Differs a bit from Scott Ritter. Ritter thinks Russia is winning and will win, but its unwillingness and failure to impede armament reinforcement from the west means the fight could drag out for a very long time, assuming Ukraine is willing to absorb the heavy casualties it has absorbed to date. This assessment paints a much darker picture for Ukraine. I wish this war would end tonight!
Ukrainian War Assessment From Moon Of Alabama
- Thread starter Ponca Dan
- Start date
ISW & UAMaps are better sources.
Article you posted is an echo chamber.
The $40B we just gave, is still $45B less the the amount of equipment left in Afghanistan by the cadaver in chief. All we are doing now is honoring the Treaty we signed with The Ukraine, UK & the GD russian in Budapest, 1994. To complain about tax dollars going here, but not complaining vociferously about how much more money is wasted taking care of illegals, their spawn, illegals incarcerated for crimes and the toll they take on Americans through crime is disingenuous. The fact is there are NO American soldiers being killed in Ukraine, while 1,000's of Americans ARE being killed annually, in the US, by illegals that shouldn't be here.
If you are wholly against war, this is indeed a noble stance, but unrealistic and unicornish. There will always be wars.......the key is to mitigate the run ups to war through concerted efforts by the world community beforehand.
mwi.usma.edu
Good article about the intelligence miscalculations......many of which came from Ukrainian traitors that where run off after the 2014 revolution.
As long as Ukrainians are willing to fight, you keep arming them and letting them kill russians. Wouldn't bother me to know that 500 years from now, Ukrainian farmers will still be turning over bleached bones of russians and traitorous "Ukrainians" when tilling their fields.
If you think litte putin is crazy enough to use nukes, then you have to believe his is crazy enough to attack a NATO country someday, so keep the killing fields in Ukraine, let them defend their country while we arm them to the teeth and hopefully they will recover ground lost in 2022 and 2014. At the very least maybe little putin will get Mussolini-ed.
Honestly who knows what is going on though......find as many sources as you can (which you are very good at BTW), but the reason I like ISW is because they mention what either the bolshevik or Ukrainian General Staff says, then add we have no independent verification so won't confirm that information. They stay completely out of the civilian massacre lane and state each daily report why.
Obviously we aren't going to change each other's minds.......but there are intangibles that none of these reports will measure and the implicit intangibles are solidly Ukrainians' favor. In my opinion, the biggest farce to emerge in all this, is the absolute uselessness of the UN. That organization needs to be strangled in the crib and something better evolve, or nothing at all. The LoN and UN was/are both abysmal failures and their strategy, to stop anything remotely war like is so ineffective, in its execution, it is akin to trying to get rid of cockroaches by leaving more food crumbs all over the house.
www.dailymail.co.uk
the russian military is the same composted heap of shit it has always been and while many argue about America's missteps (especially over the last 50 years or so), there is no comparison between the two countries of America and russia.
The world still continues to not understand that upfront deterrence is much more efficient, less costly and more lastling then after the fact hand wringing and playing catch up.
All the Ukranians I stay in touch with, not a one wants to quit and give up anything else and in fact they want their country back, even upon their own death. I'm in Dusseldorf right now (business this last week in Germany and Netherlands) and headed back to Vienna tomorrow for a conference. There is huge support everywhere I go for Ukraine and when I'm out with one of my Ukrainian tee-shirts on, numerous (I've quit counting when and where) people give me the Victory sign, some the thumbs up, some Slava Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens I meet have incredible stories of being kicked out of the areas russian took in 2014, because they disagreed with not being part of Ukraine.
I have a folder for only Ukraine vs russia articles. Many from before 2/24. Fascinating to go back and read some of them knowing what we know now. Fact is there are reams of miscalculations, lies and outright mischaracterizations. I remember mostly when Kiev was going to fall in 96 hours........my guess is if everyone who goes back and forth on this subject were to sit down right now and write 10 specific outcomes they think will happen, in this war, they might get 1 (if any) exactly right.
As in everything with life, eventually you have to choose a side.....it may even be the side of lesser evil (our elections come to mind). I'm comfortable with mine.
