There is absolutely nothing like starting conference play off with a road game against the defending champion and preseason favorite to motivate and challenge a team. That is exactly the place the Cowboys find themselves this weekend, on the road in Waco attempting to erase the memories of championship game that was only inches away from providing a berth in the college football playoff. Although both teams return enough of their core to once again compete for the Big 12 title, they each of lingering questions at this point of the season regarding how the next men up will fill the vacated roles of players now on NFL rosters.
Everyone on this message board fully understands what the Cowboys lost from a year ago, particularly defensively. Oklahoma State had 5 guys make regular NFL rosters: Malcolm Rodriguez (Lions-LB), Christian Holmes (Commanders-RCB), Devin Harper (Cowboys-LB), Jaylen Warren (Steelers-RB), and Josh Sills (Eagles-RG). Israel Antwine (Jaguars-DT) and Tay Martin (49ers-WR) made NFL practice squads while Tanner McAllister (Ohio St), Jarrick Bernard-Converse (LSU), and Jayden Jernigan (Missouri) transferred to other Power Five programs. This does not even account for quality Big 12 players like Kolby Harvel-Peel and Jordan Sterns. The 2nd and 3rd levels of the Cowboy defense were completely re-made in the offseason. The good news is that Jason Taylor, Jabbar Muhammad, and Korie Black had begun to earn starter level minutes as the season went along, so the back seven did get a nice boost in the rebuild, but having to replace both linebackers and the other two safety spots has put the Cowboys on the front end of a season long learning curve. The offense leaned on Jaylen Warren and to a lesser extent Tay Martin all season. To this point the Cowboys are still searching to replace the explosive plays in the run game vacated by Warren's departure, but the overall depth at the receiver spots is a strength.
Going into the Baylor game, the biggest questions about the Cowboys are: 1) Can Spencer Sanders elevate his play consistently and carry a team offensively without being careless with the football? 2) How will the Offensive line do against a talented defensive front? 3) Will the run game be able to establish enough of a threat without being reliant on Sanders to run the ball? 4) Will the linebackers be alignment and assignment sound? 5) Will the 2nd and 3rd levels of the defense tackle and communicate well? We will look at these questions later, but the answers will all play huge roles in the flow and outcome of this weekend's game.
On the other side, Baylor also had five players make NFL rosters for their rookie seasons: Jalen Pitre (Texans-SS), Terrel Bernard (Bills-WLB), JT Woods ( Chargers-FS), Tristan Ebner (Bears-KR/RB), and Tyquan Thornton (Patriots-WR). Drew Estrada (Texans-WR), Kalon Barnes (Dolphins-CB), and Xavier Newman (Titans-OG) all made practice squads, while bruiser Abram Smith exhausted his eligibility. Basically, Baylor is in a very similar situation to the Cowboys, losing most of the back end of their defense and a couple offensive skill guys responsible for their big, explosive plays. Their defensive strength is up front, but unlike the Cowboys, they do return and experienced core of their linebacking group with Dillon Doyle, Matt Jones, and pass rush specialist Bryson Jackson. Baylor has proven to be very stingy against the run, but has shown that they have not yet fully replaced the production and reliability of the guys lost in the secondary. Additionally, they are still looking to replace the big play ability at RB and go to consistency at WR. How well Baylor demonstrates that they have replaced the playmaking ability lost from last year will go a long way towards the outcome of this game. Let's look at 4 players, two on each side of the ball.
1--Jalen Pitre was one of the most impactful defensive players in the Big 12 for the past three seasons and that productivity has carried over into his first few NFL games. He is not someone that can be replaced by one player. The Bears have moved Al Walcott to that "STAR" position from corner in order to get more play-making, but even though he has been very solid, he does not impact the game in the same way as Pitre did from that spot. Additionally, moving Walcott from corner took a lot of experience from that group, and they have had some issues flare up in coverage as a result. Losing Jalen Pitre was a big loss. If you had spoken to the OSU coaches the past two seasons, you would have known that #8 was someone that influenced offensive game plans. That player does not exist right now in the backend, at least not at this point in the player's career. The Cowboys like the match-ups of their receiver group versus Baylor's secondary.
2--Terrel Bernard was big hitter and playmaker defensively. He flew downhill against the run, but could also cover slot receivers across the field in man to man. He was very dangerous as a blitzer coming off the edge or on a delay. His ability to read and react allowed Baylor to align to stop the pass, yet get to run fits in time to aggressively stop the run. Bryson Jackson is showing that he is capable of fulfilling the pass rush aspect of this spot, but no one is replicating Bernard's quick diagnosis of plays and big hitting profile. Like Jalen Pitre, he was a player that required extra attention.
