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Election predictions

aix_xpert

aix_xpert

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Sep 5, 2001
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So as of this moment, 538 has Republicans with an 80% probability of winning the House and the Dems with a 58% chance of holding the Senate. Betting markets are leaning further right. Everyone has their own opinions of the data and methodologies used. But what are YOUR predictions. I'm particularly curious how some of our left-leaning think the mid-terms will go. So with that, I offer this thread. What are your predictions?

I'll go first: R's win 235 House Seats and get to 51 Senate seats, winning GA and NV, but losing PA. Not the red tsunami that was predicted in the spring, but still a significant red wave.
 
aix_xpert said:
So as of this moment, 538 has Republicans with an 80% probability of winning the House and the Dems with a 58% chance of holding the Senate. Betting markets are leaning further right. Everyone has their own opinions of the data and methodologies used. But what are YOUR predictions. I'm particularly curious how some of our left-leaning think the mid-terms will go. So with that, I offer this thread. What are your predictions?

I'll go first: R's win 235 House Seats and get to 51 Senate seats, winning GA and NV, but losing PA. Not the red tsunami that was predicted in the spring, but still a significant red wave.
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What about OH?
 
I think Republicans do very well in this election. It's pretty much a forgone conclusion Republicans take the House but I think they take the Senate as well along with picking up a couple of State Governors. More importantly Republicans do very well in state elections. People vote with their pocketbooks and Democrats are the ones that are to blame.
 
aix_xpert said:
Since you talked governorships, does the R take Oregon?
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Doubtful - but stranger things have happened before. Drazen is going into her shell as a rush of dollars have come into the Kotek campaign. Drazen chose to skip a fairly important event last night in Bend with a very friendly crowd. Several of her donors very notably perturbed.
 
Marocain Poke said:
What about OH?
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Ive posted previously that I think the polling and messaging that the Dems are competing in Ohio is flat wrong and a pure repeat of 2016 and 2020 polling which showed Ohio being razor thin yet Trump carried the state by 7 or 8 percent. If Republicans are truly worried about losing in Ohio, then they have no shot at taking the senate.
 
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davidallen said:
How did you view 2016 vis a vis HRC?
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In 16, I think there was a large number of independents who voted for Trump simply because he wasn't part of the swamp/establishment. So not sure if you'd consider that a vote for Trump or a vote against Hillary.
 
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Agree mostly with Tulsi Dan- uniparty dominates and biz as usual rocks on- book it Dano
 
Mr.OSU said:
Oklahoma under no circumstances needs someone who will say yes sir Mr. President……..
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It’s funny to me how easily people get manipulated by a narrative. She’s a life long republican. Only changed parties to challenge Stitt. I wasn’t a big fan of her before and that’s not really changed, but we have to stop aligning with D’s and R’s at all cost. I just don’t see how now having a D behind her name changes her beliefs.
 
squeak said:
It will be close but I think Stitt pulls it out. If she wins it’s because it was a vote against Stitt, not for Joy.
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This is absolutely correct. He’s totally blown it. This race shouldn’t have been within 10 points.
 
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Cowguy said:
It’s funny to me how easily people get manipulated by a narrative. She’s a life long republican. Only changed parties to challenge Stitt. I wasn’t a big fan of her before and that’s not really changed, but we have to stop aligning with D’s and R’s at all cost. I just don’t see how now having a D behind her name changes her beliefs.
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When she bows as the leader of a conservative state to the whims of Joe Biden there will be a lot of voters with regret.
 
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Cowguy said:
It’s funny to me how easily people get manipulated by a narrative. She’s a life long republican. Only changed parties to challenge Stitt. I wasn’t a big fan of her before and that’s not really changed, but we have to stop aligning with D’s and R’s at all cost. I just don’t see how now having a D behind her name changes her beliefs.
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What are her beliefs?
 
Ponca Dan said:
I wonder if we could get our friend, @Syskatine, to give his opinion. Will he vote for the school superintendent that has overseen what he repeatedly calls the horrific disaster that is Oklahoma’s school system just because she’s a Democrat?
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As much as it pains me, he's just such a shitty governor I'd vote for about anything else, including Joy. Your point is a fair one though, imo. I'm under no illusions that she'll do anything besides act like a republican.
 
