Who Does Biden Select As His Running Mate?

[my_2cents]

I'm not the only one who doesn't like Harris...

Yes, most Republicans don't like her. She is really despised by those on the far-right too.

She's going to all of a sudden go from being a harsh critic of Biden on a number of stances and then jump on a campaign trail with him?

I wouldn't call Harris a "harsh critic" of Biden. Actually, Harris was very good friends with Beau Biden and by all accounts, her and Biden enjoy a friendly relationship. And they agree often. Yes, during the primary campaign she challenged Biden. And she laid a gut punch on him in the first debate. But that is party politics during a primary.

Bush going after Reagan in the 1980 primaries didn't stop Reagan from selecting him as his VP did it? Or JFK taking Johnson in 1960?

btw, Warren is more left of Biden than Harris is and attacked Biden too during the primary campaign. But that isn't going to stop Biden from taking Warren if that is the path he chooses.

I'm aware Klobuchar was part of the hearings, that's why I noted that her line of questioning was very fair in regards to due process. She didn't come across as insufferable person that had ulterior motives like Harris and Booker. I can say Klobuchar asked tough but fair questions and say I earned respect for her.

lol, now you add Booker.

I have no doubt that you think Kloubuchar was different from Harris and Booker. I have no doubt that is how you perceived it. In reality though, there was no difference. All three was firm and tough. All three did their job.

Klobuchar would get an ad just as quickly as would Harris.

IHey buddy...Biden actually is a more likeable person, even with his warts, than Hillary Clinton.

I agree. And that is one reason why I still believe Biden could win in November while many of my progressives friends think Democrats are making the same mistake with Biden that they did with Clinton.

I also think Biden plays better in the Midwest than does Clinton. This is one reason I think he doesn't necessarily need a VP candidate from the Midwest. What Biden needs IMO is someone to bring balance to the ticket, unite the part, energize his base, and help turn out his voters.

I'm actually trying to help you... Kamala has the highest unfavorable percentage among Warren, Klobuchar, Abrams, and Whitmer among young democrats (under 45) and only Warren has a higher unfavorable rating than Harris among all registered voters.

But Harris has the second highest favorablity among Democrats under 45, doesn't she? And she is literally tied with Klobuchar on favorabiity among the registered voters! Why didn't you mention any of this lol?

And of course Warren and Harris are going to have higher unfavorability ratings. They are both more nationally known and progressive (Note: I consider Harris a progressive but some progressives don't). That isn't a shock OSU. Look at someone like Tammy Baldwin. 72% of Democrats and 77% of registered voters in that poll haven't heard of her. But you can bet if Biden was to select her, as she became more nationally known, her unfavorability rating would increase (as would her favorability).

 

[long-duc-dong]

Kamala has a Hillary problem. She's a bitch. Women don't like her.

 

[my_2cents]

First, he should stay away from anyone that was previously a prosecutor.

Why do you say this?

Second, he cannot choose a sitting senator. A couple of the VP candidates sit in districts that could be flipped to Republican or are leading the effort to win back the majority in the senate. So Harris, Klobachar, Warren, and Abrams are out.

Nah, he could choose a sitting Senator and still keep some of these seats blue. For example, he could choose Harris and her senate seat from California would still remain Democratic. Minnesota also has a Democratic Governor. Massachusetts on the other hand does have a Republican Governor and this is definately a consideration when picking Warren.

Abrams isn't a Senator.

Val Demings would be an interesting choice. She could be helpful in a couple of swing states and is african-american.

I like Demings too. She is a longshot though and she could be attacked over her lack of experience.

Also, she was Chief of the Orlando Police Department. How does that relate to your claim about prosecutors?

But I think in the end it will be Susan Rice.

You may be right on this. Rice seems to be getting more buzz and discussion. And I could easily see Biden selecting her.

She has some weaknesses though, but at this point, all of these potential candidates do.

 

[my_2cents]

@OSU_Orlando ...

What are your thoughts on Catherine Cortez Masto and Susan Rice?

 

[OSU_Orlando]

Yes, most Republicans don't like her. She is really despised by those on the far-right too.



I wouldn't call Harris a "harsh critic" of Biden. Actually, Harris was very good friends with Beau Biden and by all accounts, her and Biden enjoy a friendly relationship. And they agree often. Yes, during the primary campaign she challenged Biden. And she laid a gut punch on him in the first debate. But that is party politics during a primary.

