Seems everyone will be posting polls like they are an accurate scoreboard form here until the election. Trafalgar was the only poll in the 2016 election that had Trump winning the election They indicated part of the reasons why they were more accurate was the following:
1. They discovered part of the population was shy Trump voters who would never admit to anyone they were voting for him. Did not want to be called names, wanted to stay out of the political hate, etc... Once they discovered this, they adjusted their questions in a manner to try to determine who these people were in their sampling. No one else did this.
2. They attempted for each sample to be reflective of the actual registered voters by category: Rep, Dem, and Independents. Keep in mind on a percentage basis within the population, Reps are Dems are basically equal, almost exactly. Most of your legacy polling in place leans liberal, and they typically sample more Dems than Reps, don't believe this? If they publish their polling data look it up. And also see if they are sampling registered voters or likely voters, big difference. Likely voters are your motivated voters. This allowed for a more accurate poll.
3. Trafalgar said up to 4% (if my memory from 8 years ago is correct) in some of their samples they could identify as shy Trump voters. They adjusted their polling for this, but I don't think it was a 1 for 1 adjustment. This also explains why Trump usually performs better than his polling, this has nothing to do with Trafalgar but a simple fact.
In this upcoming election I believe you still have shy Trump voters, probably not as many as in 2016 or 2020 that voted for him, but the off-set to that is how many "never Trumpers" will now rise to that category? It is happening.
This is why the Trafalgar poll is very interesting to me.
Trafalgar missed on some subsequent elections after 2016 pretty good, but how many other polls have blown it as well? My guess is that Trafalgar may have done some weighting on Rep shy voters that no longer applies when Trump is not in the actual election. But they are on to something when Trump is in the race, and they are the only poll that tries to even identify them.
I thought it was very enlightening and true that a political analyst said starting around 2004/2008, parties moved from persuasion (logical) campaigning to motivation campaigning (emotional). Most of us on this Board are locked tight who we are voting for and yet we still try to persuade those in the opposition party why our team has it right. Complete waste of time. If you own 50% of voting public, if you can get 1% more out to vote for you from your base because you think the end of the free world is at stake, you will be motivated to vote and you win the election. The VP selections for both candidates reflect a mostly motivation campaign.
The election will be determined by independents and undecided voters, who need persuasion. That is the challenge for both parties. I am biased but if Reps stay on point, they can win that hands down, but they are going to have to be skilled to get the message out. Thankfully, X allows free speech for this election. Thank you Elon. Liberal legacy media already distorting facts, things we lived thru and have seen with our own 2 eyes.
At the end of the day, I believe for independent and undecided voters, the election will come down to, 2 things:
1. The economy. It looks like things are going to get worse before it gets better. Credit card debt up, retirement funds down, less money in your pocket. Green is green and is not political. Trump with SOLID polling across the board on this area, every poll, far more than the sampling error.
2. October surprise - Wildcard and X factor. Who knows?
Lastly, in this country in many states it is basically legal to ballot harvest and have signatures on ballots with no idea who they are. Illegals voting. The fact is, there is not one single legit CPA firm in this country that would take on validating the results of the election for Prez or Congress because the internal control environment does not exist. How do you prove or disprove a vote is valid or invalid, with ZERO controls in place to authentic the vote prior to be counted? No reliable testing procedures could be developed to express an opinion. No one talks about this.
Republicans are STUPID to not ballot harvest just like Dems and get the votes, it is essentially legal in some states. And BTW - Beating them at their own game? The ONLY way they will ever want proper ID to be able to vote, FACT. Once the votes are counted? No one is changing them, and you can't prove or disprove who cast the ballot anyway. Just the way Dims want it. Need to play by their rules. Going to be fun to see if Kamala if she loses the election, will she certify the election. Hopefully a debate is on FOX and someone asks her this.