Baylor's defense uses multiple fronts (4 man, 3 man, bear) to go with very aggressive designs and structure on the backend (multiple blitzes, creepers, etc.). They play games with the offense by simulating lots of pressure, but bringing only 4 or sometimes 5 (often an outside edge rusher). They get the offense to anticipate blitz from one side to influence the play away, but then slide coverage to that side while dropping the edge pressure and bringing the rush from somewhere else. This causes quarterbacks to make reads that lead to throwing right into coverage and linemen to slide protections away from the actual rusher. Meanwhile, Baylor winds up dropping seven with brackets or deep safeties over the top who will break on balls thrown in front. They do a very good job of setting the edge defensively and funneling the run game to their strength in the middle.
Siaki Ika is a fantastic presence at nose. His ability to play two gaps while pushing the offensive line backwards is a huge advantage for Baylor in defending the run. Not only do they get the benefit of penetration in the backfield that disrupts the mid zone run game and keeps the offensive linemen from getting lateral movement along the line of scrimmage, he usually absorbs a second blocker without getting pushed off his spot. This frees up the inside backers to roam and hunt the ball carriers more easily. For the Cowboys to have sustained success in the run game, they have to: get lateral movement along the defensive front and find a way to block the edge defender. Ika is not going to chase plays down, so getting him moving laterally is a starting point for both of those things. This is a game where the Cowboy backs' ability to block the edge defender looms large as does the running backs willingness to cut with urgency and get up through any daylight they see. Due to the way Baylor defends the run, the threat of the quarterback run is going to have to play a larger role than normal. Look for more true zone-read and option looks to go with some of the RPO and designed QB run game. The Cowboys will work to get the ball on the perimeter to open up things between the tackles.
Baylor rotates 7-8 guys up front, so the defensive line is not a 1-man show, but look for Oklahoma State to stretch the field horizontally with tempo to get those linemen tired and in the routine of moving laterally to cover sideline to sideline. Hopefully this opens up more creases and gaps inside. Success there creates opportunities to pick on the aggressive secondary on play-action down the seam and to the post. The corners are athletic, but inexperienced. Against Texas State and Iowa State, they turned receivers loose down the field and were fortunate to not surrender many successful big passing plays. The Cowboys will test them.
(Part 2 below)
Everyone on this message board fully understands what the Cowboys lost from a year ago, particularly defensively. Oklahoma State had 5 guys make regular NFL rosters: Malcolm Rodriguez (Lions-LB), Christian Holmes (Commanders-RCB), Devin Harper (Cowboys-LB), Jaylen Warren (Steelers-RB), and Josh Sills (Eagles-RG). Israel Antwine (Jaguars-DT) and Tay Martin (49ers-WR) made NFL practice squads while Tanner McAllister (Ohio St), Jarrick Bernard-Converse (LSU), and Jayden Jernigan (Missouri) transferred to other Power Five programs. This does not even account for quality Big 12 players like Kolby Harvel-Peel and Jordan Sterns. The 2nd and 3rd levels of the Cowboy defense were completely re-made in the offseason. The good news is that Jason Taylor, Jabbar Muhammad, and Korie Black had begun to earn starter level minutes as the season went along, so the back seven did get a nice boost in the rebuild, but having to replace both linebackers and the other two safety spots has put the Cowboys on the front end of a season long learning curve. The offense leaned on Jaylen Warren and to a lesser extent Tay Martin all season. To this point the Cowboys are still searching to replace the explosive plays in the run game vacated by Warren's departure, but the overall depth at the receiver spots is a strength.
Going into the Baylor game, the biggest questions about the Cowboys are: 1) Can Spencer Sanders elevate his play consistently and carry a team offensively without being careless with the football? 2) How will the Offensive line do against a talented defensive front? 3) Will the run game be able to establish enough of a threat without being reliant on Sanders to run the ball? 4) Will the linebackers be alignment and assignment sound? 5) Will the 2nd and 3rd levels of the defense tackle and communicate well? We will look at these questions later, but the answers will all play huge roles in the flow and outcome of this weekend's game.