Bush going after Reagan in the 1980 primaries didn't stop Reagan from selecting him as his VP did it? Or JFK taking Johnson in 1960?

btw, Warren is more left of Biden than Harris is and attacked Biden too during the primary campaign. But that isn't going to stop Biden from taking Warren if that is the path he chooses.



lol, now you add Booker.

I have no doubt that you think Kloubuchar was different from Harris and Booker. I have no doubt that is how you perceived it. In reality though, there was no difference. All three was firm and tough. All three did their job.

Klobuchar would get an ad just as quickly as would Harris.



I agree. And that is one reason why I still believe Biden could win in November while many of my progressives friends think Democrats are making the same mistake with Biden that they did with Clinton.

I also think Biden plays better in the Midwest than does Clinton. This is one reason I think he doesn't necessarily need a VP candidate from the Midwest. What Biden needs IMO is someone to bring balance to the ticket, unite the part, energize his base, and help turn out his voters.



But Harris has the second highest favorablity among Democrats under 45, doesn't she? And she is literally tied with Klobuchar on favorabiity among the registered voters! Why didn't you mention any of this lol?

And of course Warren and Harris are going to have higher unfavorability ratings. They are both more nationally known and progressive (Note: I consider Harris a progressive but some progressives don't). That isn't a shock OSU. Look at someone like Tammy Baldwin. 72% of Democrats and 77% of registered voters in that poll haven't heard of her. But you can bet if Biden was to select her, as she became more nationally known, her unfavorability rating would increase (as would her favorability).

Klobuchar might have not as much "favorable" ratings in sheer numbers across the country but that's not what should be the focus.

You're really talking out of both sides of your mouth here, you're saying Warren and Harris have higher unfavorable ratings due to being more in the nationally known, so if that were the case why does Klobuchar have higher approval ratings than Harris in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan?

In reality the election always comes down to 10 - 12 states and 1/4 of them right off the top are in the midwest (Pennsylvania isn't really but I'm throwing in) where Klobuchar plays well.

To answer your other question, Susan Rice IMO is a better VP choice on the surface but she could have some bigger issues in the very new future that I believe disqualifies her from being a serious selection for Biden.

Outside of say Arizona and parts of Texas (Biden isn't winning there), she doesn't move the needle.

 

[CowboyUp]

What do you think of Catherine Cortez Masto?

Like her a lot. She would be fabulous.!

 

[BvillePoker]

Why do you say this?



Nah, he could choose a sitting Senator and still keep some of these seats blue. For example, he could choose Harris and her senate seat from California would still remain Democratic. Minnesota also has a Democratic Governor. Massachusetts on the other hand does have a Republican Governor and this is definately a consideration when picking Warren.

Abrams isn't a Senator.



I like Demings too. She is a longshot though and she could be attacked over her lack of experience.

Also, she was Chief of the Orlando Police Department. How does that relate to your claim about prosecutors?



You may be right on this. Rice seems to be getting more buzz and discussion. And I could easily see Biden selecting her.

She has some weaknesses though, but at this point, all of these potential candidates do.

Prosecutors can be attacked on their choice of prosecutions and wrong person prosecutions. Prosecutors never had polled well with minorities.

Abrams is leading the effort for the Dem Party to regain majority in the Senate. It would derail that whole effort if she was chosen for VP.

I would be interested to see how an ex-police chief polls. Probably well with moderates, but not great with minorities. Unions would probably back a police chief and that cannot be underestimated.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

One thing that has to be talked about if we are talking swing states is that Trump will absolutely make Minnesota a target this year and would have taken that state if not for Johnson and McMullin.

 

[my_2cents]

You're really talking out of both sides of your mouth here, you're saying Warren and Harris have higher unfavorable ratings due to being more in the nationally known, so if that were the case why does Klobuchar have higher approval ratings than Harris in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan?

So are you now wanting to move away from the poll you just cited to and discuss approval ratings in Wisconsin and Michigan? I guess that poll didn't help your argument like you thought it would, huh?

To answer your other question, Susan Rice IMO is a better VP choice on the surface but she could have some bigger issues in the very new future that I believe disqualifies her from being a serious selection for Biden.

Such as? btw, no crazy right-wing conspiracy theories please.

I am sure Republicans will bring up Benghazi again if she is the nominee and that is one weakness for her. But I am starting to think Rice may be in Biden's top 5. She checks a number of important boxes.

