I've had some requests to put together a centralized thread for all re-alignment news. Already had the thought in mind and was just waiting for a clarity on a few bits of info. So, this will serve as our Realignment Megathread, for any and all news. Discussion of that news is fine too.
What we're hearing (Sunday AM).
To start, I'll just say that almost everything is in play. That's all three of the ACC, B1G and PAC, plus a re-formed Big 12.
We'll tackle the latter first. Yes, options of adding teams or poaching from other P5 conferences is being done by the Big 12 brass. It has to be done for a variety of reasons. It's an exercise in futility at this point, but at least the Conference and remaining schools can say "hey, we tried our best and it didn't work." Barring some shocking interest from other P5 schools, it's a non-starter. The Big 12 will be no more sooner (pun intended) rather than later.
Things will begin to kick into high gear on Monday, when Texas and Oklahoma are expected to notify the Big 12 that they will not be renewing the Grant of Rights that currently runs through 2025. This is the first official step that triggers a number of things, but is still short of the two fully exiting the conference. What they are hoping for - and have been since they started negotiating with the SEC 6-12 months ago - is that the official step on GoR will trigger a cascade effect among the remaining 8 and new notices of non-renewal on GoR come from that group. Why? If the conference dissolves, all of the big $ penalties go away. Numerous schools with intent to leave weakens the conference to the point that OU/UT can at some point just say "hey, we're done after this season." And by all appearances, they are going to get their wish. For this round to come down to the SEC adding two schools (in 2025) and everyone else standing pat (which means a zombie Big 12, with 2-4 additions from G5) is beyond comprehension. It's just not going to go that way. If this winds up as anything other than the P4 remaining conferences going to 16 (or more) teams, it will be the most surprised I have been in over 20 years of doing this. Here's the latest I have on OSU's standing.
SEC - The thought that Texas might be using the SEC news as an end-around to get to Independent status appears to have largely been a fear-based meme. Who could blame anyone for questioning Bevo's motives in realignment chess? The whole country saw how they can operate the last go-round. But it looks like they are SEC bound. That knocks out the theory that OSU would take their place and move to the SEC with OU (UT Indy). However, we are hearing from several places that the OU-UT move may just be the SEC's first step in a major move and 16 may not be where they stop. 18 or 20 is in play. In that scenario, you have to think OSU is on the radar. Mind you, I've not heard any specific teams mentioned in additional SEC expansion (well, other than one tweet that said Clemson, FSU, Ohio State and Michigan), so I'm not saying OSU is back in SEC contention. Only that they may be looking to add more schools and OSU would be a school that would make sense to look at.
B1G - Talks are occurring (through intermediaries). There has been some conflicting information on who initiated the conversation, but to an extent it doesn't matter. OSU's reps reached out and the answer from the B1G was positive. That's the part that matters. Earlier I said no way this happens. What changed? Apparently B1G brass has figured out that this may be the "big one" round of realignment and that it's about athletics, not academics. OSU isn't a slouch academically and is continually improving. That helps. It is a concern, as is culture. What really matters is the 2 million or so TV viewers nationally that watch Oklahoma State football games. Of the remaining 8, that's far and away the best available TV numbers. Same for any realistic potential poaching from other P5's. Kansas and OSU to the former Big 10 has a nice ring to it, doesn't it?
PAC-12 - It all comes down to the "package" here. A package of Texas Tech and the Kansas schools looks pretty attractive. OSU plus all three of the Texas schools (Tech, TCU and BU) not as much.
ACC - At the start, this looked like the most attractive option, and still could wind up there. Not much new news on this front that I've been able to glean. That's ok. Until dominoes start to fall, all options remain viable.
The most encouraging thing I've heard in all of this is how pro-active and even aggressive new President Shrum and new A.D. Weiberg have been. Additionally, I was told that while OSU was blindsided just like everyone else by the OU/UT move, realignment was a major focus for Holder, Weiberg, Hargis and to a lesser degree Shrum (just because she wasn't "next in line" for as long) in the months preceding both positions changing over.
Oklahoma State is in a really good position, assuming it's "big one" time for realignment. And ALL signs point to that we are at the very beginning of a major, major re-shuffle. At this point, I would say you can basically count on a landing spot for OSU in the PAC or ACC. The B1G talk, while surprising, is outstanding news. If it progresses to an actual offer, I think the OSU admin accepts on the spot and never looks back.
