EC FOOTBALL
NORMAN — Brent Venables made an off-handed comment down in Dallas during SEC Media Days last month. Seemed to pass the smell test when Venables said it. Venables called the Southeastern Conference a “one-possession league.”
Made sense on the surface. The SEC is a deep and tough league. Lots of good teams. Really only one traditional pushover (sorry, Vanderbilt). No reason the SEC wouldn’t be a conference of close games.
Except I had this nagging thought. The teams at the top seemed to dominate. I don’t mean dominate year to year to year, though Alabama certainly has done that. I mean, they seem to dominate games.
I filed that under check-it-out-at-some-point. Then ESPN’s Bill Connelly produced some interesting figures. In the last six seasons, in conference play, 46.5% of Big 12 games have been decided by eight points or less. That’s the highest of any major conference. But only 33% of SEC games have been decided by eight points or less. That’s the lowest of any major conference.
Turns out, the SEC is not a one-possession league. The Sooners have left the one-possession league.
Here was Venables’ take. The SEC is “a one-possession league, as we’ve looked at it outside-in. You’ve got incredibly challenging venues. Every member of this conference, top to bottom, is committed to the excellence that this conference represents.
“And so as a football program, being in our first year, we are really looking forward to the challenge.”
Venables’ assertion seemed intuitive for good reason. The SEC, while dominated by Alabama and Georgia these last several seasons, is a league of similarly-resourced football programs.
Sure, Alabama’s got the jump on tradition, but in terms of resources — financial wherewithal, recruiting grounds, fan bases, etc. — Bama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Auburn, they’re all about the same. OU fits in with that crowd quite well. Well, except A&M. Texas A&M and Texas spend significantly more than the rest of the SEC schools.
Meanwhile, Texas and OU spent significantly more than the rest of the Big 12 members lo these many years.
Yet the Big 12 had much more parity, both in overall success and quality of individual-game competition.
Simply put, the SEC had more blowouts than did the Big 12. Many of them courtesy of Georgia and Alabama.
In the last six years, Georgia is 6-3 in close SEC games. Alabama is 11-5. Three of those games were against each other.
Texas over that span was 18-16 in close Big 12 games. The Sooners were 17-10. OU played three times as many close games as did Georgia; Texas played almost four times as many as Georgia.
And this isn’t just a Georgia/Alabama thing. LSU was 14-7 in SEC close games over those six years. Texas A&M was 10-12. Florida was 6-12.
The data is clear. The SEC is anything but a one-possession league, at least compared to the Big 12.
Even among the programs chasing Georgia and Alabama, close games were not the norm. I can’t explain it, but SEC games tend to get away from teams more easily than in the Big 12.
OSU, for example, is 16-12 in close Big 12 games over those six years. The Cowboys have dipped in and out of conference title contention, but the tight games have remained steady. Exactly half of OSU’s conference games (28 of 56) have been one-possession finishes.
That’s not life in the SEC. Not for the elite, not for those trying to be elite.
So a word of warning to the Sooners and Longhorns. The SEC is not won by eking out a litany of close wins. The SEC is won by swinging hammers and taking names.
The SEC is won by doing what Georgia and Alabama have done; beating up on all comers, including really good Deep South programs that have been held down by the Nick Saban and Kirby Smart nightmares.
If OU wants to be in the SEC what it was for much of its Big 12 run, if Texas wants to be in the SEC what it should have been in the Big 12, the pathway is clear.
It’s nice to win a bunch of white-knuckled games that keep you holding your breath, but the way to win big is to avoid white-knuckled games that keep you in suspense. In the SEC, champions dominate. They don’t sneak through the door; they kick it in.
Berry Tramel: Be forewarned, OU & Texas: SEC football is not a one-possession league
- Aug 20, 2024 Updated 5 hrs ago
Berry Tramel
Sports ColumnistNORMAN — Brent Venables made an off-handed comment down in Dallas during SEC Media Days last month. Seemed to pass the smell test when Venables said it. Venables called the Southeastern Conference a “one-possession league.”
Made sense on the surface. The SEC is a deep and tough league. Lots of good teams. Really only one traditional pushover (sorry, Vanderbilt). No reason the SEC wouldn’t be a conference of close games.
Except I had this nagging thought. The teams at the top seemed to dominate. I don’t mean dominate year to year to year, though Alabama certainly has done that. I mean, they seem to dominate games.
I filed that under check-it-out-at-some-point. Then ESPN’s Bill Connelly produced some interesting figures. In the last six seasons, in conference play, 46.5% of Big 12 games have been decided by eight points or less. That’s the highest of any major conference. But only 33% of SEC games have been decided by eight points or less. That’s the lowest of any major conference.
Turns out, the SEC is not a one-possession league. The Sooners have left the one-possession league.
Here was Venables’ take. The SEC is “a one-possession league, as we’ve looked at it outside-in. You’ve got incredibly challenging venues. Every member of this conference, top to bottom, is committed to the excellence that this conference represents.
“And so as a football program, being in our first year, we are really looking forward to the challenge.”
Venables’ assertion seemed intuitive for good reason. The SEC, while dominated by Alabama and Georgia these last several seasons, is a league of similarly-resourced football programs.
Sure, Alabama’s got the jump on tradition, but in terms of resources — financial wherewithal, recruiting grounds, fan bases, etc. — Bama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Auburn, they’re all about the same. OU fits in with that crowd quite well. Well, except A&M. Texas A&M and Texas spend significantly more than the rest of the SEC schools.
Meanwhile, Texas and OU spent significantly more than the rest of the Big 12 members lo these many years.
Yet the Big 12 had much more parity, both in overall success and quality of individual-game competition.
Simply put, the SEC had more blowouts than did the Big 12. Many of them courtesy of Georgia and Alabama.
In the last six years, Georgia is 6-3 in close SEC games. Alabama is 11-5. Three of those games were against each other.
Texas over that span was 18-16 in close Big 12 games. The Sooners were 17-10. OU played three times as many close games as did Georgia; Texas played almost four times as many as Georgia.
And this isn’t just a Georgia/Alabama thing. LSU was 14-7 in SEC close games over those six years. Texas A&M was 10-12. Florida was 6-12.
The data is clear. The SEC is anything but a one-possession league, at least compared to the Big 12.
Even among the programs chasing Georgia and Alabama, close games were not the norm. I can’t explain it, but SEC games tend to get away from teams more easily than in the Big 12.
OSU, for example, is 16-12 in close Big 12 games over those six years. The Cowboys have dipped in and out of conference title contention, but the tight games have remained steady. Exactly half of OSU’s conference games (28 of 56) have been one-possession finishes.
That’s not life in the SEC. Not for the elite, not for those trying to be elite.
So a word of warning to the Sooners and Longhorns. The SEC is not won by eking out a litany of close wins. The SEC is won by swinging hammers and taking names.
The SEC is won by doing what Georgia and Alabama have done; beating up on all comers, including really good Deep South programs that have been held down by the Nick Saban and Kirby Smart nightmares.
If OU wants to be in the SEC what it was for much of its Big 12 run, if Texas wants to be in the SEC what it should have been in the Big 12, the pathway is clear.
It’s nice to win a bunch of white-knuckled games that keep you holding your breath, but the way to win big is to avoid white-knuckled games that keep you in suspense. In the SEC, champions dominate. They don’t sneak through the door; they kick it in.