What about your thoughts on Catherine Cortez Masto?

 

[BvillePoker]

Like her a lot. She would be fabulous.!

I am going to be blunt here. Not meant with disrespect. She doesn't bring enough new votes to the ballot box. She cannot bring any african-americans that were not already voting Dem and Latinos do not actually go vote outside of a couple of states.

 

[CowboyUp]

Prosecutors can be attacked on their choice of prosecutions and wrong person prosecutions. Prosecutors never had polled well with minorities.

Abrams is leading the effort for the Dem Party to regain majority in the Senate. It would derail that whole effort if she was chosen for VP.

I would be interested to see how an ex-police chief polls. Probably well with moderates, but not great with minorities. Unions would probably back a police chief and that cannot be underestimated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Val_Demings

 

[my_2cents]

One thing that has to be talked about if we are talking swing states is that Trump will absolutely make Minnesota a target this year and would have taken that state if not for Johnson and McMullin.

Yeah, he probably will. But, on the other hand, Trump is also going to have to be defending Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Pennsylvania (not to mention other states outside of the Midwest). And it isn't looking good for him right now in Michigan and PA. Last poll out of Michigan had Biden +8. Last two polls out of PA had Biden +6 and +8.

See this is my point OSU, Biden is already performing well in the Midwest (and yes, I know things could change as we get closer to the election). He defintely will need to give attention to these states, but I think he is better received there than Clinton was. It isn't a "must" that Biden have a VP to help him in these states.

As for Minnesota, no recent polling to look at right now. Biden was +12 but that was back in October. Clinton, even with her Midwestern struggles, still was able to carry Minnesota by almost 2%. I would say, barring some major problem for Biden, he will probably carry Minnesota in November.

 

[CowboyUp]

I am going to be blunt here. Not meant with disrespect. She doesn't bring enough new votes to the ballot box. She cannot bring any african-americans that were not already voting Dem and Latinos do not actually go vote outside of a couple of states.

She would lock up Arizona, NM, Nevada & Colorado.
So would the Gov of New Mexico.
Neither would hurt in Texas which is in play.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

So are you now wanting to move away from the poll you just cited to and discuss approval ratings in Wisconsin and Michigan? I guess that poll didn't help your argument like you thought it would, huh?



Such as? btw, no crazy right-wing conspiracy theories please.

I am sure Republicans will bring up Benghazi again if she is the nominee and that is one weakness for her. But I am starting to think Rice may be in Biden's top 5. She checks a number of important boxes.

What about your thoughts on Catherine Cortez Masto?

The poll I cited clearly says that either selecting Warren or Harris would be bold because they are polarizing. You are really in one of two camps, you hate them or love them. The case I'm presenting is this...if you are banking on a VP selection for energizing a campaign then you're already dead in the water. A VP candidate isn't a deciding factor, it's an enhancement.

With Klobuchar you have less volatility both within the Democrat party and general electorate. She's not going to break your campaign, you could even call her a safe choice.

As for Susan Rice, more information coming out on the handling of Russia investigations involving the Obama administration is going to be a thorn in her side.

Like @BvillePoker mentioned she doesn't do much to energize enough African American voters to come out.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

Yeah, he probably will. But, on the other hand, Trump is also going to have to be defending Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Pennsylvania (not to mention other states outside of the Midwest). And it isn't looking good for him right now in Michigan and PA. Last poll out of Michigan had Biden +8. Last two polls out of PA had Biden +6 and +8.

See this is my point OSU, Biden is already performing well in the Midwest. He defintely will need to give attention to these states, but he is better received there than Clinton was. It isn't a "must" that Biden have a VP to help him in these states.

As for Minnesota, no recent polling to look at right now. Biden was +12 but that was back in October. Clinton, even with her Midwestern struggles, still was able to carry Minnesota by almost 2%. I would say, barring some major problem for Biden, he will probably carry Minnesota in November.

I fail to remind you that Clinton had major major leads in polling in both Michigan and PA last election and yet...lost.

You have to lock down the Midwest for a win, MUST.

It also doesn't help that those two states, primarily PA, is a heavy energy producer and Trump is favorable in both economic and job producing energy policies that will play a key role come November.

 

[my_2cents]

Prosecutors can be attacked on their choice of prosecutions and wrong person prosecutions.

Valid point.

