Part 1
There are inflection points during every college football season that change the trajectory of expectations, and Saturday's contest is well positioned to do just that for both Oklahoma State and TCU. It's absolutely great for the conference to have two undefeated teams going head to head at this point. The Cowboys are at the beginning of a very challenging October schedule, but one that also puts their games at the forefront of national discussion for the entire month. Everything is laid out in front of this team. They need to execute in all phases, capitalize on play-making opportunities within each game, and continue to build depth and shore up weaker areas. Without question the Texas Tech game tested some of those depth issues on both sides of the ball with several guys getting nicked up. The Cowboys have a next man up mentality bred into the program culture, so no one makes excuses for performance when players go down. The expectation is that the next guy will perform and the team will find a way to win.
On offense the loss of Blaine Green and Jordan Bray before the first game had an impact, but the offense adjusted. The offense incorporated more QB run and RB screen game. Spencer Sanders spread the ball around a bit more, creating more things for the defense to consider. Without Braydon Johnson available to provide the deep threat to take the top off the Red Raider defense, the Cowboys responded by stretching the field laterally and creating one on one matchups outside. Preston Wilson has been a key part of the improvement of the offensive line. He was instrumental in the offense's ability to excel in short yardage situations at Baylor, so when he went down, it was significant. Joe Michalski rose to the situation and helped pave the way for late run game success in the fourth quarter. The take-away is that this offense has enough pieces around Spencer Sanders to be successful. The mantra ‘take what the defense gives us’ is something that the unit is built to sustain. The ceiling on that side of the ball remains tethered to Spencer’s performance, execution, and leadership. His ability to make critical plays while avoiding costly mistakes is a winning recipe for Oklahoma State.
When the OSU offense is on the field Saturday, they will line up against a defense that has good players, but allows big plays. Most defensive stats and metrics used by people to evaluate and predict game outcomes will seem to indicate that the TCU defense is very similar to OSU's. A closer look reveals that may not necessarily be true. Not only did their last two opponents lose their starting quarterbacks halfway through the game, but TCU’s defense does not create nearly as many negative plays for opposing offenses, averaging half the tackles for loss per game as OSU (5.2 vs 10.2) and 50% less sacks. These negative plays put offenses behind the chains and give the defense better opportunities to be successful on third downs, consequently getting off the field. Oklahoma State is 9th nationally <1st in the Big 12> in 3rd down defense (27.5%) while TCU is 81st nationally (39.7%). {Bear in mind that those are average statistics that include all opposing offenses played, and Oklahoma State will represent the best offensive team on the Horn Frog schedule to date.} TCU's inability to create lots of negative plays has made it easier for teams to sustain drives against them and made them more vulnerable to big plays off of play-action and downfield passing in run down situations.
Former Tulsa Defensive Coordinator Joe Gillespie leads TCU’s 3-3-5 base attack. There are some similarities to Heacock’s defense in Ames as it is constructed to defeat the spread zone run schemes while creating confusion on the backend in terms of coverage/pressure combinations. They teach their defensive backs to be aggressive and stay connected to receivers running through their zones. (They are prone to grab and bump past five yards.) The structure of their zone coverage is supposed to create a net around the route combinations and then close aggressively to the ball. Their overall team speed allows them to do a pretty good job of rallying to the football, although they are not consistent in getting guys to the ground. So far this season, they have fared much better against the run than the pass, and we will get to some details shortly.
Their three down linemen are effective at holding the line of scrimmage, but they do not get great upfield push nor generate much of a pass rush. The ends are experienced and give great effort, but are average. The Freshman Nose Tackle Damonic Williams has been surprisingly effective, and is a key to stopping the run. Expect OSU to test him and get that entire defensive line moving laterally. A successful inside run game for Oklahoma State opens up the entire offense and will really expose their weaknesses defending play-action and long developing crossing routes.