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Syskatine said:
As much as it pains me, he's just such a shitty governor I'd vote for about anything else, including Joy. Your point is a fair one though, imo. I'm under no illusions that she'll do anything besides act like a republican.
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Why would anyone in their right mind act otherwise?
 
This election season I am taking no bets. I have no idea what's gonna happen. Kavanaugh's nomination supposedly was gonna trigger a red wave and dems won. Abortion has supposedly enraged women but I don't buy it.

It SHOULD be a big midterm swing.
 
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Mr.OSU said:
On the responsible governance scale there is no comparison. You leftists manically throw money around now a days. You should not be taken seriously by any mature adult with common sense.
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Sure, sure. Vague whataboutism is all you got.
 
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Syskatine said:
Sure, sure. Vague whataboutism is all you got.
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Cowguy said:
It’s funny to me how easily people get manipulated by a narrative. She’s a life long republican. Only changed parties to challenge Stitt. I wasn’t a big fan of her before and that’s not really changed, but we have to stop aligning with D’s and R’s at all cost. I just don’t see how now having a D behind her name changes her beliefs.
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I would agree with this if you saw the Rs and Ds vote different from party leadership and demonstrated the capability of individual thought. But they don't. That's a recipe for losing party donor dollars, and thus unless you can claim the mantra of a true moderate and get funding from supporters of the OTHER party (like a Manchin or Cheney does), then it doesn't happen. Over the past 20 years, politicians have shifted to voting straight party line, which has led to the electorate shifting to vote party line.
 
Syskatine said:
Because republican governance as cratered our education.
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What has Republican governance done to crater the state’s education system? In your opinion what should it have done differently? What should the state government now do to improve education to your satisfaction?
 
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squeak said:
And nobody gave a shit about what the tribes think until Stitt pissed them off.
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The leader of the Cherokee tribe is as devout a dem as sykatine. He has the same personality as well. What is more interesting to me is the Tribes willingness to walk into state politics. The Cherokee's could have been supportive of one of their own, and chose to play politics instead. This is as much an indictment about their own tribe as it is on Stitt. The Cherokee's have always been two tribes in one.

It was the Cherokee that lead the anti Stitt campaign and still is. Joy is getting money from the 5 top tribes and the teacher's union, which is why she was able to field so much cash.
 
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Syskatine said:
As much as it pains me, he's just such a shitty governor I'd vote for about anything else, including Joy. Your point is a fair one though, imo. I'm under no illusions that she'll do anything besides act like a republican.
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Yep, billions in the bank and most pro business governor ever. Makes sense why you’d think he’s shitty.
 
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Corndog2021 said:
www.thegatewaypundit.com

Enemy of the People: McConnell Pulls Money From GOP Senate Candidate In Close Race -- And Gives it To Murkowski? | The Gateway Pundit | by ProTrumpNews Staff

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Super PAC aligned with Mitch McConnell, is pulling money from New Hampshire’s Senate race – this is despite the fact polling shows the race close.
www.thegatewaypundit.com www.thegatewaypundit.com
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McConnell would rather Democrats have the majority in the Senate than have Senators not beholding to him. For that reason he has no business being the Republican leader in the Senate. Republicans need new leadership that has the balls to stand up to Democrats.
 
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2012Bearcat said:
McConnell would rather Democrats have the majority in the Senate than have Senators not beholding to him. For that reason he has no business being the Republican leader in the Senate. Republicans need new leadership that has the balls to stand up to Democrats.
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Is this another Trump failure? If he couldn't drain the GOP swamp how could he ever beat the deep state? So sad.
 
davidallen said:
Is this another Trump failure? If he couldn't drain the GOP swamp how could he ever beat the deep state? So sad.
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Yes, it’s another Trump failure. And you are right, it is a pity. Only a fool would cheer for the continued growth of the deep state. I’m glad to see you think it’s sad, too.
 
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