It is ok, I knew you were referencing Rasmussen (Republicans favorite place to go) and Emerson. You just opened the door to Gallup, and I took it.
I provided you other statistics to look at. I hope you do consider them.
Who Does Biden Select As His Running Mate?
- Thread starter my_2cents
- Start date
It is ok, I knew you were referencing Rasmussen (Republicans favorite place to go) and Emerson. You just opened the door to Gallup, and I took it.
I provided you other statistics to look at. I hope you do consider them.
And you are talking about flipping 3 states too, in the Midwest. I am just proposing there are other states that could be flipped too, which there are.
btw, your incumbent President is unpopular and no longer has a strong economy to attempt to take credit for. Good luck with that.
Biden flipping 3 in the midwest is way more probable than flipping Arizona and Florida, especially the Sunshine state.
BTW, you must have missed the polling data I posted a few days ago that has Trump favorables on the economy and job creation higher than Biden even in this trying times. Those ring true and Biden is screweddddddd no matter who he picks as VP.
No I am following your posts. You just keep shifting arguments and claims.
Yes, Democrats decided to go with the safe pick in Biden, a former VP under Obama for eight years. Guess what though, they also rejected Klobuchar. And Warren. And Sanders. Etc.
This means nothing though when it comes to who Biden may select as his running mate.
No I don't say you are wrong, I just point out to you that the evidence also shows Harris is viewed favorably by more Democrats than is Klobuchar. Warren too is viewed favorably by more Democrats than Klobuchar. Klobuchar unfavorability is lower but she is also less known among Democrats.
See, this is where you are misreading me right now. I am not predicting that Harris will be the nominee. I have my doubts that she will be. And I readily admit that Klobuchar could be the nominee. Never said she couldn't be. I am simply responding to your lame attacks against Harris. You are on a crusade against Harris and have been for some time now. In that regard, you are the typical right-winger.
There are a number of candidates I would be happy about if Biden chose them. And I think there are numerous candidates that Biden could end up choosing.
Last edited:
What about just flipping PA and Florida? Or Michigan, PA, and Arizona?
My point is that Biden has a good shot in a number of states that went for Trump in 2016 (we haven't even mentioned North Carolina). He has a shot to flip both Arizona and Florida. And taking a VP that could help him in those two states (especially given how well Biden is already playing in the Midwest) may not be a bad idea. Biden winning Florida would be huge and there is no reason why he shouldn't go after it given the polls right now showing him with a slim lead.
btw, still waiting on your thoughts about Catherine Cortez Masto. Sorry if I missed it, there have been a lot of posts.
Last edited:
I wouldn't call that a "mauling." Especially considering that Clinton won the popular vote by 2%.
All Biden needs to do is flip 44 electoral college votes, which isn't that much.
The highlighted portions are honestly hilarious if you think about your progression during this whole cycle. Sanders once again didn't get a fair shot and you think voters made that call? The Dem primary was on it's way to a possible brokered convention if not for Pete and Klobuchar getting behind Biden and forming a moderate coalition. The DNC knew full well they couldn't take the chance on Bernie being the candidate and had to make a swift move.
Here is yet another poll that talks about economic issues that country faces in relation to how the candidates fair Biden and Trump (hint: go to pages 164 and 165). Voters are uneasy about Biden and how he would handle this economic environment and show more confidence in Trump.
Edit to add the poll: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5yope37lqh/econTabReport.pdf
Last edited:
Biden flipping Florida is the item that is least likely to happen out of all of the states mentioned in this thread. Trump won Florida by more votes than the differences in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan combined.
I've already shared my thoughts on Cortez Masto - she doesn't have the mainstream recognition to make a difference specifically for the Midwest, feel like I'm getting blue in the face here. Masto helps with Arizona and further locking down Nevada but what else?
I think Sanders got a fair shot.
Democrats just decided to go with the safe option in Biden (which I always thought was a strong possibility). Plus, Biden's connection with Obama greatly helped him.
Everyone knew this was coming after South Carolina though. South Carolina was the establishment firewall. Whoever won South Carolina was going to be main challenger to Sanders. Biden won it and the establishment candidates fell in line behind him. That is politics.
