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Will Gary Johnson Make the Debates

Mr. Blonde

Heisman Candidate
Jun 25, 2004
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The rule is:
  • The CPD's third criterion requires that the candidate have a level of support of at least 15% (fifteen percent) of the national electorate as determined by five national public opinion polling organizations selected by CPD, using the average of those organizations' most recent publicly-reported results at the time of the determination. CPD will rely on the advice of a recognized expert or experts in public opinion polling in determining the polls it will rely upon. The polls to be relied upon will be selected based on the quality of the methodology employed, the reputation of the polling organizations and the frequency of the polling conducted. CPD will identify the selected polling organizations well in advance of the time the criteria are applied.
The five most recent polls on RCP including Johnson have him at: 8 (ABC), 11 (NBC), 13 (CNN), 6 (AP), 12 (CBS), so he is getting fairly close in several. The next one, McClatchy has him at 10.

It will get really fascinating if he is over 15 in several, but they include an outlier one that drags his average down just enough.

I've seen a lot of people say while they don't necessarily support Johnson, they are saying they do if polled in an effort to get a different voice on the debate stage. I, obviously, hope it is successful.
 
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Doubt it. But it's exciting to see that 5% may be a very real possibility.
 
Can someone explain to me how this poles work for this? Who is voting on this....are they just asking Dems & Rep?
 
Can someone explain to me how this poles work for this? Who is voting on this....are they just asking Dems & Rep?

For automatic inclusion into debates he has to poll at 15% in national randomized scientific polls.
For the party to gain national status for the next election he has to garner 5% of the national popular vote.
 
The polls they are using do favor Johnson a bit, but not quite enough. I wonder if he will be able to get any endorsements that will push him up as the "other" candidate of choice. At the very least, he seems to be looking good for hitting the 5% threshold. If Trump continues to fall, those votes might not go to Johnson, but people won't be as worried about giving the election to Hillary if it looks like a foregone conclusion.

538
 
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