I've posted all of this in various threads throughout the season. Let's start with what we need.
When the NCAA committee decides on at large bids, they are going to be inviting 36 teams to participate. There are 68 teams in the tournament and 32 automatic qualifiers. The NCAA committee will rank the potential at large teams 1 through about 45. The top 30 will be fairly obvious, and not worried about missing the cut. Teams 31-45 will be where they have to delve deep into resume and make decisions about who gets included and who goes to the NIT. At this point, it seems pretty likely that OSU will be one of those 14 teams, unless we win at least 2 of our remaining 4, or lose all 4, and don't do much of anything in the Big 12 tournament.
It is hard to compare resumes of teams that play in disparate conferences. For example, how does OSU (16-10, 33 in NET )stack up against Utah State (19-7, 37 in the NET)? The NET is meant to be a cheat code, to help the committee compare one team against another. It may not be the only thing they use, but you can bet that it will be a significant part of the discussion.
Whether you believe that the NET is a huge part of the decision, or not, I'm sure that you will agree that there is a NET dividing line, where almost all teams above the line make the tournament, and where most teams that miss the tournament have a worse NET rating. You can attribute that to coincidence if you like, but it doesn't change the fact that a dividing line will exist.
Last season, I think the number was 49. Every team with a NET better than 49 (except OSU which was not eligible) made the field. Earlier I noted that there are 36 at large bids, but there are a bunch of automatic qualifiers that have a very good NET ranking. For every one of those, the dividing line drops below 36. I read recently that the current projected NET dividing line is 47.
Using that logic, OSU probably should feel really good if our NET stays on the good side of 45. We were 33 in the NET prior to today's game. Our NET will drop, but IMO, any regular season win will keep us from dropping below 45. That's how it works when 3 of your remaining opponents have NETs better than 30, and the other 1 is somewhere around 50.
You can argue that the NCAA hates OSU, or that our non-conference performance sucked. But, you also have to consider the strength of the Big 12. 8-10 in this conference is an indicator that you can compete with other potential at large teams.
Now we move on to what we have.
This is where it gets problematic. IMO, we have no future NBA players on this roster. We likely have 1 player (KB) who will be one of the 15 All Big 12 team selections. Our rotation includes only 4 or 5 guys that would make the regular rotations of multiple other Big 12 teams (KB, CA, JMW, BT, and maybe MC). We have 2 other guys, who can play regularly without consistently having a net negative impact (TS and WN). Boynton is forced to give minutes to 2 other guys (Q and CH), who might occasionally do something good, but are much more likely to hurt us than help us (IMO, he plays them much more than he should, but he is pretty much forced to play them at this point). If AA had not been injured, we would have significantly more margin for error. Especially considering how well he was playing in the 4 games prior to getting injured.
If you are a Boynton hater, you can say that we are even further hand-cuffed by his poor coaching. If your are a Boynton hoper (I find it hard to believe that there are any OSU fans who are convinced that he is a great coach, but I know there are some who are hoping he can be successful) then, you might say he is doing what he can, and needs to do a better job with future rosters.
In this conference, getting to 8-10 is a high hurdle. Especially with this roster (and many will add, with this coach). Hopefully, they can find a way to eke out at least one more. It's a daunting task, but not impossible.
When the NCAA committee decides on at large bids, they are going to be inviting 36 teams to participate. There are 68 teams in the tournament and 32 automatic qualifiers. The NCAA committee will rank the potential at large teams 1 through about 45. The top 30 will be fairly obvious, and not worried about missing the cut. Teams 31-45 will be where they have to delve deep into resume and make decisions about who gets included and who goes to the NIT. At this point, it seems pretty likely that OSU will be one of those 14 teams, unless we win at least 2 of our remaining 4, or lose all 4, and don't do much of anything in the Big 12 tournament.
It is hard to compare resumes of teams that play in disparate conferences. For example, how does OSU (16-10, 33 in NET )stack up against Utah State (19-7, 37 in the NET)? The NET is meant to be a cheat code, to help the committee compare one team against another. It may not be the only thing they use, but you can bet that it will be a significant part of the discussion.
Whether you believe that the NET is a huge part of the decision, or not, I'm sure that you will agree that there is a NET dividing line, where almost all teams above the line make the tournament, and where most teams that miss the tournament have a worse NET rating. You can attribute that to coincidence if you like, but it doesn't change the fact that a dividing line will exist.
Last season, I think the number was 49. Every team with a NET better than 49 (except OSU which was not eligible) made the field. Earlier I noted that there are 36 at large bids, but there are a bunch of automatic qualifiers that have a very good NET ranking. For every one of those, the dividing line drops below 36. I read recently that the current projected NET dividing line is 47.
Using that logic, OSU probably should feel really good if our NET stays on the good side of 45. We were 33 in the NET prior to today's game. Our NET will drop, but IMO, any regular season win will keep us from dropping below 45. That's how it works when 3 of your remaining opponents have NETs better than 30, and the other 1 is somewhere around 50.
You can argue that the NCAA hates OSU, or that our non-conference performance sucked. But, you also have to consider the strength of the Big 12. 8-10 in this conference is an indicator that you can compete with other potential at large teams.
Now we move on to what we have.
This is where it gets problematic. IMO, we have no future NBA players on this roster. We likely have 1 player (KB) who will be one of the 15 All Big 12 team selections. Our rotation includes only 4 or 5 guys that would make the regular rotations of multiple other Big 12 teams (KB, CA, JMW, BT, and maybe MC). We have 2 other guys, who can play regularly without consistently having a net negative impact (TS and WN). Boynton is forced to give minutes to 2 other guys (Q and CH), who might occasionally do something good, but are much more likely to hurt us than help us (IMO, he plays them much more than he should, but he is pretty much forced to play them at this point). If AA had not been injured, we would have significantly more margin for error. Especially considering how well he was playing in the 4 games prior to getting injured.
If you are a Boynton hater, you can say that we are even further hand-cuffed by his poor coaching. If your are a Boynton hoper (I find it hard to believe that there are any OSU fans who are convinced that he is a great coach, but I know there are some who are hoping he can be successful) then, you might say he is doing what he can, and needs to do a better job with future rosters.
In this conference, getting to 8-10 is a high hurdle. Especially with this roster (and many will add, with this coach). Hopefully, they can find a way to eke out at least one more. It's a daunting task, but not impossible.
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