Article you posted is an echo chamber.
The $40B we just gave, is still $45B less the the amount of equipment left in Afghanistan by the cadaver in chief. All we are doing now is honoring the Treaty we signed with The Ukraine, UK & the GD russian in Budapest, 1994. To complain about tax dollars going here, but not complaining vociferously about how much more money is wasted taking care of illegals, their spawn, illegals incarcerated for crimes and the toll they take on Americans through crime is disingenuous. The fact is there are NO American soldiers being killed in Ukraine, while 1,000's of Americans ARE being killed annually, in the US, by illegals that shouldn't be here.
If you are wholly against war, this is indeed a noble stance, but unrealistic and unicornish. There will always be wars.......the key is to mitigate the run ups to war through concerted efforts by the world community beforehand.
Putin’s Bad Math: The Root of Russian Miscalculation in Ukraine - Modern War Institute
The bear is snared. After more than two months of war, the Russian campaign in Ukraine has stalled. The stalemate settling across the battlefield has left legions of analysts, strategists, […]
mwi.usma.edu
Good article about the intelligence miscalculations......many of which came from Ukrainian traitors that where run off after the 2014 revolution.
As long as Ukrainians are willing to fight, you keep arming them and letting them kill russians. Wouldn't bother me to know that 500 years from now, Ukrainian farmers will still be turning over bleached bones of russians and traitorous "Ukrainians" when tilling their fields.
If you think litte putin is crazy enough to use nukes, then you have to believe his is crazy enough to attack a NATO country someday, so keep the killing fields in Ukraine, let them defend their country while we arm them to the teeth and hopefully they will recover ground lost in 2022 and 2014. At the very least maybe little putin will get Mussolini-ed.
Honestly who knows what is going on though......find as many sources as you can (which you are very good at BTW), but the reason I like ISW is because they mention what either the bolshevik or Ukrainian General Staff says, then add we have no independent verification so won't confirm that information. They stay completely out of the civilian massacre lane and state each daily report why.
Obviously we aren't going to change each other's minds.......but there are intangibles that none of these reports will measure and the implicit intangibles are solidly Ukrainians' favor. In my opinion, the biggest farce to emerge in all this, is the absolute uselessness of the UN. That organization needs to be strangled in the crib and something better evolve, or nothing at all. The LoN and UN was/are both abysmal failures and their strategy, to stop anything remotely war like is so ineffective, in its execution, it is akin to trying to get rid of cockroaches by leaving more food crumbs all over the house.
The White Death sniper who killed 22 Russians on Christmas Day
White Death was the haunting and inspiring alias of Simo Hayha, one of the most prolific marksmen in military history. Finns are now finding inspiration in the slayer of the Red Army
The world still continues to not understand that upfront deterrence is much more efficient, less costly and more lastling then after the fact hand wringing and playing catch up.
All the Ukranians I stay in touch with, not a one wants to quit and give up anything else and in fact they want their country back, even upon their own death. I'm in Dusseldorf right now (business this last week in Germany and Netherlands) and headed back to Vienna tomorrow for a conference. There is huge support everywhere I go for Ukraine and when I'm out with one of my Ukrainian tee-shirts on, numerous (I've quit counting when and where) people give me the Victory sign, some the thumbs up, some Slava Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens I meet have incredible stories of being kicked out of the areas russian took in 2014, because they disagreed with not being part of Ukraine.
I have a folder for only Ukraine vs russia articles. Many from before 2/24. Fascinating to go back and read some of them knowing what we know now. Fact is there are reams of miscalculations, lies and outright mischaracterizations. I remember mostly when Kiev was going to fall in 96 hours........my guess is if everyone who goes back and forth on this subject were to sit down right now and write 10 specific outcomes they think will happen, in this war, they might get 1 (if any) exactly right.
As in everything with life, eventually you have to choose a side.....it may even be the side of lesser evil (our elections come to mind). I'm comfortable with mine.
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I remember when you assured us Putin was peaceful and wasn't going to invade Ukraine.