I don't think it should be an automatic disqualification though. And I think with the right messaging, this problem can be overcome.

 

[my_2cents]

I fail to remind you that Clinton had major major leads in polling in both Michigan and PA last election and yet...lost.

Not at the end though. There were clear signs of concern in the last few weeks in the state polls. And anyone who saw Clinton campaiging in PA the night before the election should have realized the worry her campaign had over the trends they were seeing.

Keep in mind too that this is 2020, not 2016. Trump is an incumbent who now has a record. He isn't a fresh face who can be everything to everyone.

Trump's campaign is worried about his numbers in Michigan and PA, and rightfully so. They still have time to turn it around though and win there again, but they are facing something different in Biden than they were in Clinton. And there is also the record that Trump has to run on.

You have to lock down the Midwest for a win, MUST.

Or win enough of the Midwestern states while winning in other states, especially states that are trending blue and may be within grasp.

 

[OUSOONER67]

My predictions.
1. Its Canks to turn down or accept.
2. Michael Obama. He said woman though so I don't know about this prediction.
3. Corn Pop
4. Himself
My guess is he forgets day to day which woman he wants and has to start all over so who knows which loser he picks?

 

[OSU_Orlando]

Not at the end though. There were clear signs of concern in the last few weeks in the state polls. And anyone who saw Clinton campaiging in PA the night before the election should have realized the worry her campaign had over the trends they were seeing.

Keep in mind too that this is 2020, not 2016. Trump is an incumbent who now has a record. He isn't a fresh face who everything to anybody.

Trump's campaign is worried about his numbers in Michigan and PA, and rightfully so. They still have time to turn it around though and win there again, but they are facing something different in Biden than they were in Clinton. And there is also the record that Trump has to run on.


Or win enough of the Midwestern states while winning in other states, especially states that are trending blue and may be within grasp.

Keep in mind that incumbents have a general leg up in reelections...

Additionally, let's go through state by state.

Assuming Trump takes Florida, which, he likely does.

For Dems to even have a chance they must take PA, AZ, hold MN and grab one Wisconsin or Michigan. A heavy heavy burden.

 

[BvillePoker]

She would lock up Arizona, NM, Nevada & Colorado.
So would the Gov of New Mexico.
Neither would hurt in Texas which is in play.

See, it is hard to take you seriously when you say things like this. Texas is not in play. Beto ran a pretty good campaign and was in a congressional district that polled blue, but could not win. As a whole, the state of texas is red. I actually have access to real polling data that says Texas is not in play for Dems.

Arizona can go either way. Hispanics and Latinos do not vote at a high rate in the presidential elections. March Trump was polling at %48. April Biden is polling at %52 but only around %45 with latinos.

Colorado and Nevada will go blue no matter the candidate or the VP. Hell, Nevada in February was polling %48 for Buttigieg.

 

[my_2cents]

The poll I cited clearly says that either selecting Warren or Harris would be bold because they are polarizing. You are really in one of two camps, you hate them or love them.

Let's look at your poll again. Here were the numbers:

Among Democrats:
Warren (F: 57%)(UF: 17%)(NO/NH: 17%)
Harris (F: 45%)(UF: 18%)(NO/NH: 37%)
Klobuchar (F: 33%)(UF: 14%)(NO/NH: 53%)

Among Registered Voters:
Warren (F: 36%)(UF: 41%)(NO/NH: 23%)
Harris: (F: 32%)(UF: 35%)(NO/NH: 35%)
Klobuchar: (F: 32%)(UF: 27%)(NO/NH: 42%)

Clearly, Klobuchar is the less known of the three, even among Democrats! And yet, being less known or no opinion, she ties Harris in favorability among the registered voters while only trailing Harris by 8% unfavorability (which btw, is close to the 7% difference in NO/NH category).

Harris and Warren clearly are better known than Klobuchar. I guarantee you that as Klobuchar becomes better known (as is Harris and Warren), you will see her UF rating go up too. That is the nature of our partisan politics.

btw, there are also more than two camps with Harris. An equal amount of registered voters in that poll have either no opinion of her or have never heard of her. So your assertion that you either love or hate Harris is not correct according to this poll. You are closer to the truth with Warren, but a little over two out of ten for her are NO/NH as well.

 

[my_2cents]

As for Susan Rice, more information coming out on the handling of Russia investigations involving the Obama administration is going to be a thorn in her side..

