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Trade deficit narrows sharply; exports hit record high

I wonder if anyone actually thinks Trump's accusations against China's JV practices are false or exaggerated.

China has been extorting concessions out of companies for years now in addition to the items Trump has highlighted.

On one hand I'm glad to see that someone is willing to play hardball with them but I'm a bit concerned that the horse has long left the barn.
 
Dan, will more steel be made in America with these tariffs? Just asking production volume within our borders. What is your opinion?
 
Wow, you mean to tell me that when the dollar has declined in value by about 15% of the last year, making US made goods cheaper to buy in the international market, that exports rose? That's a rather obvious result in line with common economic trade theory/practice.

On the flip side, are you going to factor in that imported goods are costing Americans more $ to buy them, due to the weakened dollar, in any analysis of the health of the US economy?
 
Dan, will more steel be made in America with these tariffs? Just asking production volume within our borders. What is your opinion?
Yes, there will be a slight uptick in American steel production along with a corresponding uptick in jobs available. The number of the employed will be minor, however, as the primary reason for past job losses has not been foreign competition, but rather automation. But you are correct: there will be increased domestic steel production and employment.

That will be offset by higher prices for consumers who buy products that have steel components, and further offset by job losses in industries who will face tariffs by foreign countries on their products. China, for example, has announced it will no longer purchase American soybeans. They have been purchasing several billion dollars worth of soybeans from American farmers. So now soybean farmers will be hit with a double whammy. First they face higher prices for implements they need to grow soybeans because of Trump’s interference. Second their access to the Chinese market will be cut off. Soybeans are just one example of the detrimental effects of Trump ‘s actions.

So, what you see are increased production and jobs for American steel. What is not seen are the counterproductive results of higher prices and job losses in other industries.

It is a terrifying prospect that Trump may start a world wide trade war in the sincere belief that it is a war that has winners and losers. In a trade war everyone is a loser. Keep your fingers crossed that wiser heads prevail.
 
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Is there a point to be made that something as important as steel production can be an exception to this rule in case a real war breaks out? If we can get our hands on cheap Chinese steal and lots of it, we go that route and then we have a fuss with a major global power, what happens? Steel isn’t toys or wine, it’s the backbone of construction. Are we paying more to be more prepared in a crisis?

I don’t know the numbers. How much do we produce now, versus how much would we produce in ten years if we continue to let American steel go unprotected?
 
Wow, you mean to tell me that when the dollar has declined in value by about 15% of the last year, making US made goods cheaper to buy in the international market, that exports rose? That's a rather obvious result in line with common economic trade theory/practice.

On the flip side, are you going to factor in that imported goods are costing Americans more $ to buy them, due to the weakened dollar, in any analysis of the health of the US economy?
The dollar is still strong.
 
Is there a point to be made that something as important as steel production can be an exception to this rule in case a real war breaks out? If we can get our hands on cheap Chinese steal and lots of it, we go that route and then we have a fuss with a major global power, what happens? Steel isn’t toys or wine, it’s the backbone of construction. Are we paying more to be more prepared in a crisis?

I don’t know the numbers. How much do we produce now, versus how much would we produce in ten years if we continue to let American steel go unprotected?
I don't now those numbers either. And I won't google it to try to pretend I know more than I do.
I do know you are echoing the neocon argument on why steel is different because of war, etc. When Trump imposed his tariffs on steel he used the "national security" reason despite virtually everyone, even those in the Defense Department, saying American defense is not in jeopardy. But it was the only way Trump could bypass the congress (read: the American people) and act like a king/dictator to impose his will. Trump has shown his true self, and his true self is decidedly anti-free market. Some of his economic policies and stated desires come straight from the economic fascist playbook. That should sound alarm bells, but it does not seem to, Trump fanatics are going to be pro-Trump no matter what.

Free markets are the cornerstone of international peace. When countries become economically dependent on each other they lose all incentive to go to war with each other. The costs prove to be too high. If Trump and his neocon buddies were really interested in international peace they would be opening up our markets to ,any and every business that wants to sell their products to us. Instead they are assuring us that trade wars are good and winnable. There are no winners in trade wars.
 
peace would be great, but we both know that opening markets doesn’t guarantee that. It seems like we would be better served to have our core building and food staples made here. We have achieved the unthinkable being an oil exporter which is a huge component of being prepared for anything. The argument could be made that we got there on the backs of subsidies and tax breaks that are supposedly immoral and corporate welfare.

