what am I missing here?
- Thread starter MegaPoke
- Start date
It's like Wall Street is just optimistic about the future despite the nazi racist sexist madman running the country.
I don't quite understand it either, but my pissant 401k account has been on a roll since Election Day. Maybe now I'll get to eat the fancy cat food when I retire instead of the off brand.
I don't quite understand it either, but my pissant 401k account has been on a roll since Election Day. Maybe now I'll get to eat the fancy cat food when I retire instead of the off brand.
Is that the current deficit or the 1985 Flutie-era deficit like your last whataboutism?
Ask Biff.
"The country — we took it over and owed over $20 trillion," Trump said in an interview on Fox News, referring to the total national debt, which has hovered near $20 trillion since early 2016.
"As you know, the last eight years, [the federal government] borrowed more than it did in the whole history of our country," Trump said. "So they borrowed more than $10 trillion, right? And yet we picked up $5.2 trillion just in the stock market. Possibly picked up the whole thing in terms of the first nine months, in terms of value."
"So you could say, in one sense, we're really increasing values. And maybe in a sense we're reducing debt. But we're very honored by it," Trump said.
I don't know if Trump should get credit for the market continuing its increase. But the left can't give the credit to the past president after making all of the following predictions of a Trump presidency:
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/...pens-to-the-markets-if-donald-trump-wins.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/thi...to-the-stock-market-if-donald-trump-wins.html
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/04/investing/donald-trump-stock-drop-citi/
Its clear the people who wanted Hillary to win went out of their way to broadcast (loudly and through every channel possible) that the alternative would tank the market. Yet clearly the opposite has happened.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/...pens-to-the-markets-if-donald-trump-wins.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/thi...to-the-stock-market-if-donald-trump-wins.html
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/04/investing/donald-trump-stock-drop-citi/
Its clear the people who wanted Hillary to win went out of their way to broadcast (loudly and through every channel possible) that the alternative would tank the market. Yet clearly the opposite has happened.
I'm honestly not propping up Trump here. I'm asking, what am I missing as regards stock market confidence. At best, I've been shown a graph that implies that an Obama upturn was not derailed by the election of Literally Hitler, and has in fact continued to climb at an even higher rate, setting multiple records for such.
What. Am. I. Missing. please and thank you.
You might argue that he shouldn't get credit for starting it, but why has it continued to climb and set records under this guy?
What. Am. I. Missing. please and thank you.
You might argue that he shouldn't get credit for starting it, but why has it continued to climb and set records under this guy?
Stock market will not collapse as long as unemployment is reasonable and interest rates remain low. You can't make crap in fixed instruments cash has to go somewhere.
Companies are flush with cash and are investing in upgrades and new technologies, consumer confidence is high.
I know this amazing run makes people nervous but outside of some minor corrections and profit taking this market should continue it's bull run. There is literally no other place to park money and make a good return. Keep an eye on consumer confidence and unemployment when those start to tank then it's time start converting to cash.
Companies are flush with cash and are investing in upgrades and new technologies, consumer confidence is high.
I know this amazing run makes people nervous but outside of some minor corrections and profit taking this market should continue it's bull run. There is literally no other place to park money and make a good return. Keep an eye on consumer confidence and unemployment when those start to tank then it's time start converting to cash.
Yes, quite a few economists are predicting a collapse. Some are saying it will be of devastating proportions. I don't remember his name - John Smith? - connected to George Soros - is saying it may be the worst collapse in history.
Some of the run up (not all of it) is due to confidence in corporate tax reform getting through. The anticipation of it spurring growth.
Yes.
And I'm not sure why I need to point this out but there is a fair bit of space between collapsing and setting 47 record highs.
Really not interested in engaging you in tribal dodgeball ITT. Do you have an explanation or not?
Lear Capital has been predicting catastrophe for the last couple of years while saying silver is going to $100/oz. Silver was $17.22 today.
Unemployment claims fell to the lowest levels in 43 years.
What’s funny is that Trump has zero to do with market advances but when it crashes, HOLY SHIT...TRUMP!
Dow down 31 points today. Thanks Trump!
Let's have a touch o' perspective. Here's Head passing along his usual Chicken Little alarmism during the Obama admin:
Royal Bank of Scotland, a large financial/investment institution is advising all their clients to sell EVERYTHING!
Please tell us again how great that Obama stock market is?']They anticipate a world wide collapse of the stock markets and due to the collapse in oil prices, our board libs are so proud of, deflation will devalue other investments like real estate and greatly slow spending on goods and services.
Please tell us again how great that Obama stock market is?[/URL]']
Please tell us again how great that Obama stock market is?[/URL]']Hope they're wrong but this is looking like it could get much worse than what happened in the last year of GWB.[/URL]
The mantra for years has been that it had nothing to do with the POTUS according to @TPOKE who was bragging about all the money he was making:
Yeah sys, I'm cleaning up in the stock market and my company stock jumped 47% last year. Still trying to figure out what Obama had to do with it. My faith is in God and the Americans who choose to work everyday, not the government.