Perhaps but I doubt it really. Trump supporters are the ones on a revenge crusade over the investigation of Russia's 2016 interference (not Democrats and Independents). Such talk definitely helps Trump rally them to get out and vote (which is of course is the point) but it has little impact on Democrats and Independents. These Trump supporters already don't like Rice. But Rice wouldn't be picked to appeal to Trump supporters.

Keep in mind too that any talk of Russia during this campaign is going to cut both ways. It will hurt Trump just as much as it possibly could hurt Rice.

Biden of course may want to avoid all of this, and that is why I do agree that she does carry some baggage. But she also has some other things working in her favor.

Like @BvillePoker mentioned she doesn't do much to energize enough African American voters to come out.

Do we have evidence of this though? Do you know of any recent polling that details how African Americans think of Rice?

 

[my_2cents]

Keep in mind that incumbents have a general leg up in reelections...

True, but Trump is also an unpopular incumbent.

What I was trying to say is that Trump now has a record. People know who Trump is and what he is all about. And I think at this point, most people know whether they are going to vote for him or against him. Their opinions about him are formed and not going to change. This is why I think this is going to be a turnout/base election.

Assuming Trump takes Florida, which, he likely does.

I don't assume this though. Last two polls out of Florida has Biden +3 and +4. The third shows a tie. Florida is a toss up and Biden very well could win it.

Biden might actually be wise to choose a VP who can help him in Florida. Maybe Demings or Cortez Masto.

This is why I honestly have no clue who Biden is going to choose. He could go so many different paths with this VP choice. I know you think I favor Harris and Warren, and while I do like them, there are numerous choices that Biden could make that I would like. Cortez Masto is one of them. So is Demings. And Rice. Etc.

btw, what do you think of Cortez Masto? I haven't seen you give any thoughts about her.

 

[my_2cents]

Texas is not in play.

I don't know if I agree with this at this point.

Last two polls I saw out of Texas showed the race a tie. Trump is only enjoying a 1.4% RCP average right now. A VP candidate like Cortez Masto very well could help Biden move the needle some in Texas.

I actually have access to real polling data that says Texas is not in play for Dems.

Care to share?

Arizona can go either way. Hispanics and Latinos do not vote at a high rate in the presidential elections. March Trump was polling at %48. April Biden is polling at %52 but only around %45 with latinos.

Colorado and Nevada will go blue no matter the candidate or the VP. Hell, Nevada in February was polling %48 for Buttigieg.

I agree that Nevada and Colorado will probably go blue regardless. Arizona would be a nice pickup for the Democrats though. Last poll out of Arizona, which was of likely voters too, showed Biden with a +9 advantage. That seems a little high to me though. RCP Average has Biden at +4.4.

Maybe Cortez Masto could help lock up Arizona?

 

[JimmyBob]

My predictions.
1. Its Canks to turn down or accept.
2. Michael Obama. He said woman though so I don't know about this prediction.
3. Corn Pop
4. Himself
My guess is he forgets day to day which woman he wants and has to start all over so who knows which loser he picks?

You left Richard Simmons off the list.

 

[BvillePoker]

I don't know if I agree with this at this point.

Last two polls I saw out of Texas showed the race a tie. Trump is only enjoying a 1.4% RCP average right now. A VP candidate like Cortez Masto very well could help Biden move the needle some in Texas.



Care to share?



I agree that Nevada and Colorado will probably go blue regardless. Arizona would be a nice pickup for the Democrats though. Last poll out of Arizona, which was of likely voters too, showed Biden with a +9 advantage. That seems a little high to me though. RCP Average has Biden at +4.4.

Maybe Cortez Masto could help lock up Arizona?

I can't share everything, but the last AtlasIntel shows Trump +12.

 

[CowboyUp]

I can't share everything, but the last AtlasIntel shows Trump +12.

Doesn’t matter which poll you believe—Trump gonna burn throough a bunch to hold Texa$$$$$$$$

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

I'm eager to see if Blexit is for real. The "smartest woman in the world" ran for Obama's third term. Weak support came from black America. Beijing Biden will have to improve in this area. I see nothing from the black community to suggest he can.

I still marvel at Wayne County, Michigan black Americans delivering Michigan to Trump. Some voted Trump, voted down ticket or stayed home. Same scenario in Cuyahoga County, Ohio. Trump won Ohio by 8 with help from a bunch of jobless Democrats. Obama never won Ohio by 8.