We obviously subsidize agriculture, but do we do it to be able to feed ourselves in an emergency or because corporate farming takes advantage of safety nets put in place for the almost extinct family farmer.

If it could be laid out as a plan for steel, food, fuel and water distribution to be put in reserve and purchased by our federal government under the category of prepping I would be for it. To keep those things producing is important for a country like ours with the means to be prepared.

A study of European trade versus emergency production during wwii would be relevant.
 
When Trump imposed his tariffs on steel he used the "national security" reason despite virtually everyone, even those in the Defense Department, saying American defense is not in jeopardy.

Would we be in jeopardy in a 1 year war with China? Five years?
 
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peace would be great, but we both know that opening markets doesn’t guarantee that. It seems like we would be better served to have our core building and food staples made here. We have achieved the unthinkable being an oil exporter which is a huge component of being prepared for anything. The argument could be made that we got there on the backs of subsidies and tax breaks that are supposedly immoral and corporate welfare.

We obviously subsidize agriculture, but do we do it to be able to feed ourselves in an emergency or because corporate farming takes advantage of safety nets put in place for the almost extinct family farmer.

If it could be laid out as a plan for steel, food, fuel and water distribution to be put in reserve and purchased by our federal government under the category of prepping I would be for it. To keep those things producing is important for a country like ours with the means to be prepared.

A study of European trade versus emergency production during wwii would be relevant.
Such a study would be interesting, but not relevant. The world today is far more intermingled economically than it was then. Peace actually has a chance if that intermingling can continue.
 
Is there a point to be made that something as important as steel production can be an exception to this rule in case a real war breaks out? If we can get our hands on cheap Chinese steal and lots of it, we go that route and then we have a fuss with a major global power, what happens? Steel isn’t toys or wine, it’s the backbone of construction. Are we paying more to be more prepared in a crisis?

I don’t know the numbers. How much do we produce now, versus how much would we produce in ten years if we continue to let American steel go unprotected?
Concrete is also a major component of construction. Doesn't a large amount of it come from China and other foreign producers?
 
Ladies and gentlemen I regret to inform you that HSH is making a good point about steel.

BJs.gif
 
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Such a study would be interesting, but not relevant. The world today is far more intermingled economically than it was then. Peace actually has a chance if that intermingling can continue.

I disagree. Any study of global conflict would be relevant when thinking about a future global conflict.
 
Concrete is also a major component of construction. Doesn't a large amount of it come from China and other foreign producers?
China is the largest producer of cement, the critical component, by far. But, their exports peaked 30 years ago. They just use more (a lot more) than everyone else.
 
The cement industry in the United Statesproduced 82.8 million tonnes (81,500,000 long tons; 91,300,000 short tons) of cement in 2015, worth US$9.8 billion, and was used to manufacture concrete worth about US$50 billion. The US was the world's third-largest producer of cement, after China and India. The US cement industry includes 99 cement mills in 34 states, plus two plants in Puerto Rico. The industry directly employed 10,000 workers in 2015. Ten percent of the cement used in the United States in 2015 was imported.[1]
 
I remember when we were told that the 1980s wanted their foreign policy back because Russia wasn't a significant geopolitical foe. Now they are rampaging our elections. Previous sleeping on the whatifs in regards to China already has our country behind the curve.
 
Wow, you mean to tell me that when the dollar has declined in value by about 15% of the last year, making US made goods cheaper to buy in the international market, that exports rose? That's a rather obvious result in line with common economic trade theory/practice.

On the flip side, are you going to factor in that imported goods are costing Americans more $ to buy them, due to the weakened dollar, in any analysis of the health of the US economy?
vs. which currency exactly? Over the TTM US$ change in value vs. the following currencies is:

Euro: Up 0.47%
GBP: Down 2.49% (likely due mostly to easing of fears about the effect of BREXIT)

Yen: Down 2.49%

Chinese Yuan: Down 5.88%
 
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