Alright, it's been a few days since the last forecast, and that is likely to become a trend. The latest information we have available is that all things realignment have slowed to a virtual crawl. A long story made short, I don't expect any major happenings for at least a month or two into the 2021 football season. That does not, however, mean that nothing is happening. There is plenty still happening, it's in the vacuum of everyone taking a step back, considering all options, doing due diligence, etc. There are so many moving pieces that the typical "it's a fluid situation" saying in these deals doesn't really adequately cover it.
For Oklahoma State, all options are currently on the table and I don't believe any have been ruled out. Specific to the B1G, I can say that confidence isn't particularly high, but also that it can't be ruled out. The big question is if they will move to expand at all right now, and then if they do, the question for OSU is whether AAU status is a deal-breaker. So far, it has not been, but given that it's a long way from B1G actually making a move, that's not terribly meaningful.
The meetings with the PAC-12 seemed to be productive and actually lead to a new category in today's forecast. The possibility of a short-term scheduling agreement exists. How it would work is the catch. Best guess is that if OU/UT decide they are in the SEC as of the 2022 football season, PAC teams would fill in across the Big 12 schedule for the 2022, 23 and maybe 24 football schedules. Then also across other sports, though likely not filling those as completely. The end game here would be for a number (3 or 4, most likely) teams to join the PAC in '24 or '25. The advantage to the remaining Big 12 teams is fairly obvious in that it buys time for everyone to find landing places and leads to a windfall for all with exit fees and TV money from Grant of Rights for the departed. The advantage for the PAC is enhanced ratings, picking up central time zone games and buying time to re-work their TV deal.
TV/media is the larger driving force in what is currently going on. With ESPN attempting to monopolize college football with their SEC dealings, existing players like FOX and CBS are re-assessing everything. Then you have potential major players such as Amazon. This is the main reason I don't expect any major additional realignment in the near term. Until such time that real numbers and real offers are being made, the remaining power conferences are likely to stand pat for the time being.
With that, on to the forecast.
PAC-12 30%
ACC 15%
B1G 15%
SEC 10%
Short-term scheduling alliance with PAC, leading to eventually joining PAC - 15%
Zombie B12 (no PAC scheduling), AAC, etc 5%
Something entirely unforeseen currently, such as another of the P5 imploding, formation of a super conference, etc - 10%
Versus our last update on August 5, that's a substantial reduction in the PAC number. It shouldn't be interpreted to mean the chances are now poorer. It's still the highest (by double) and also you need to add the scheduling alliance as that most likely winds up with OSU in the PAC as well. The changes are meant to reflect the general uncertainty that exists right now, which is reflected by the numbers being smoothed across the board.
For Oklahoma State, all options are currently on the table and I don't believe any have been ruled out. Specific to the B1G, I can say that confidence isn't particularly high, but also that it can't be ruled out. The big question is if they will move to expand at all right now, and then if they do, the question for OSU is whether AAU status is a deal-breaker. So far, it has not been, but given that it's a long way from B1G actually making a move, that's not terribly meaningful.
The meetings with the PAC-12 seemed to be productive and actually lead to a new category in today's forecast. The possibility of a short-term scheduling agreement exists. How it would work is the catch. Best guess is that if OU/UT decide they are in the SEC as of the 2022 football season, PAC teams would fill in across the Big 12 schedule for the 2022, 23 and maybe 24 football schedules. Then also across other sports, though likely not filling those as completely. The end game here would be for a number (3 or 4, most likely) teams to join the PAC in '24 or '25. The advantage to the remaining Big 12 teams is fairly obvious in that it buys time for everyone to find landing places and leads to a windfall for all with exit fees and TV money from Grant of Rights for the departed. The advantage for the PAC is enhanced ratings, picking up central time zone games and buying time to re-work their TV deal.
TV/media is the larger driving force in what is currently going on. With ESPN attempting to monopolize college football with their SEC dealings, existing players like FOX and CBS are re-assessing everything. Then you have potential major players such as Amazon. This is the main reason I don't expect any major additional realignment in the near term. Until such time that real numbers and real offers are being made, the remaining power conferences are likely to stand pat for the time being.
With that, on to the forecast.
PAC-12 30%
ACC 15%
B1G 15%
SEC 10%
Short-term scheduling alliance with PAC, leading to eventually joining PAC - 15%
Zombie B12 (no PAC scheduling), AAC, etc 5%
Something entirely unforeseen currently, such as another of the P5 imploding, formation of a super conference, etc - 10%
Versus our last update on August 5, that's a substantial reduction in the PAC number. It shouldn't be interpreted to mean the chances are now poorer. It's still the highest (by double) and also you need to add the scheduling alliance as that most likely winds up with OSU in the PAC as well. The changes are meant to reflect the general uncertainty that exists right now, which is reflected by the numbers being smoothed across the board.