Biden promises Penn petroleum workers to make them jobless. Biden is Green New Deal and anti-fracking.

 

[my_2cents]

Biden will have to improve in this area. I see nothing from the black community to suggest he can.

Guess you were not paying attention during the primaries huh?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/joe-biden-owes-it-all-to-african-american-voters.html

btw, I think it would be more accurate to say that Biden is now running for Obama's third term since Biden was Obama's VP for eight years. Remember, Clinton ran against Obama in 2008 and lost the nomination. Biden is more closely connected to Obama in the minds of voters than Clinton.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

I'll expand just a bit. Biden promises tens of thousands of petroleum workers he'll make them jobless. Biden is anti-fracking and pro Green New Deal.

I hang out on 11th Street regularly. I don't talk to a whole lot of Biden fans. Conservative brother Charlie tells me neighbors don't call him "white boy" anymore.

There's several African American sites I visit. I can offer you up an invitation.

I've noticed when posted here, African American stories and polling favorable to Trump is poo pooed by the left. Recent Gallup and Emerson polling showed Trump with 34% favorable among African-Americans.

 

[my_2cents]

I've noticed when posted here, African American stories and polling favorable to Trump is poo pooed by the left. Recent Gallup and Emerson polling showed Trump with 34% favorable among African-Americans.

Here is a recent poll for you . . . of African American voters in battleground states taken back in April

It found that Biden is very popular with black voters while Trump is not. Biden had the highest net favorability rating in the poll:58 percentage points. Trump had the lowest rating: -59, 117 points worse than Biden.

In terms of the VP spot, 55% of African American voters said they would be more excited to turn out or vote for Biden if he were to pick a black woman to join his ticket (27% said they didn't care, they were going to vote for Biden regardless). Only 7% said they would still vote for Trump.

Among the potential VP candidates, Adams and Harris enjoyed high net favorability ratings.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/14/poll-biden-black-vp-185043

 

[my_2cents]

@Sunburnt Indian .... since you referenced Gallup:

"The same stability holds true for Trump's approval rating among black Americans. Gallup averages show Trump with a 10% approval rating among blacks in 2017, 11% in 2018 and 10% so far in 2019."

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/268517/analyzing-black-support-president-trump.aspx

 

[OUSOONER67]

Guess you were not paying attention during the primaries huh?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/joe-biden-owes-it-all-to-african-american-voters.html

btw, I think it would be more accurate to say that Biden is now running for Obama's third term since Biden was Obama's VP for eight years. Remember, Clinton ran against Obama in 2008 and lost the nomination. Biden is more closely connected to Obama in the minds of voters than Clinton.

Joe Biden doesn't remember Obama's term.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

Let's look at your poll again. Here were the numbers:

Among Democrats:
Warren (F: 57%)(UF: 17%)(NO/NH: 17%)
Harris (F: 45%)(UF: 18%)(NO/NH: 37%)
Klobuchar (F: 33%)(UF: 14%)(NO/NH: 53%)

Among Registered Voters:
Warren (F: 36%)(UF: 41%)(NO/NH: 23%)
Harris: (F: 32%)(UF: 35%)(NO/NH: 35%)
Klobuchar: (F: 32%)(UF: 27%)(NO/NH: 42%)

Clearly, Klobuchar is the less known of the three, even among Democrats! And yet, being less known or no opinion, she ties Harris in favorability among the registered voters while only trailing Harris by 8% unfavorability (which btw, is close to the 7% difference in NO/NH category).

Harris and Warren clearly are better known than Klobuchar. I guarantee you that as Klobuchar becomes better known (as is Harris and Warren), you will see her UF rating go up too. That is the nature of our partisan politics.

btw, there are also more than two camps with Harris. An equal amount of registered voters in that poll have either no opinion of her or have never heard of her. So your assertion that you either love or hate Harris is not correct according to this poll. You are closer to the truth with Warren, but a little over two out of ten for her are NO/NH as well.

You didn't mean to make my point but you did so thank you. Klobuchar isn't as well know as Harris and Warren yet has similar favorability figures as Harris in the General Election with still a big chunk of those who haven't decided their opinion. More people have decided their stance on Harris, Klobuchar still has a big opportunity to sway voters to increase her standing in her own party but also in registered voter polling data for a GE.