And if the Sanders' campaign didn't see that coming, they were stupid. I think though they did see it coming but they thought they could stretch out the nomination fight like they did with Clinton. However, Biden had more support among rank and file Democrats than Clinton did. Sanders quickly realized Biden was no Clinton.
And that same poll shows Biden with a +4 advantage over Trump.
There are some good internal numbers in that poll for Biden too (esepcially in relation to how he is running up the score with traditional Democratic demographics and keeping Trump in single digits in tradiional Republican demographics).
Thanks for sharing.
Too early to tell. Get back with me in late October and I will share my thoughts then.
Remember though, all Biden needs is FL and PA and he has the electoral college. He doesn't need to flip a lot of states, especially if he flips FL. Which again, is why it may be very wise for him to choose a VP candidate that could help him in FL.
Last edited:
I live in Florida and I am telling you that Biden can flip FL. And I think the Trump campaign has been worried about Florida for some time now, hence the reason he has now made FL his "home state" lol.
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think a VP candidate that could help Biden in Florida may actually be very wise. If Biden can get the turnout he needs in south Florida and central Florida (offsetting enough of northern Florida for Trump), he could take Florida.
btw, I am not predicting Biden will definitely win FL. Just that he has a shot at flipping it.
Last edited:
I think she could help in Florida, possibly Texas. She also could excite the Latino vote, a vote Biden needs to turn out for him nationally and in key states. Also, she very well could play well in the Midwest. There is nothing to indicate she wouldn't at this point is there?
The knock on her is her level of experience. But she has been a US Senator as long as Harris has been, and Warren only has four more years of experience as a Senator.
Cortez Masto is definitely an interesting candidate in my opinion.
We can play this game all day, I'm not predicting Trump will win Minnesota but he has a shot at flipping it.
Also, LOL at you using the "I live in ___" card. I lived in Florida and Texas two states you claim Biden has a shot in with the right VP candidate.
I'll go on record right now that both states are red and Texas is a million vote difference and Trump will gain at least 5 points in Miami Dade county. Bet?
Well it is May. It would be foolish to make any firm predictions at this point.
Well then, if you lived in Florida, you should understand how Biden could win Florida (big turnout in south and central Florida). But you aboard the Trump train, so everything is going to be pro-Trump from here on in. Just like the good little Republican you are.
No bet. But depending on how the polls look in late October, I may take this bet in terms of Florida. You though shouldn't back away at that point, since you are so sure now. We can even bet on Minnesota too.
I think odds are Trump carries Texas. But the Biden campaign should definitely make a go for it and make Trump defend it with resources.
I'm not aboard any train but you're not confident in your political fortitude. If Florida is truly a state Biden can flip you'd have no hesitation taking me up on my offer. I'm essentially saying Trump wins Texas by double digits and retains Florida with an additional .5
That should be easy money.
lol, sure you are. Look buddy, I saw through your charade months ago. The closer we get to November, the more your defense of Trump will become stronger.
Like I said, this is going to be a base/turnout election. Most everyone knows right now whether they are going to vote for Trump or Biden. It is all about who gets the turnout they need.
Saying I think Biden CAN flip Florida doesn't mean I think Biden WILL flip Florida. You do understand English don't you?
You think Trump can flip Minnesota. Are you prepared right now to predict that he "will" flip MN?
Charade? You mean when I called Biden winning the primary when you threw support behind the incredibly viable Sanders, Warren, and Harris?
Trump still has a 93% approval from the Republican party, and the issues that will face the country in November will likely be economic in nature. Most reasonable people think the country's economic state are due to the pandemic and not a referendum on Trump's economic policies. That's a foundation most incumbents would be giddy about for their reelection efforts.
lol, so I can't support candidates other than who is the favorite to win the nomination? You act like it was some risk for you to say Biden, the front-runner, was going to win the primary. That is like betting on the Patriots to have a winning season lmao!
I admit I was wrong about Harris and her chances at the nomination. But I never predicted that either Sanders or Warren would win the nomination. I simply supported Sanders because his views aligned with mine and I thought he would do better in a base election than Biden. I liked Warren too.