I believe your memory is faulty.
Professor MARK GALEOTTI examines Vladimir Putin's bunker
MARK GALEOTTI Some years ago, I lived on Kutuzovsky Prospekt, one of the roads into central Moscow and the favoured route of President Vladimir Putin's motorcade.
Another good article by someone who has watched little putin many years.
I enjoy your back and forth with Dan. I agree with both of you.Professor MARK GALEOTTI examines Vladimir Putin's bunker
MARK GALEOTTI Some years ago, I lived on Kutuzovsky Prospekt, one of the roads into central Moscow and the favoured route of President Vladimir Putin's motorcade.
Another good article by someone who has watched little putin many years.
FYI, you may start seeing some things come out assessing that Russia has fixed its mistakes. They are fighting better these days. Their target selections are improving, and they now have veteran forces, that have had their poor soldiers bled out. Their units will start to get tougher going forward. I think Putin can wait out his military's education. After that it is a political game of how long he can last at home. If he can wait on the military without losing support in Moscow, the tide of this war may very well change, but Russia has lost their ability to shock their opponents into a quick surrender. If they wish to win, they will establish air dominance, then bring in their Bear bombers. Russian has been having a series of victories lately. If you can keep your eye on the air war it will decide the victor, but the air war is not covered all that well in a war that is not covered all that well. Watch their target locations and assess their strategic value. Anything fuel related will be a major problem to Ukraine. I hope your GF is still doing well, and I keep praying for both of you.
Professor MARK GALEOTTI examines Vladimir Putin's bunker
MARK GALEOTTI Some years ago, I lived on Kutuzovsky Prospekt, one of the roads into central Moscow and the favoured route of President Vladimir Putin's motorcade.
Another good article by someone who has watched little putin many years.
For what it’s worth, @windriverrange, I also appreciate our “back and forth” and agree with your perspective far more than disagree. My perspective has always been focused on Americas’s illogical involvement in the conflict, that American foreign policy harbors much of the blame for starting this war, that our Neocon elites that control our foreign policy don’t give a fig how many Ukrainians are killed or have their lives turned upside down, their only aim is to bleed Russia out, both militarily and economically (for far more reasons than there is time to discuss), turn Russia into another vassal state so they can concentrate full attention on their ultimate goal of doing the same thing to China. They devised a plot to lure Putin into attacking Ukraine, which gave them leeway to enrich themselves and their partners in the armaments industry while avoiding engaging our own soldiers, thus assuring the American public will pay little heed into what they are up to. Some on here have interpreted my perspective to mean I am pro-Putin and nothing could be further from the truth, I am rabidly anti-American Neocon.
The thing I most appreciate about our “back and forth” is that unlike our friends @Syskatine and @ClintonDavidScott, who seem to utilize Twitter as their sole source of information you have looked for sources that help you figure out the truth of what is happening in that damned war. Which is also what I do.
As regards the links you provided, while I thank you for posting them I think they fall short of what I’m looking for in my search for truthful reporting of what is happening. Let me take the second link first. I do not believe Putin is a Hitler-like madman, hiding Stalin-like in a bunker out of fear of assassination. From what I have seen he carries a fairly full agenda of public events. I simply do not believe the author is reporting the truth, but rather is engaging in propaganda to keep western spirits high.
The first link is fascinating. It is way too long for my feeble attention span to read in one sitting, so far I have gotten about half way into it. It provides interesting theory of how battles are won and why, and I think it is spot on in its discussion of the importance of the individual soldier’s willpower. And props to the Ukrainian willpower! Those are the ones suffering through the slaughter and their determination is laudable. Where the article disappoints me, at least in the first half, maybe it corrects in the second half, is it is very heavy on theory and claims of Russian failures, but lacks any sense of specifics. I don't think there is a single discussion of a single battle in which he puts his theory to the test. In fact I can recall not a single battle reported by anyone in the western press in which the Russians have been routed. All we are given is bland assessments that Russia has miscalculated and getting its ass handed to it.