The data presented says Kamala has the most unfavorable votes for those DEMOCRATS under 45. That's a fact, spin it how you want. For someone who is/has been a Bernie supporter with a big chunk of his own followers being under 45 you'd think that this would scare you if you're truly wanting the more progressive wing of your party to come and vote.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

True, but Trump is also an unpopular incumbent.

What I was trying to say is that Trump now has a record. People know who Trump is and what he is all about. And I think at this point, most people know whether they are going to vote for him or against him. Their opinions about him are formed and not going to change. This is why I think this is going to be a turnout/base election.



I don't assume this though. Last two polls out of Florida has Biden +3 and +4. The third shows a tie. Florida is a toss up and Biden very well could win it.

Biden might actually be wise to choose a VP who can help him in Florida. Maybe Demings or Cortez Masto.

This is why I honestly have no clue who Biden is going to choose. He could go so many different paths with this VP choice. I know you think I favor Harris and Warren, and while I do like them, there are numerous choices that Biden could make that I would like. Cortez Masto is one of them. So is Demings. And Rice. Etc.

btw, what do you think of Cortez Masto? I haven't seen you give any thoughts about her.

Incumbents naturally have built in advantages to re-election, that's why they usually see their popular vote averages go up nearly 4% on average (taking into account the last 14 elections that an incumbent ran).

Breaking it down by State, if Trump captures Arizona and Florida again in 2020, that means the Dems have to sweep Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA, you miss on any of those listed and he's re-elected.

 

[my_2cents]

Klobuchar isn't as well know as Harris and Warren yet has similar favorability figures as Harris in the General Election with still a big chunk of those who haven't decided their opinion. More people have decided their stance on Harris, Klobuchar still has a big opportunity to sway voters to increase her standing in her own party but also in registered voter polling data for a GE.

Or the opportunity to see her unfavorability rise to Warren and Harris' level (or even surpass) once more people learn about her. And you can bet it will if she is the VP nominee for Biden.

Also, there is still a good chunk of people who haven't decided their stance on Harris. Which again, proved your claim wrong that everybody has already made up their mind on Harris.

Sorry, I just don't think that poll helps your argument (what ever it is now) for Klobuchar that much.

 

[my_2cents]

Breaking it down by State, if Trump captures Arizona and Florida again in 2020

And what happens if Biden captures Arizona and Florida, states where he is currently leading?

On top of that, why not choose a candidate that can help him nail down Arizona and Florida (and force Trump to spend a lot of resources in other states like Texas)?

Again, this is my point. Yes, the Midwestern approach to choosing the VP is one valid approach. But there are other approaches just as valid, and some would argue, more valid.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

@Sunburnt Indian .... since you referenced Gallup:

"The same stability holds true for Trump's approval rating among black Americans. Gallup averages show Trump with a 10% approval rating among blacks in 2017, 11% in 2018 and 10% so far in 2019."

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/268517/analyzing-black-support-president-trump.aspx

Sorry for the Gallup mention. I should have typed. Rasmussen and Emerson. Sorry.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

And what happens if Biden captures Arizona and Florida, states where he is currently leading?

On top of that, why not choose a candidate that can help him nail down Arizona and Florida (and force Trump to spend a lot of resources in other states like Texas)?

Again, this is my point. Yes, the Midwestern approach to choosing the VP is one valid approach. But there are other approaches just as valid, and some would argue, more valid.

You're talking about flipping at least 3 states with at least 10 EC votes from an incumbent with the main issue in this election being economic recovery.

All I have to say is good luck with that.

 

[OSU_Orlando]

Or the opportunity to see her unfavorability rise to Warren and Harris' level (or even surpass) once more people learn about her. And you can bet it will if she is the VP nominee for Biden.

Also, there is still a good chunk of people who haven't decided their stance on Harris. Which again, proved your claim wrong that everybody has already made up their mind on Harris.

Sorry, I just don't think that poll helps your argument (what ever it is now) for Klobuchar that much.

You can't really follow the points I'm making but I'll break it down for you...


1) Harris prime/front running candidate to be the Dem nominee with a cohort of media backing, dems rejected her harshly
2) When presented with evidence that show her being largely unfavorable to a large portion of registered dems (the people you need to excite to vote on election day...the Dems under 45) you say I'm wrong.

You've presented information for months about moderates vs progressives and have gotten so much egg on your face but continue being you.