None of this means you aren't a Republican or a Trump supporter though. You, of course, are both.
Spoken like a true Trump supporter. I can't wait to see you falling all over yourself come late October to talk about how great Trump is.
I agree btw that Trump's approval among Republicans is strong. And he is going to need his base to win in 2020. Again, this is going to be a base/turnout election. Which is why I think Klobuchar is not his best option for VP and probably why you want her so bad.
As for the economy, we shall see. I do know though that Trump can no longer can take credit for Obama's recovery and economic expansion. Trump has lost that talking point. And most polls are showing a majority Americans are giving Trump poor ratings on his handling of the pandemic or his ratings are declining...
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixg...ump-poor-ratings-in-handling-covid-19-crisis/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-trumps-handling-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/
lol, so I can't support candidates other than who is the favorite to win the nomination? You act like it was some risk for you to say Biden, the front-runner, was going to win the primary. That is like betting on the Patriots to have a winning season lmao!
I admit I was wrong about Harris and her chances at the nomination. But I never predicted that either Sanders or Warren would win the nomination. I simply supported Sanders because his views aligned with mine and I thought he would do better in a base election than Biden. I liked Warren too.
None of this means you aren't a Republican or a Trump supporter though. You, of course, are both.
Spoken like a true Trump supporter. I can't wait to see you falling all over yourself come late October to talk about how great Trump is.
I agree btw that Trump's approval among Republicans is strong. And he is going to need his base to win in 2020. Again, this is going to be a base/turnout election. Which is why I think Klobuchar is not his best option for VP and probably why you want her so bad.
As for the economy, we shall see. I do know though that Trump can no longer can take credit for Obama's recovery and economic expansion. Trump has lost that talking point. And most polls are showing a majority Americans are giving Trump poor ratings on his handling of the pandemic or his ratings are declining...
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixg...ump-poor-ratings-in-handling-covid-19-crisis/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-trumps-handling-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/
I literally just posted a poll in this thread that talked about numerous issues including handling of a pandemic and Biden has similarly awful numbers to Trump, it’s right after the economic favorables I mentioned. This is data that you are seemingly ignoring when there are signs of the incumbent actually holding a fairly good stance for re-election and a steep hill for Dems to climb.
I put the path out there and gave my opinion that Dems should be looking at strengthening their position in the Midwest, frankly, Harris isn’t the one to do it and I’ll leave the conversation at that.
I said months ago that a Biden presidential candidacy would give me strong pause in November with who to vote for.I’m on my phone but I’d be happy to find it for you.
Yes, you literally posted a poll that showed Biden with a +4 advantage over Trump and other postive internals for Biden. You chose to focus on the negatives for Biden, which again, isn't surprising.
So then are you prepared to declare your support for Biden right now? Go ahead.
I will vote for Biden in November. Will you?
I'll go on record that if he doesn't choose Klobuchar that I'd give Trump a better than 50% chance to take Minnesota. You want to throw that into a bet?
The difference between you and I is that I'm willing to be transparent about my thoughts.
Biden needs to do several things for me to consider him before November:
1) Prepare an economic plan that touches on all forms of our situation (job creation, financial and tax relief, shifting our supply chain away from China). Polling shows that Trump is better prepared for economic policy discussions and digging us out of the hole. I have serious doubts that Biden will be tough on China, the last thing I mentioned will be crucial in keeping the US safe and financially stable with future pandemics or major events that threaten our economy.
2) Be prepared to actually look like a leader against Trump in the debates. Trump is a master troll and gets under people's skin, he needs to show he won't take the bait.
What doesn't help Biden are the allegations against seem re: sexual assault/harrassment. Not going to play whataboutism here because Trump isn't a saint and has similarly credible instances in his past that have been used ad nauseum. Biden, however, has built up the persona of the sweet grandpa/good character guy and is running on that...you can't be that type of person. Do I think the Mika interview was absolutely awful for him? Resounding yes from me, he bumbled through that with many convoluted answers.