Here's @poke2001 right after that: "Stock market is definitely doing well, but that is thanks to the fed, not Obama." and "You understand the stock market is not controlled by the president, correct?"
Here's one of my favorites:
The stock market is booming because the Fed is artificially keeping the interest rate low so they can continue to print and then borrow back their own money at a low rate. This is killing the bond market. As a consequence, people aren't investing in bonds and moving their money over to stocks. This new money in stocks is inflating the stock market.
But..... we're in a depression']But..... we're in a depression[/URL]']As soon as the fed starts raising rates again you'll see a huge dip in the stock market and a subsequent bump in the bond market as people re-balance their portfolio.
Here's another nugget:
The stock market has been trending "up" ever since its inception. So it stands to reason that every president will have encountered a new stock market "high" point during his term.
I'm glad the stock market is doing so well, I just wish all the conservatives on here were an proud of it as me.
Royal Bank of Scotland, a large financial/investment institution is advising all their clients to sell EVERYTHING!
Please tell us again how great that Obama stock market is?']They anticipate a world wide collapse of the stock markets and due to the collapse in oil prices, our board libs are so proud of, deflation will devalue other investments like real estate and greatly slow spending on goods and services.
Please tell us again how great that Obama stock market is?[/URL]']
Please tell us again how great that Obama stock market is?[/URL]']Hope they're wrong but this is looking like it could get much worse than what happened in the last year of GWB.[/URL]
The mantra for years has been that it had nothing to do with the POTUS according to @TPOKE who was bragging about all the money he was making:
Yeah sys, I'm cleaning up in the stock market and my company stock jumped 47% last year. Still trying to figure out what Obama had to do with it. My faith is in God and the Americans who choose to work everyday, not the government.
Here's @poke2001 right after that: "Stock market is definitely doing well, but that is thanks to the fed, not Obama." and "You understand the stock market is not controlled by the president, correct?"
Here's one of my favorites:
The stock market is booming because the Fed is artificially keeping the interest rate low so they can continue to print and then borrow back their own money at a low rate. This is killing the bond market. As a consequence, people aren't investing in bonds and moving their money over to stocks. This new money in stocks is inflating the stock market.
But..... we're in a depression']But..... we're in a depression[/URL]']As soon as the fed starts raising rates again you'll see a huge dip in the stock market and a subsequent bump in the bond market as people re-balance their portfolio.
Here's another nugget:
The stock market has been trending "up" ever since its inception. So it stands to reason that every president will have encountered a new stock market "high" point during his term.
I'm glad the stock market is doing so well, I just wish all the conservatives on here were an proud of it as me.
I was a bit off on the years. It was 44 according to the text in the body of the article.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/u...n-43-years-despite-hurricanes/article/2637266
I don't think anyone is necessarily saying it is Trump that the market is doing well.
The question is why is the market doing so well for so long. I'm starting to wonder what part of the market may be a bubble and when it will pop.
The question is why is the market doing so well for so long. I'm starting to wonder what part of the market may be a bubble and when it will pop.
I'm not saying Trump has generated confidence in the market. But I'm not saying he hasn't.
What I am definitely saying is that the political hyperbole surrounding the man doesn't seem to have negatively impacted the market or the job market, unless I'm missing something.
What bubble could it be? Serious question.
I know 3 different financial advisors and all 3 were consistent about Obama and Hillary not being in office:
1. Corporate balance sheets have never been healthier in the history of the US, they have literally hoarded cash and it was unprecedented. This build up of cash happened under Obama due to the lack of confidence in the economy under that administration.
2. Sitting on cash means you are losing money because being invested in cash means your cash is losing ground to inflation, your purchasing power is decreasing. Horrible investment strategy. It killed good business people to sit on cash, that is how bad the Obama administration was seen when it came to the economy, NO FAITH. None at all. Zilch.
3. Why did corporations sit on cash? Because Obama and the Dems created a negative business environment. More taxes, more stupid regulations, budget deficits, expanding government programs, bad trade deals, the desire to raise the salary level to an insane amount to be classified as salaried, unfettered immigration that put a drain on local and federal government, losing our position internationally, screwed up healthcare. The previous administration was a socialist one, not capitalistic. Some of this perhaps was unfair, but the Boards had no faith in investing in an Obama economy.
4. Sitting on excess cash to an all time record levels in the US for a long period of time created huge pent up demand to invest. Huge. These 3 advisors all said if Trump wins, the cash will be moved from the sidelines over time and not all at once but it would happen immediately. This is why the market has slowly gone up, they all 3 were proven correct on their predictions. Research showed similar sentiment existed with individual investors.
