Tramel's ScissorTales: Which teams are holding up in Big 12 efficiency ratings?
Berry TramelOklahoman
Here’s a question. How good does the OSU defense need to be in most years to make the Cowboys Big 12 championship contenders?
Good? Great? Acceptable?
In the nine years I’ve been tabulating Big 12 efficiency ratings, OSU twice has had the league’s best defense: 2013, when the Cowboys had the Big 12 title in their grasp before a Bedlam meltdown in the final two minutes of the regular season, and 2021, when OSU finished atop the standings but lost a 21-16 classic to Baylor in the championship game.
I assume the Cowboys had the league’s best defense in 2011, when they won their only Big 12 championship.
But the evidence is clear. OSU’s best teams have been marked by conference-best defenses.
Which means uh-oh for Cowboy fans, since Mike Gundy’s 2022 team is back to being offense-heavy. But uh-oh doesn’t have to mean oh-no.
My first efficiency ratings of the year are out, and OSU’s defense is not in bad shape. The Cowboys rank fifth.
It’s early. It’s way early. I wait until most teams have played three conference games, and OSU and Texas Christian have played just two each.
Wild fluctuations can occur early. Texas, for example, was blessed by playing defense against OU’s Davis Beville/wildcat offense. Most defenses will shine against such a formation, and UT’s did.
Over the course of the season, those kinds of peculiarities will smooth out. Missing key players, playing against backups, weather factors. All those things go into how well an offense or defense functions.
Which leads me to my efficiency ratings. I long ago grew tired of points per game and yardage totals as barometers.
Not all football games are made the same. Here’s a prime example.
Against Texas Tech a few weeks ago, Texas gave up 456 total yards and 34 points in regulation. Against Texas Tech, OSU gave up 527 total yards and 31 points.
Elementary analysis would say those defenses performed about the same. Not so.
Tech did its damage in 10 possessions against Texas. Tech against OSU had 14 possessions.
Big difference. Huge difference.
An offense’s job, when it takes the field, is to score. A defense’s job, when it takes the field, is to prevent scoring. A long game, with abundant possessions, is going to inflate the offensive numbers.
Think of it like baseball. You know how to limit scoring in baseball? Play six innings. I promise you, scoring will go down.
So I don’t measure offenses and defenses by game. I measure them by possessions. How efficient are they scoring or preventing scoring?
For offenses, I give full credit for a touchdown and half credit for a field goal. To keep the numbers similar, I measure defenses by their opponents’ offensive efficiency.
So an offense that scores five touchdowns (or four touchdowns and two field goals) is working at 50% efficiency. By the way, .500 offense is outstanding. That’s Baker Mayfield’s offense at its best. Mason Rudolph’s offense at its best. A .400 offense is really good. Mediocre settles in around .350.
For a defense, anything under .200 is world class. OSU’s .150 number a year ago was the best in Big 12 history. Outstanding. Anything under .300 is good. Anything approaching .400 is not. The middle of the pack usually is around .350.
I use conference games only. Sorry. Too many Big 12 non-conference games are against inferior competition. They don’t count. I guess I could use non-conference games against legitimate opponents, but that distorts the pool. One of the cool things about the Big 12 schedule is everybody’s schedule is 89% the same. You play everybody but yourself.
So every Tuesday, I’ll update the Big 12 efficiency numbers for you. They will become increasingly relevant as the season goes on.
OFFENSE
1. Texas .565: The UT offense looks awfully good. Of course, the Longhorns have played OU, Tech and West Virginia. Not exactly Doomsday, the Steel Curtain or the Purple People Eaters.2. West Virginia .529: WVU is 0-2 in Big 12 play, but you can’t blame the offense. The Mountaineers scored big on Kansas, and though WVU had just 20 points against Texas, that came on only nine possessions.
3. TCU .482: The Horned Frogs had seven touchdowns and two field goals in 15 possessions against OU, and that’s with taking the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter.
4. Oklahoma State .417: Good offense. Probably wouldn’t hurt to uptick this, but as a point of reference, Patrick Mahomes’ final Texas Tech offense had a .406 rating. So don’t get greedy.
5. Kansas .391: The Jayhawk offense is for real. The quicker everyone understands that, the better.
6. Kansas State .371: The Wildcats largely torched OU and Tech, then scored 10 points in 10 possessions against Iowa State.
7. Baylor .364: Not a bad number for the Bears. Most years, a .364 offensive rating would put a team in the upper half of the league. We’ll see how 2022 goes.
8. Texas Tech .346: We might be seeing a rise in Big 12 offenses, after a couple of years of defensive surge. You saw them against OSU. If Tech ranks eighth in Big 12 offense, it’s an offensive league.
9. Iowa State .224: Uh, Iowa State’s offense is stuck in neutral. Four touchdowns and five field goals in 29 total possessions.
10. Oklahoma .217: If you want to keep score, OU’s offensive rating with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback is .361 - five touchdowns, three field goals in 18 possessions. Not great. Not terrible. Without Gabriel, OU is .095.
DEFENSE
1. Texas .258: The Longhorns’ shutout in the Cotton Bowl was a mirage that will come out in the wash.2. Iowa State .267: The Cyclones play legitimate defense. Consistent, annual, legitimate defense. They held down Kansas. They held down Kansas State. In those two games, they gave up three touchdowns and one field goal combined in 20 possessions.
3. Kansas State .284: This number is a little enhanced by getting to play Iowa State.
4. TCU .286: The Horned Frogs got to play a half against Davis Beville. Even allowed Beville to finish off a touchdown drive and direct fully another. Makes me a little curious about TCU’s defense.
5. Oklahoma State .308: Good, solid number that probably needs to be better for the Cowboys to reach the Big 12 Championship Game but is an excellent place to start.
6. Baylor .375: Sort of like OSU; not nearly as good a defense as last season.
7. Kansas .419: A bad number, but actually a lot better than the Jayhawk standard of the last decade or so. KU was .597 last year, .447 the year before and .505 the year before that. You get the point.
8. Texas Tech .446: We can cut the Red Raiders some slack. They’ve played against three high-level offenses – Texas, K-State, OSU.
9. Oklahoma .538: Brent Venables, your mission is clear.
10. West Virginia .676: Holy nightmare, Batman.
Projections
One of the fun things about the ratings is the ability to project a score. It’s not really a prediction. But using the numbers, you can produce a projected final score that provides some guardrails on what kind of game it could be and who might be favored. Let’s go.Oklahoma State at TCU: Horned Frogs 37-32. Seems in the neighborhood on the scoring likelihood. TCU’s rout of OU is what gives the Frogs the edge in the numbers.
Kansas at Oklahoma: Jayhawks 38-26. Surprised? You shouldn’t be. KU has won low-scoring and high-scoring. The Sooners looked shaky on both sides.
Baylor at West Virginia: Bears 35-29. Like OSU and TCU, these two teams have played just two conference games each, so don’t put too much stock in them.
Texas at Iowa State: Longhorns 30-17. The projections tend to suggest close games and only rarely a blowout. This could be a blowout.