The linebackers are very athletic. Dee Winters (#13) is their most versatile and impactful player. He gets moved all over the field and is the guy most likely to create a negative play for the offense. Johnny Hodges (#57) is their leading tackler and is excellent in the run game when it comes to his side of the field. Jamoi Hodge (#6) is their Mike linebacker. He possesses really good speed and creates a lot of problems when he blitzes and attacks the line of scrimmage. The downside is that due to his aggression, he is the player most likely to get out of his run gaps when moving laterally and bite on misdirection or play-action. Other teams have found success attacking him on play-action down the seam with Tight Ends opposite the play fake or roll out. Marcel Brooks (#9) is a see-ball, get-ball player with Elite athleticism. He reminds me of a faster Calvin Bundage. There is not much film to show the packages he will be utilized in by TCU, but he will be their pass rush/blitz specialist. He has everything needed to be a great pass rushing linebacker.
The key to their Rover coverage scheme is Millard Bradford (#28). He will be the guy that has to contend with OSU’s slot receivers while also coming up into the box against the quarterback run game. Expect the Cowboys to keep him occupied all game long. They roll through several players at safety who are all productive. Abe Camara (#14) has been emerging as a reliable open space player for them. Mark Perry (#3) is very physical when playing down in the box against the run, but can get caught out of position in coverage. TreVius Hodges-Tomlinson (#1) has elite speed (4.3) and will be drafted in the middle rounds by the NFL, but he is undersized. OSU has to run at him and throw at him in the short game to make him tackle bigger receivers in space. TCU will give up some contested catches down the field, so the the Cowboys will have opportunities to take vertical shots along the sideline. Due to their inability to generate consistent pressure with 3 or 4 man rushes, TCU’s secondary is vulnerable to slower developing crossing route combinations. They have also been vulnerable along the seams against dual threat quarterbacks who put the linebackers and safeties in conflict.
At times, TCU’s defense looks really impressive, but several times a game, they will give up big plays in their zone coverages and then follow that up with several missed tackles in space by their secondary. If Spencer Sanders can correctly identify who is dropping in coverage and exploit the weaknesses in their zone while getting sideways movement up front to create vertical creases for the run game, then OSU should have a very productive offensive game.
There are inflection points during every college football season that change the trajectory of expectations, and Saturday's contest is well positioned to do just that for both Oklahoma State and TCU. It's absolutely great for the conference to have two undefeated teams going head to head at this point. The Cowboys are at the beginning of a very challenging October schedule, but one that also puts their games at the forefront of national discussion for the entire month. Everything is laid out in front of this team. They need to execute in all phases, capitalize on play-making opportunities within each game, and continue to build depth and shore up weaker areas. Without question the Texas Tech game tested some of those depth issues on both sides of the ball with several guys getting nicked up. The Cowboys have a next man up mentality bred into the program culture, so no one makes excuses for performance when players go down. The expectation is that the next guy will perform and the team will find a way to win.
On offense the loss of Blaine Green and Jordan Bray before the first game had an impact, but the offense adjusted. The offense incorporated more QB run and RB screen game. Spencer Sanders spread the ball around a bit more, creating more things for the defense to consider. Without Braydon Johnson available to provide the deep threat to take the top off the Red Raider defense, the Cowboys responded by stretching the field laterally and creating one on one matchups outside. Preston Wilson has been a key part of the improvement of the offensive line. He was instrumental in the offense's ability to excel in short yardage situations at Baylor, so when he went down, it was significant. Joe Michalski rose to the situation and helped pave the way for late run game success in the fourth quarter. The take-away is that this offense has enough pieces around Spencer Sanders to be successful. The mantra ‘take what the defense gives us’ is something that the unit is built to sustain. The ceiling on that side of the ball remains tethered to Spencer’s performance, execution, and leadership. His ability to make critical plays while avoiding costly mistakes is a winning recipe for Oklahoma State.