5. These 3 advisers each only went to this conversation with me when they knew we could talk about the why of all this without it getting political.
6. I only know a few millionaires, they are spread out around the country, all of them just due to Trump being elected started major expansion of their businesses. For as crazy as it sounds, Trump brought more certainty to the future of the financial decisions being made in Washington and hence less risk and uncertainty to the markets.
People usually put their life savings and their corporations before politics. Money talks.
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Serious response....
Now that you have said what you are and aren't saying....I don't think you are even that far off from Syskatine.
It seems to me that you are saying about the same thing....he hasn't fvcked up the stock market.
Which also means that the (to some) hysterical overreaction to his drama and calling him into question also hasn't hurt the stock market.
What you MIGHT (not saying definitively are) missing is the thought or belief by many that whomever the President is and whatever the President does really doesn't have that much effect on the market one way or the other. The reason I think you MIGHT be missing that is your reluctance to proclaim one way or the other whether or not he has generated confidence. You're clear that he hasn't had a negative impact. Maybe it's just true that any impact any President would have on the market is largely negligible. Maybe you missed that.
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Many people, some on this board, expressed the same as in your #3 for the entire 8 years of Obama. They were told this was the new normal and that those polices were, in fact, making the economy hum along even if it was at a paltry 1-2% of GDP.
Investor and consumer sentiment is a major player, and who is or is not President can move that needle big time. Obama was about wealth redistribution, not wealth creation. Trump might not be seen as a financial genius, but compared to Obama he was in terms of creating new wealth. Trump moved the market, and it was investor sentiment that caused it. Any financial advisor not clued in to sentiment trends is missing an important indicator.
Does that growth in GDP out pace inflation? That is no growth.
Good article on this...
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/13/defaults-subprime-auto-loans-falling-used-values-negative-equity/
Crazy, average negative equity for a trade for new car is $5,195. Once upon a time you could not even make a trade with negative equity. This is business ethics to me, why would anyone want to make a sale so bad they bury a customer with negative equity and a ridiculously extended loan term (some up to 84 months), between the negative equity and the long loan term (which means much more interest paid which decreases the amount towards principal on each payment), you are never going to come out good on that deal. I guess if you are that stupid and have to have a new car that bad......
You get that 47 record highs means nothing right? Somebody could go calculate how many occurred under the last guy if they wanted to and it wouldn't mean a damn thing. The rate of growth has slowed slightly over the past couple of years, but still an impressive run overall. Consumer confidence, cost of borrowing, lack of alternatives, etc...
Credit whatever you want to DJT, but don't be so foolish as to think the POTUS (any POTUS) can do much to cause the market to go up. If you want to celebrate him not fvcking up a solid recovery, feel free to. He is still a buffoon.
If you say so Butthead.
I don't think a POTUS has much impact within 10 months.... particularly if they haven't done anything economically substantive, e.g. no tax changes, no health care changes, no infrastructure changes, etc. He hasn't even submitted a health care plan to Congress. Minimum wage hasn't changed. What has he done to impact anything?
He changed investor sentiment. You had record cash being hoarded by US corporations under the previous administration, it was unprecedented.
Literally from the day Trump came in to office this cash has been coming off the sideline in to the market. No investor is going to dump that cash all at once, it has been put in the market consistently since he took office.
Investors have changed their behavior, there was pent up demand to invest.
If tax reform does not get done, my opinion is that the market will pull back.
Investor sentiment is not what it was when Trump took office, market may have over reacted for the ability of a Republican Congress to get things done.
The bubble is investor sentiment and when does it reverse if a Republican Congress does not work with Trump to create more jobs, improve trade, lower taxes, and decrease Regs.
Investors reacted positively to a Trump election, they put records amount of cash back in the market based on future expectations of rising corporate earnings and a growing economy.
This is all real simple, market only increases when demand exists for stocks. That has happened due to investor sentiment and what the election meant to investors.
The evidence is black and white.....record cash hoarded under previous administration, and then it systematically invested over time under Trump with the expectation of increased earnings.
You are right that Trump has not moved the market, investors have but it was tied to pent up demand to invest with excess cash and the belief by investors a new President tied to true wealth generation and not wealth redistribution within society would increase corporate earnings.
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If you were a car company why wouldn't you? The govt has proven it will step in and make taxpayers foot the bill for your bad business.
1. Theories and narratives. Who has done this and seen an improved stock valuation as a result?
2. So this is due to Biff, but the prior 8 years are not creditable to his predecessor?
I mildly agree with this position, yet as I posted earlier in the thread, that's not what we were told during the entire run-up to the election. Every news channel, media outlet, newspaper, etc... ALL stated that a Trump election would cause the market to fall, and the most left-leaning organizations predicted his election would cause a recession. Yet we continue to hum along, and now we are told, "yea, but the president doesn't really influence the market and economy".
