Industry sources have told me BYU is the one no-brainer for Big 12 expansion.
The Cougars have a decades-long tradition of winning football, all-around athletic success and a worldwide following, courtesy of its status as the educational Mormon mecca.
BYU isn’t trying to build a big fan base. BYU has a big fan base.
The Cougars in 2019 (the last non-Covid season) drew an average of 59,457 fans to LaVell Edwards Stadium, which seats 63,470. In the two times zone west of Central, BYU ranked second in home attendance, trailing only Washington but ahead of Southern Cal and Oregon.
BYU fans would eat up a steady diet of Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia.
Better yet, the Cougars’ television draw would be a welcome balm to a Big 12 sweating at the revenue dip coming without OU and Texas. BYU’s viewership numbers don’t get anywhere near the Sooners or the Longhorns, but any network would be intrigued by the Cougars.
According to researcher Zach Miller, BYU ranked 46th in the nation in football viewership per game over the five-year period of 2015-19. That’s with no conference, a rollercoaster schedule and often unenviable time slots, such as Friday nights.
Best yet, with the oncoming streaming wave, BYU would attract Mormons all over the globe to sign up for internet viewing.
There are some downsides to BYU.
Provo, Utah, is 1,929 miles from Morgantown, West Virginia. The Big 12 would be stretched literally from mountain range (Rockies) to mountain range (Appalachians). But West Virginians themselves say travel inconveniences are not that big a deal to the Mountaineers, especially if it provides conference stability.
BYU will not compete on Sundays. That’s an easy fix. Don’t schedule the Cougars on Sundays. Don’t schedule conference championships on Sundays. These are serious times. We can’t be worrying about the dates of the conference baseball tournament.
BYU’s honor code would be an issue. A variety of protests were staged in 2016 when the Big 12 considered expanding with Brigham Young. LGBT advocacy groups wrote letters to the Big 12 office and presidents, urging they not invite BYU.
BYU in 2020 changed its honor code, deleting a section on “homosexual behavior,” though the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has maintained its stance against same-sex marriages. That makes BYU not so much different from Baylor and the Baptists.
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To the Cougars’ credit, they rarely have responded to claims of discrimination with their own claims of religious discrimination.
And there is some hypocrisy involved. All those Pac-12 schools that for decades have refused to consider BYU for conference membership? They certainly will compete against the Cougars. BYU has played football against every Pac-12 member except Oregon, Colorado and Stanford, just since 2014.
After BYU, should the Big 12 add one other member and stop at 10, or add three more and go to 12?
Adding four total gives the Big 12 more stability. But adding two gives the Big 12 more money, since the 11th and 12th members would unlikely mean a big enough financial bump to warrant two extra mouths to feed.
Is increased stability worth the economic haircut Big 12 schools would endure? I say no, but some smart people say yes.
Using Zach Miller’s two metrics – TV viewership and a ranking composed of attendance, social media following, market size/share and the Wall Street Journal’s estimated program value – the top contenders for the Big 12, and their national slotting in conference allure, are:
42. BYU; 57. Central Florida; 60. Houston; 62. Boise State; 64. Memphis; 67. Cincinnati; 73. Southern Methodist.
Boise State would be an intriguing 10th member. The Broncos have a budding brand in football, Idaho’s population is exploding, up to 1.8 million, a 50% increase from the turn of the century, and the television possibilities are interesting.
With BYU and Boise State, the Big 12 could become a four-window conference, offering networks games at 11 a.m. (Central), 2:30 p.m., 6 p.m. and 9:30 p.m. The Big 12, for example, could offer Fox a Boise State or BYU home game every Saturday night, 8:30 p.m. Mountain time, through October (taking a November break for the cold).
And the long trip to Provo could be lessened in some sports with a two-game trip. Boise and Provo are only 382 miles apart.
But some of the other contenders are not shabby, either.
Central Florida has proven to play quality football and is one of America’s biggest universities, with 71,000 students. UCF has 150,000 alumni living just in Greater Orlando, which is twice as many alumni as TCU has living anywhere.
The Knights are serious about football. They’ve got a new stadium and just hired Gus Malzahn as football coach.
Cincinnati is a large, public school, too, with a solid academic reputation. The Bearcats just played in the Sugar Bowl, and they have great basketball tradition. But their branding and following is just so-so.
Houston has built back its athletics since the demise of the Southwest Conference.
Football reached the Peach Bowl six seasons ago and beat Florida State. Basketball was in the Final Four this very spring. Houston’s commitment to facilities is excellent, similar to what TCU did when it was between the SWC and the Big 12. But the Cougars’ national branding is nothing special.
SMU and Memphis are non-starters for me. SMU doesn’t move any needles with television and Memphis doesn’t even have its own stadium or basketball arena.
That means five prime candidates for Big 12 expansion. BYU, Boise State, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston, for either two or four spots.
And Brigham Young is at the top.