When the OSU offense is on the field Saturday, they will line up against a defense that has good players, but allows big plays. Most defensive stats and metrics used by people to evaluate and predict game outcomes will seem to indicate that the TCU defense is very similar to OSU's. A closer look reveals that may not necessarily be true. Not only did their last two opponents lose their starting quarterbacks halfway through the game, but TCU’s defense does not create nearly as many negative plays for opposing offenses, averaging half the tackles for loss per game as OSU (5.2 vs 10.2) and 50% less sacks. These negative plays put offenses behind the chains and give the defense better opportunities to be successful on third downs, consequently getting off the field. Oklahoma State is 9th nationally <1st in the Big 12> in 3rd down defense (27.5%) while TCU is 81st nationally (39.7%). {Bear in mind that those are average statistics that include all opposing offenses played, and Oklahoma State will represent the best offensive team on the Horn Frog schedule to date.} TCU's inability to create lots of negative plays has made it easier for teams to sustain drives against them and made them more vulnerable to big plays off of play-action and downfield passing in run down situations.
Former Tulsa Defensive Coordinator Joe Gillespie leads TCU’s 3-3-5 base attack. There are some similarities to Heacock’s defense in Ames as it is constructed to defeat the spread zone run schemes while creating confusion on the backend in terms of coverage/pressure combinations. They teach their defensive backs to be aggressive and stay connected to receivers running through their zones. (They are prone to grab and bump past five yards.) The structure of their zone coverage is supposed to create a net around the route combinations and then close aggressively to the ball. Their overall team speed allows them to do a pretty good job of rallying to the football, although they are not consistent in getting guys to the ground. So far this season, they have fared much better against the run than the pass, and we will get to some details shortly.
Their three down linemen are effective at holding the line of scrimmage, but they do not get great upfield push nor generate much of a pass rush. The ends are experienced and give great effort, but are average. The Freshman Nose Tackle Damonic Williams has been surprisingly effective, and is a key to stopping the run. Expect OSU to test him and get that entire defensive line moving laterally. A successful inside run game for Oklahoma State opens up the entire offense and will really expose their weaknesses defending play-action and long developing crossing routes.
The linebackers are very athletic. Dee Winters (#13) is their most versatile and impactful player. He gets moved all over the field and is the guy most likely to create a negative play for the offense. Johnny Hodges (#57) is their leading tackler and is excellent in the run game when it comes to his side of the field. Jamoi Hodge (#6) is their Mike linebacker. He possesses really good speed and creates a lot of problems when he blitzes and attacks the line of scrimmage. The downside is that due to his aggression, he is the player most likely to get out of his run gaps when moving laterally and bite on misdirection or play-action. Other teams have found success attacking him on play-action down the seam with Tight Ends opposite the play fake or roll out. Marcel Brooks (#9) is a see-ball, get-ball player with Elite athleticism. He reminds me of a faster Calvin Bundage. There is not much film to show the packages he will be utilized in by TCU, but he will be their pass rush/blitz specialist. He has everything needed to be a great pass rushing linebacker.
The key to their Rover coverage scheme is Millard Bradford (#28). He will be the guy that has to contend with OSU’s slot receivers while also coming up into the box against the quarterback run game. Expect the Cowboys to keep him occupied all game long. They roll through several players at safety who are all productive. Abe Camara (#14) has been emerging as a reliable open space player for them. Mark Perry (#3) is very physical when playing down in the box against the run, but can get caught out of position in coverage. TreVius Hodges-Tomlinson (#1) has elite speed (4.3) and will be drafted in the middle rounds by the NFL, but he is undersized. OSU has to run at him and throw at him in the short game to make him tackle bigger receivers in space. TCU will give up some contested catches down the field, so the the Cowboys will have opportunities to take vertical shots along the sideline. Due to their inability to generate consistent pressure with 3 or 4 man rushes, TCU’s secondary is vulnerable to slower developing crossing route combinations. They have also been vulnerable along the seams against dual threat quarterbacks who put the linebackers and safeties in conflict.
At times, TCU’s defense looks really impressive, but several times a game, they will give up big plays in their zone coverages and then follow that up with several missed tackles in space by their secondary. If Spencer Sanders can correctly identify who is dropping in coverage and exploit the weaknesses in their zone while getting sideways movement up front to create vertical creases for the run game, then OSU should have a very productive offensive game.