Which may be true! Who knows? The links I have provided have tended to be pro-Russia, but at least they have discussed the infrastructure of the war, provided numbers, discussed armaments being used, their proficiency in battle, tactics, etc. One must be very cautious in believing the numbers they provide, but even though the numbers are exaggerated well beyond logic they still show that Russia is winning this war.
Like @Tulsaaggieson I also pray for those Ukrainians who are caught in the conflagration and wish a swift end to their misery. I hope your girlfriend is safe.
America bad bully rabble-rouser…Putin good, just had no choice here.
Got it lol
carry on
I finished the article on Putin’s Math Miscalculation and frankly it comes across as propagandistic wishful thinking (toISW & UAMaps are better sources.
Article you posted is an echo chamber.
The $40B we just gave, is still $45B less the the amount of equipment left in Afghanistan by the cadaver in chief. All we are doing now is honoring the Treaty we signed with The Ukraine, UK & the GD russian in Budapest, 1994. To complain about tax dollars going here, but not complaining vociferously about how much more money is wasted taking care of illegals, their spawn, illegals incarcerated for crimes and the toll they take on Americans through crime is disingenuous. The fact is there are NO American soldiers being killed in Ukraine, while 1,000's of Americans ARE being killed annually, in the US, by illegals that shouldn't be here.
If you are wholly against war, this is indeed a noble stance, but unrealistic and unicornish. There will always be wars.......the key is to mitigate the run ups to war through concerted efforts by the world community beforehand.
Putin’s Bad Math: The Root of Russian Miscalculation in Ukraine - Modern War Institute
The bear is snared. After more than two months of war, the Russian campaign in Ukraine has stalled. The stalemate settling across the battlefield has left legions of analysts, strategists, […]
Good article about the intelligence miscalculations......many of which came from Ukrainian traitors that where run off after the 2014 revolution.
As long as Ukrainians are willing to fight, you keep arming them and letting them kill russians. Wouldn't bother me to know that 500 years from now, Ukrainian farmers will still be turning over bleached bones of russians and traitorous "Ukrainians" when tilling their fields.
If you think litte putin is crazy enough to use nukes, then you have to believe his is crazy enough to attack a NATO country someday, so keep the killing fields in Ukraine, let them defend their country while we arm them to the teeth and hopefully they will recover ground lost in 2022 and 2014. At the very least maybe little putin will get Mussolini-ed.
Honestly who knows what is going on though......find as many sources as you can (which you are very good at BTW), but the reason I like ISW is because they mention what either the bolshevik or Ukrainian General Staff says, then add we have no independent verification so won't confirm that information. They stay completely out of the civilian massacre lane and state each daily report why.
Obviously we aren't going to change each other's minds.......but there are intangibles that none of these reports will measure and the implicit intangibles are solidly Ukrainians' favor. In my opinion, the biggest farce to emerge in all this, is the absolute uselessness of the UN. That organization needs to be strangled in the crib and something better evolve, or nothing at all. The LoN and UN was/are both abysmal failures and their strategy, to stop anything remotely war like is so ineffective, in its execution, it is akin to trying to get rid of cockroaches by leaving more food crumbs all over the house.
the russian military is the same composted heap of shit it has always been and while many argue about America's missteps (especially over the last 50 years or so), there is no comparison between the two countries of America and russia.The White Death sniper who killed 22 Russians on Christmas Day
White Death was the haunting and inspiring alias of Simo Hayha, one of the most prolific marksmen in military history. Finns are now finding inspiration in the slayer of the Red Army
The world still continues to not understand that upfront deterrence is much more efficient, less costly and more lastling then after the fact hand wringing and playing catch up.
All the Ukranians I stay in touch with, not a one wants to quit and give up anything else and in fact they want their country back, even upon their own death. I'm in Dusseldorf right now (business this last week in Germany and Netherlands) and headed back to Vienna tomorrow for a conference. There is huge support everywhere I go for Ukraine and when I'm out with one of my Ukrainian tee-shirts on, numerous (I've quit counting when and where) people give me the Victory sign, some the thumbs up, some Slava Ukraine and Ukrainian citizens I meet have incredible stories of being kicked out of the areas russian took in 2014, because they disagreed with not being part of Ukraine.