The Cougars have a decades-long tradition of winning football, all-around athletic success and a worldwide following, courtesy of its status as the educational Mormon mecca.
BYU isn’t trying to build a big fan base. BYU has a big fan base.
The Cougars in 2019 (the last non-Covid season) drew an average of 59,457 fans to LaVell Edwards Stadium, which seats 63,470. In the two times zone west of Central, BYU ranked second in home attendance, trailing only Washington but ahead of Southern Cal and Oregon.
BYU fans would eat up a steady diet of Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia.
Better yet, the Cougars’ television draw would be a welcome balm to a Big 12 sweating at the revenue dip coming without OU and Texas. BYU’s viewership numbers don’t get anywhere near the Sooners or the Longhorns, but any network would be intrigued by the Cougars.
According to researcher Zach Miller, BYU ranked 46th in the nation in football viewership per game over the five-year period of 2015-19. That’s with no conference, a rollercoaster schedule and often unenviable time slots, such as Friday nights.
Best yet, with the oncoming streaming wave, BYU would attract Mormons all over the globe to sign up for internet viewing.
There are some downsides to BYU.
Provo, Utah, is 1,929 miles from Morgantown, West Virginia. The Big 12 would be stretched literally from mountain range (Rockies) to mountain range (Appalachians). But West Virginians themselves say travel inconveniences are not that big a deal to the Mountaineers, especially if it provides conference stability.
BYU will not compete on Sundays. That’s an easy fix. Don’t schedule the Cougars on Sundays. Don’t schedule conference championships on Sundays. These are serious times. We can’t be worrying about the dates of the conference baseball tournament.
BYU’s honor code would be an issue. A variety of protests were staged in 2016 when the Big 12 considered expanding with Brigham Young. LGBT advocacy groups wrote letters to the Big 12 office and presidents, urging they not invite BYU.
BYU in 2020 changed its honor code, deleting a section on “homosexual behavior,” though the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has maintained its stance against same-sex marriages. That makes BYU not so much different from Baylor and the Baptists.
Tramel's Scissortales:Why a 12-team College Football Playoff will enhance regular season
To the Cougars’ credit, they rarely have responded to claims of discrimination with their own claims of religious discrimination.
And there is some hypocrisy involved. All those Pac-12 schools that for decades have refused to consider BYU for conference membership? They certainly will compete against the Cougars. BYU has played football against every Pac-12 member except Oregon, Colorado and Stanford, just since 2014.
After BYU, should the Big 12 add one other member and stop at 10, or add three more and go to 12?
Adding four total gives the Big 12 more stability. But adding two gives the Big 12 more money, since the 11th and 12th members would unlikely mean a big enough financial bump to warrant two extra mouths to feed.
Is increased stability worth the economic haircut Big 12 schools would endure? I say no, but some smart people say yes.
Using Zach Miller’s two metrics – TV viewership and a ranking composed of attendance, social media following, market size/share and the Wall Street Journal’s estimated program value – the top contenders for the Big 12, and their national slotting in conference allure, are:
42. BYU; 57. Central Florida; 60. Houston; 62. Boise State; 64. Memphis; 67. Cincinnati; 73. Southern Methodist.
Boise State would be an intriguing 10th member. The Broncos have a budding brand in football, Idaho’s population is exploding, up to 1.8 million, a 50% increase from the turn of the century, and the television possibilities are interesting.
With BYU and Boise State, the Big 12 could become a four-window conference, offering networks games at 11 a.m. (Central), 2:30 p.m., 6 p.m. and 9:30 p.m. The Big 12, for example, could offer Fox a Boise State or BYU home game every Saturday night, 8:30 p.m. Mountain time, through October (taking a November break for the cold).
And the long trip to Provo could be lessened in some sports with a two-game trip. Boise and Provo are only 382 miles apart.
But some of the other contenders are not shabby, either.
Central Florida has proven to play quality football and is one of America’s biggest universities, with 71,000 students. UCF has 150,000 alumni living just in Greater Orlando, which is twice as many alumni as TCU has living anywhere.
The Knights are serious about football. They’ve got a new stadium and just hired Gus Malzahn as football coach.
Cincinnati is a large, public school, too, with a solid academic reputation. The Bearcats just played in the Sugar Bowl, and they have great basketball tradition. But their branding and following is just so-so.
Houston has built back its athletics since the demise of the Southwest Conference.
Football reached the Peach Bowl six seasons ago and beat Florida State. Basketball was in the Final Four this very spring. Houston’s commitment to facilities is excellent, similar to what TCU did when it was between the SWC and the Big 12. But the Cougars’ national branding is nothing special.
SMU and Memphis are non-starters for me. SMU doesn’t move any needles with television and Memphis doesn’t even have its own stadium or basketball arena.
That means five prime candidates for Big 12 expansion. BYU, Boise State, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston, for either two or four spots.
And Brigham Young is at the top.
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