Biden will have to defend his deals with China and Ukraine. I hope he picks Kamala. She'll have to defend her gleeful prosecution record of minorities as Attorney General of Kalifornia. She had no part in writing Kalifornia's tough "Three Strikes, You're Out" laws, but she played a role in enforcement.
I once displayed minority and white Kalifornia prisoner percentages on these very pages. Do I need to do so again?
So that is a no then. Thanks.
Let me know when you are 100% sure about Minnesota like you apparently are about Florida. Hopefully you are wise enough to wait till late October.
I have been very transparent with you. I think Biden has a shot to flip Florida but I am not prepared to say right now that he absoultely will. I am also not prepared at this moment to make absolute predictions on other swing states.
I don't know how more transparent I can get for you.
So this is a no too. Again, you could have just said no instead of continuing to engage in your charade.
You will not vote for Biden. I know that and you know that. Why you just can't be honest about it is beyond me.
But please, prove me wrong on this!
I just gave you two things that would have me considering Biden in November. Ignore it, if he ignores it then he won't be getting my vote it's pretty simple.So this is a no too. Again, you could have just said no instead of continuing to engage in your charade.
You will not vote for Biden. I know that and you know that. Why you just can't be honest about it is beyond me.
But please, prove me wrong on this!
Getting the economy going is my number 1 issue as a voter.
Yeah, I can definitely see Harris as the next AG and she would be a good one. Klobuchar will probably also get consideration for the AG spot.
And you may be right about Warren as VP. She would help unite the party and I think she is in the top 5.
Warren would be a big gamble. Agree that it helps excite the far-left, but it may turn-off the independents and moderates that may be open to voting Biden.
According to an April Politico poll, only 11% of voters want to see a VP candidate more liberal than Biden. Even among Dems under 45, just 27% want someone more liberal.
And Warren has by far the highest unfavorable rating of potential VP picks among registered voters. More unfavorable than favorable.
I wouldn't say that Warren is a "big gamble." Warren is the unite the party pick and she would excite progressives. Biden needs progressives to turn out and vote for him in November and I think Warren would mostly help in that regard. As I have said before on this thread, I think this election is going to be a base/turnout election. If the Biden campaign thinks the same thing, then they need someone like Warren to help push the Democratic turnout.
There are of course negatives with Warren but all of these potential VP choices have negatives. It all comes down to what Biden wants to accomplish with his VP pick.
@Pokeabear ... why do you think Biden takes Warren? To unite the part, make progressives happy, and because she has experience?
Most broadly experienced, deadly serious reform candidate. Polling has her as first choice among all democrats repeatedly. She is nearly 10 years his junior and she can take over as the driving force behind his domestic agenda While Biden acts as the warm blanket the Nation and world will need for 4 years. It keeps Biden’s gaffes down wile also setting up a solid 12 year vision. If Kamala proves to be a good AG I could see her running as Warrens VP in 2024 and 2028. Leading to 8 years of her own and thus extending the vision to 20 years of continuity. Kamala and Warren are closer than most think and Joe has already said he sees himself as a transitional President. A lot would have to go right for this to come true but from people close to Liz...... you gotta start somewhere.
The more I think about it the more I wouldn’t mind seeing Warren as veep.
For all the reasons mentioned ITT plus one more, her home state.
I just like the intangibles and demographic heft of a Heartland of America Pennsylvania/Oklahoma ticket.
Labor Omnia Vincit.
For all the reasons mentioned ITT plus one more, her home state.
I just like the intangibles and demographic heft of a Heartland of America Pennsylvania/Oklahoma ticket.
Labor Omnia Vincit.
She would excite the far left. I will grant you that. But she has the highest unfavorable rating of any discussed VP pick. That information is clear in the Politico poll.
So Biden has to decide can he excite the far-left on his own, or does he need to risk alienating potential moderate voters by choosing Warren. I am sure his polling will tell him if the far-left voters outnumber in key states moderate voters who may consider voting for him.
Right now there are quite a few Republicans who back the Lincoln Project. But if Warren (or Sanders) was the VP pick, then fiscal conservatives of that group would either abstain or go ahead and vote Trump.