The polls are like recruiting rankings, basically mean nothing. I do know this: After the assassination attempt on Trump his supporters will walk over coals to vote for him this November. Let's hope the independents and undecideds vote with their pocket books.
1. They discovered part of the population was shy Trump voters who would never admit to anyone they were voting for him. Did not want to be called names, wanted to stay out of the political hate, etc... Once they discovered this, they adjusted their questions in a manner to try to determine who these people were in their sampling. No one else did this.
2. They attempted for each sample to be reflective of the actual registered voters by category: Rep, Dem, and Independents. Keep in mind on a percentage basis within the population, Reps are Dems are basically equal, almost exactly. Most of your legacy polling in place leans liberal, and they typically sample more Dems than Reps, don't believe this? If they publish their polling data look it up. And also see if they are sampling registered voters or likely voters, big difference. Likely voters are your motivated voters. This allowed for a more accurate poll.
3. Trafalgar said up to 4% (if my memory from 8 years ago is correct) in some of their samples they could identify as shy Trump voters. They adjusted their polling for this, but I don't think it was a 1 for 1 adjustment. This also explains why Trump usually performs better than his polling, this has nothing to do with Trafalgar but a simple fact.
In this upcoming election I believe you still have shy Trump voters, probably not as many as in 2016 or 2020 that voted for him, but the off-set to that is how many "never Trumpers" will now rise to that category? It is happening.
This is why the Trafalgar poll is very interesting to me.
Trafalgar missed on some subsequent elections after 2016 pretty good, but how many other polls have blown it as well? My guess is that Trafalgar may have done some weighting on Rep shy voters that no longer applies when Trump is not in the actual election. But they are on to something when Trump is in the race, and they are the only poll that tries to even identify them.
I thought it was very enlightening and true that a political analyst said starting around 2004/2008, parties moved from persuasion (logical) campaigning to motivation campaigning (emotional). Most of us on this Board are locked tight who we are voting for and yet we still try to persuade those in the opposition party why our team has it right. Complete waste of time. If you own 50% of voting public, if you can get 1% more out to vote for you from your base because you think the end of the free world is at stake, you will be motivated to vote and you win the election. The VP selections for both candidates reflect a mostly motivation campaign.
The election will be determined by independents and undecided voters, who need persuasion. That is the challenge for both parties. I am biased but if Reps stay on point, they can win that hands down, but they are going to have to be skilled to get the message out. Thankfully, X allows free speech for this election. Thank you Elon. Liberal legacy media already distorting facts, things we lived thru and have seen with our own 2 eyes.
At the end of the day, I believe for independent and undecided voters, the election will come down to, 2 things:
1. The economy. It looks like things are going to get worse before it gets better. Credit card debt up, retirement funds down, less money in your pocket. Green is green and is not political. Trump with SOLID polling across the board on this area, every poll, far more than the sampling error.
2. October surprise - Wildcard and X factor. Who knows?
Lastly, in this country in many states it is basically legal to ballot harvest and have signatures on ballots with no idea who they are. Illegals voting. The fact is, there is not one single legit CPA firm in this country that would take on validating the results of the election for Prez or Congress because the internal control environment does not exist. How do you prove or disprove a vote is valid or invalid, with ZERO controls in place to authentic the vote prior to be counted? No reliable testing procedures could be developed to express an opinion. No one talks about this.
Republicans are STUPID to not ballot harvest just like Dems and get the votes, it is essentially legal in some states. And BTW - Beating them at their own game? The ONLY way they will ever want proper ID to be able to vote, FACT. Once the votes are counted? No one is changing them, and you can't prove or disprove who cast the ballot anyway. Just the way Dims want it. Need to play by their rules. Going to be fun to see if Kamala if she loses the election, will she certify the election. Hopefully a debate is on FOX and someone asks her this.
The polls are like recruiting rankings, basically mean nothing. I do know this: After the assassination attempt on Trump his supporters will walk over coals to vote for him this November. Let's hope the independents and undecideds vote with their pocket books.
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