in Pilsen, and in my ward a lefty HS social studies teacher has a legit shot at unseating the family in charge since 1970 (the same family who nurtured the career of one of its obscure helmet-haired in-laws, Rod Blagojevich).

The only real drama is whether Rahm can avoid a runoff. I predict, in an embarrassing, record-low turnout:

Rahm 52%
Chuy 30%
Fioretti 10%
Other guys 8%

I will include this in my post, so as to save some of you the trouble of typing it: "Who cares. I hope Chicago falls into the lake."

 

[Anodyne]

Mixed feelings. Chuy has forced a runoff. Karen Lewis may have won outright. My machine alder-creature looks like she will avoid a run off by a percentage point or two.

Chuy is my homeboy.

 

[JimmyBob]

If a "looser" is forced into a runoff by another "looser" - who wins?

 

[Anodyne]

14 of 50 aldermen to runoffs. Better than usual.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

This story is kind of interesting: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/feb/24/chicago-police-detain-americans-black-site?CMP=share_btn_fb

 

[Anodyne]

Originally posted by Marshal Jim Duncan:

This story is kind of interesting: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/feb/24/chicago-police-detain-americans-black-site?CMP=share_btn_fb

I read that yesterday. It's horrible but not that surprising. I've read hundreds of Chicago Police Department "Red Squad" surveillance and investigation reports from the 60s and 70s, and it would be naive to think that kind of chicanery just disappeared in 1973. I also have a colleague who is writing about Chicago police torture in the 80s---and I don't mean Elliott Stabler-style boundary pushing or the occasional punch to a handcuffed suspect. I mean electrical currents to the nuts and a circular saw over the tip of your shoes, etc. Also, there was a story last week about an Army MP torturer who honed his skills as Chicago police detective. There's an endemic problem.

 

[Anodyne]

It's D-Day for Rahm vs. Chuy, consensus liberal vs. progressive, North Shore suburb vs. the Little Village barrio, Clinton acolyte vs. Harold Washington disciple, matzo vs. menudo, missing finger vs. bushy mustache, etc.

As expected, Rahm ran a tight and aggressive run-off campaign. He continued to tack left, and in what I think was a stroke of brilliance, embraced his 'asshole' image. He appeared in a TV ad swaddled in a sweater-vest, where he addressed the camera and admitted that he could be 'hard-headed' sometimes but hey I get shit done. The debates were lively, Chuy pressed Rahm on his accomplishments, while Rahm hit Chuy hard for not having any definite budget plans (said he would form a commission and come up with a plan after he takes office).

With his trillions of dollars in campaign cash, Rahm was able to rely on stalking horses for his dirtiest work. Rep Bobby Rush tried to stoke old black-brown animosity. Mark Kirk said Chuy would turn Chicago into Detroit. Rahm's neighbor was a moderator for the final debate, and asked Chuy about his son's involvement in a gang 20 years ago: 'If you can't keep your son out of trouble, how can we trust you to keep Chicago out of trouble?' Rahm dramatically objected to the tone of of the question lol).

Polls have consistently shown Rahm up by 10-15 points. But much of Chuy's base is traditionally under-polled. There have already been 2,000 complaints about polling, judging, and electioneering violations, man what a great city. Early votng was way up across the city, but much more so in white wards, Rahm's great bastion of support. It's cold and rainy today but I don't think enough to keep people from the polls. One wild card is that it is spring break for Chicago Public Schools, and Chuy's most effective foot soldiers are from the Chicago Teacher's Union, so they will be heavy on the ground for GOTV efforts. Reports from precincts are that turnout is way down. Aldermanic run-offs will give a boost to Chuy, since many of them are in wards where he is relatively strong.

My progressive, independent. and reform comrades are optimistic about a Chuy victory, but I don't see it all. I predict 54% Rahm 46% Chuy, with a pathetic and embarrassing turnout in the low-30s.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

Did you read John Judis' recent peice about how neither one of them have any answers that will effectively address any of the problems plaguing Chicago?

 

[Anodyne]

Originally posted by Marshal Jim Duncan:

Did you read John Judis' recent peice about how neither one of them have any answers that will effectively address any of the problems plaguing Chicago?

I'll look it up, but that sentiment is not uncommon across the political spectrum.

Polls are closed. Turnout has exceeded my expectations, maybe past 40%. Rahm is up 56-44 with 53% in, but it's still too early to draw much from that since we don't know which wards have reported. Several incumbent aldermen are in trouble.