On the other side, Baylor also had five players make NFL rosters for their rookie seasons: Jalen Pitre (Texans-SS), Terrel Bernard (Bills-WLB), JT Woods ( Chargers-FS), Tristan Ebner (Bears-KR/RB), and Tyquan Thornton (Patriots-WR). Drew Estrada (Texans-WR), Kalon Barnes (Dolphins-CB), and Xavier Newman (Titans-OG) all made practice squads, while bruiser Abram Smith exhausted his eligibility. Basically, Baylor is in a very similar situation to the Cowboys, losing most of the back end of their defense and a couple offensive skill guys responsible for their big, explosive plays. Their defensive strength is up front, but unlike the Cowboys, they do return and experienced core of their linebacking group with Dillon Doyle, Matt Jones, and pass rush specialist Bryson Jackson. Baylor has proven to be very stingy against the run, but has shown that they have not yet fully replaced the production and reliability of the guys lost in the secondary. Additionally, they are still looking to replace the big play ability at RB and go to consistency at WR. How well Baylor demonstrates that they have replaced the playmaking ability lost from last year will go a long way towards the outcome of this game. Let's look at 4 players, two on each side of the ball.
1--Jalen Pitre was one of the most impactful defensive players in the Big 12 for the past three seasons and that productivity has carried over into his first few NFL games. He is not someone that can be replaced by one player. The Bears have moved Al Walcott to that "STAR" position from corner in order to get more play-making, but even though he has been very solid, he does not impact the game in the same way as Pitre did from that spot. Additionally, moving Walcott from corner took a lot of experience from that group, and they have had some issues flare up in coverage as a result. Losing Jalen Pitre was a big loss. If you had spoken to the OSU coaches the past two seasons, you would have known that #8 was someone that influenced offensive game plans. That player does not exist right now in the backend, at least not at this point in the player's career. The Cowboys like the match-ups of their receiver group versus Baylor's secondary.
2--Terrel Bernard was big hitter and playmaker defensively. He flew downhill against the run, but could also cover slot receivers across the field in man to man. He was very dangerous as a blitzer coming off the edge or on a delay. His ability to read and react allowed Baylor to align to stop the pass, yet get to run fits in time to aggressively stop the run. Bryson Jackson is showing that he is capable of fulfilling the pass rush aspect of this spot, but no one is replicating Bernard's quick diagnosis of plays and big hitting profile. Like Jalen Pitre, he was a player that required extra attention.
Baylor's defense uses multiple fronts (4 man, 3 man, bear) to go with very aggressive designs and structure on the backend (multiple blitzes, creepers, etc.). They play games with the offense by simulating lots of pressure, but bringing only 4 or sometimes 5 (often an outside edge rusher). They get the offense to anticipate blitz from one side to influence the play away, but then slide coverage to that side while dropping the edge pressure and bringing the rush from somewhere else. This causes quarterbacks to make reads that lead to throwing right into coverage and linemen to slide protections away from the actual rusher. Meanwhile, Baylor winds up dropping seven with brackets or deep safeties over the top who will break on balls thrown in front. They do a very good job of setting the edge defensively and funneling the run game to their strength in the middle.
Siaki Ika is a fantastic presence at nose. His ability to play two gaps while pushing the offensive line backwards is a huge advantage for Baylor in defending the run. Not only do they get the benefit of penetration in the backfield that disrupts the mid zone run game and keeps the offensive linemen from getting lateral movement along the line of scrimmage, he usually absorbs a second blocker without getting pushed off his spot. This frees up the inside backers to roam and hunt the ball carriers more easily. For the Cowboys to have sustained success in the run game, they have to: get lateral movement along the defensive front and find a way to block the edge defender. Ika is not going to chase plays down, so getting him moving laterally is a starting point for both of those things. This is a game where the Cowboy backs' ability to block the edge defender looms large as does the running backs willingness to cut with urgency and get up through any daylight they see. Due to the way Baylor defends the run, the threat of the quarterback run is going to have to play a larger role than normal. Look for more true zone-read and option looks to go with some of the RPO and designed QB run game. The Cowboys will work to get the ball on the perimeter to open up things between the tackles.
Baylor rotates 7-8 guys up front, so the defensive line is not a 1-man show, but look for Oklahoma State to stretch the field horizontally with tempo to get those linemen tired and in the routine of moving laterally to cover sideline to sideline. Hopefully this opens up more creases and gaps inside. Success there creates opportunities to pick on the aggressive secondary on play-action down the seam and to the post. The corners are athletic, but inexperienced. Against Texas State and Iowa State, they turned receivers loose down the field and were fortunate to not surrender many successful big passing plays. The Cowboys will test them.
(Part 2 below)