I have a folder for only Ukraine vs russia articles. Many from before 2/24. Fascinating to go back and read some of them knowing what we know now. Fact is there are reams of miscalculations, lies and outright mischaracterizations. I remember mostly when Kiev was going to fall in 96 hours........my guess is if everyone who goes back and forth on this subject were to sit down right now and write 10 specific outcomes they think will happen, in this war, they might get 1 (if any) exactly right.
As in everything with life, eventually you have to choose a side.....it may even be the side of lesser evil (our elections come to mind). I'm comfortable with mine.
me at least). But one of the links provided in the article was by the Modern War Institute was everything one could hope for if they’re looking for an objective analysis. I had not known of this site before, but from now on I’ll check in on it regularly. Thank you for pointing me in its direction! And please keep us updated on your girlfriend’s situation. I pray that no harm comes to her or her family.
@PD & @Tulsaggison....I love the back and forth as well. I'm ultimately here to be challenged and see information that eludes me on my own searches. I'm not here to echo chamber out with like minded political dogma and regurgitated political talking points.
@Tulsaaggieson, agree the russian has seemingly fixed some of their tactical deficiencies. Their problem to being with was attacking on too many axises, which given the pre-war intelligence probably didn't seem that risky. Now they are concentrating on much smaller areas and severing GLOC's for the Ukrainian Military in very small AO's with specific targets. One of the things that will hamper them is their conscripts just have 1-year terms, so essentially every 6-months (since they have 2 call ups per year) they will lose numerous combat experienced soldiers to be replaced with new trainees. They still have very ridged command and control lines of communication and no real NCO corp to speak of. Not sure those can be fixed anytime soon. The Ukrainians are in it for the duration and I'm certain some of the things they are accomplishing just aren't talked about. But their combat experience will remain for years past the continued rotation of russian conscripts. Additionally, I bet it will get harder and harder to fill the quotas needed for the russians as more and more news gets out and draft dodging becomes rampit.
Your point about the airforce is right on......it was maybe 3 or 4 days ago that heard they were finally using the Bear bombers. I'm assuming they know there is no threat from surface to air or fighter jets present so can do use freely. Funny side story. A fraternity brother of mine who flew f-16's for nearly 30 years and I had lunch a few weeks back. I asked him if the Ukrainian government gave him Ukrainian citizenship and they had bought some number of F-16's would he go fly. He said "in a heartbeat." Something along the lines off the AVG in China, only being a citizen would theoretically give you GC protection if captured.
@Ponca Dan, you are correct about Modern War Institute site. I have been reading that site for awhile, because it covers numerous subjects of which you'll never hear a peep about from the US media. I also appreciate your "rabid anti neo-con" stance. Whatever my musing are about this subject, I don't want American forces in Ukraine fighting. Ultimately if you can't muster the local support for defending and reconquering your own country, then there is no reason to have Americans there dying. Incidentally feel the same way about Germany, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and a number of other countries.
I think the hitlerish comparison was more towards the mingling of his lack of military experience with his attempt to create perceived military genius from his decisions. Without a doubt would assume he has food tasters and a cadre of loyalists around him, but these are entirely different times from then to now. He does appear to have physical issues though....or could it be an act?
This will end when (if) the russian economy gets so bad that there is enough turmoil inside to force change. I wished the Ukrainians could drive them completely out of Ukrainian territory (including Crimea) but am under no illusions that if it happens at all it will take years. One thing I'm sure the russian isn't counting on is the partisan war that will be carried out against any russian instilled puppet leaders in newly conquered areas. This will be extremely difficult to control.
I appreciate both of your prayers for the gf and family. We talk nearly everyday and currently she can't tell me where she is. In fat they were all instructed to close all their social media accounts so the only way we chat now is via a website I met her on in the first place. Most of the men have been stripped from the police units and sent to the front. My guess is she is either in Kharkiv or someplace west of Sloviansk in the Donbas. Outlier would be Odessa. Her home in Bucha was completely destroyed and her parents who lived in Irpin are somewhere near Lviv now. Anyway and as always appreciate the thoughts and prayers.