What we're hearing (Sunday AM).
To start, I'll just say that almost everything is in play. That's all three of the ACC, B1G and PAC, plus a re-formed Big 12.
We'll tackle the latter first. Yes, options of adding teams or poaching from other P5 conferences is being done by the Big 12 brass. It has to be done for a variety of reasons. It's an exercise in futility at this point, but at least the Conference and remaining schools can say "hey, we tried our best and it didn't work." Barring some shocking interest from other P5 schools, it's a non-starter. The Big 12 will be no more sooner (pun intended) rather than later.
Things will begin to kick into high gear on Monday, when Texas and Oklahoma are expected to notify the Big 12 that they will not be renewing the Grant of Rights that currently runs through 2025. This is the first official step that triggers a number of things, but is still short of the two fully exiting the conference. What they are hoping for - and have been since they started negotiating with the SEC 6-12 months ago - is that the official step on GoR will trigger a cascade effect among the remaining 8 and new notices of non-renewal on GoR come from that group. Why? If the conference dissolves, all of the big $ penalties go away. Numerous schools with intent to leave weakens the conference to the point that OU/UT can at some point just say "hey, we're done after this season." And by all appearances, they are going to get their wish. For this round to come down to the SEC adding two schools (in 2025) and everyone else standing pat (which means a zombie Big 12, with 2-4 additions from G5) is beyond comprehension. It's just not going to go that way. If this winds up as anything other than the P4 remaining conferences going to 16 (or more) teams, it will be the most surprised I have been in over 20 years of doing this. Here's the latest I have on OSU's standing.
SEC - The thought that Texas might be using the SEC news as an end-around to get to Independent status appears to have largely been a fear-based meme. Who could blame anyone for questioning Bevo's motives in realignment chess? The whole country saw how they can operate the last go-round. But it looks like they are SEC bound. That knocks out the theory that OSU would take their place and move to the SEC with OU (UT Indy). However, we are hearing from several places that the OU-UT move may just be the SEC's first step in a major move and 16 may not be where they stop. 18 or 20 is in play. In that scenario, you have to think OSU is on the radar. Mind you, I've not heard any specific teams mentioned in additional SEC expansion (well, other than one tweet that said Clemson, FSU, Ohio State and Michigan), so I'm not saying OSU is back in SEC contention. Only that they may be looking to add more schools and OSU would be a school that would make sense to look at.
B1G - Talks are occurring (through intermediaries). There has been some conflicting information on who initiated the conversation, but to an extent it doesn't matter. OSU's reps reached out and the answer from the B1G was positive. That's the part that matters. Earlier I said no way this happens. What changed? Apparently B1G brass has figured out that this may be the "big one" round of realignment and that it's about athletics, not academics. OSU isn't a slouch academically and is continually improving. That helps. It is a concern, as is culture. What really matters is the 2 million or so TV viewers nationally that watch Oklahoma State football games. Of the remaining 8, that's far and away the best available TV numbers. Same for any realistic potential poaching from other P5's. Kansas and OSU to the former Big 10 has a nice ring to it, doesn't it?
PAC-12 - It all comes down to the "package" here. A package of Texas Tech and the Kansas schools looks pretty attractive. OSU plus all three of the Texas schools (Tech, TCU and BU) not as much.
ACC - At the start, this looked like the most attractive option, and still could wind up there. Not much new news on this front that I've been able to glean. That's ok. Until dominoes start to fall, all options remain viable.
The most encouraging thing I've heard in all of this is how pro-active and even aggressive new President Shrum and new A.D. Weiberg have been. Additionally, I was told that while OSU was blindsided just like everyone else by the OU/UT move, realignment was a major focus for Holder, Weiberg, Hargis and to a lesser degree Shrum (just because she wasn't "next in line" for as long) in the months preceding both positions changing over.
Oklahoma State is in a really good position, assuming it's "big one" time for realignment. And ALL signs point to that we are at the very beginning of a major, major re-shuffle. At this point, I would say you can basically count on a landing spot for OSU in the PAC or ACC. The B1G talk, while surprising, is outstanding news. If it progresses to an actual offer, I think the OSU admin accepts on the spot and never looks back.
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