I'm off to Vienna for another conference......everyone have a nice finish to your weekend and upcoming week.
@Tulsaaggieson, agree the russian has seemingly fixed some of their tactical deficiencies. Their problem to being with was attacking on too many axises, which given the pre-war intelligence probably didn't seem that risky. Now they are concentrating on much smaller areas and severing GLOC's for the Ukrainian Military in very small AO's with specific targets. One of the things that will hamper them is their conscripts just have 1-year terms, so essentially every 6-months (since they have 2 call ups per year) they will lose numerous combat experienced soldiers to be replaced with new trainees. They still have very ridged command and control lines of communication and no real NCO corp to speak of. Not sure those can be fixed anytime soon. The Ukrainians are in it for the duration and I'm certain some of the things they are accomplishing just aren't talked about. But their combat experience will remain for years past the continued rotation of russian conscripts. Additionally, I bet it will get harder and harder to fill the quotas needed for the russians as more and more news gets out and draft dodging becomes rampit.
Your point about the airforce is right on......it was maybe 3 or 4 days ago that heard they were finally using the Bear bombers. I'm assuming they know there is no threat from surface to air or fighter jets present so can do use freely. Funny side story. A fraternity brother of mine who flew f-16's for nearly 30 years and I had lunch a few weeks back. I asked him if the Ukrainian government gave him Ukrainian citizenship and they had bought some number of F-16's would he go fly. He said "in a heartbeat." Something along the lines off the AVG in China, only being a citizen would theoretically give you GC protection if captured.
@Ponca Dan, you are correct about Modern War Institute site. I have been reading that site for awhile, because it covers numerous subjects of which you'll never hear a peep about from the US media. I also appreciate your "rabid anti neo-con" stance. Whatever my musing are about this subject, I don't want American forces in Ukraine fighting. Ultimately if you can't muster the local support for defending and reconquering your own country, then there is no reason to have Americans there dying. Incidentally feel the same way about Germany, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and a number of other countries.
I think the hitlerish comparison was more towards the mingling of his lack of military experience with his attempt to create perceived military genius from his decisions. Without a doubt would assume he has food tasters and a cadre of loyalists around him, but these are entirely different times from then to now. He does appear to have physical issues though....or could it be an act?
This will end when (if) the russian economy gets so bad that there is enough turmoil inside to force change. I wished the Ukrainians could drive them completely out of Ukrainian territory (including Crimea) but am under no illusions that if it happens at all it will take years. One thing I'm sure the russian isn't counting on is the partisan war that will be carried out against any russian instilled puppet leaders in newly conquered areas. This will be extremely difficult to control.
I appreciate both of your prayers for the gf and family. We talk nearly everyday and currently she can't tell me where she is. In fat they were all instructed to close all their social media accounts so the only way we chat now is via a website I met her on in the first place. Most of the men have been stripped from the police units and sent to the front. My guess is she is either in Kharkiv or someplace west of Sloviansk in the Donbas. Outlier would be Odessa. Her home in Bucha was completely destroyed and her parents who lived in Irpin are somewhere near Lviv now. Anyway and as always appreciate the thoughts and prayers.
I'm off to Vienna for another conference......everyone have a nice finish to your weekend and upcoming week.
You are thinking of the Flying Tigers. Highly successful unit in China that was used in the same way. No ties to the US beyond that is where the pilots and planes came from, and not an official government unit. Great idea to repeat the usage of, and we did the same sending pilots to England during WWII as well. There were just integrated into the British units. WWI saw this as well with the French. The US has a long history of mercenary pilots. These days the pilots would want to bring along their controllers and radar operators as well. The full unit idea like the flying Tigers would be the best way to handle that, that way they can integrate with all the things they are used to using in the air battle space. A single pilot in an F-16 would not change the picture much, but a full combat ready squadron with the right support elements would be a game changer.
Have fun in Vienna, you can sure pick some great locations for a conference.
