The Weather kerfufful....

[windriverrange]

https://apnews.com/e7a4480d33ce4040b59bd48d4b832c05

"NOAA scientist: agency likely broke science integrity rules." Are these people for freakin real? I've watched this in utter amusement over the last week plus. First if ever there was an example of beating a dead horse this was it. Second, early on, they didn't predict that the hurricane would ever be a cat 5, it was. Early on they didn't predict the hurricane would hit NC or Canada, it did and lastly unless you live in the effected or potentially effected area who gives a shit.

The most ironic part is that they are worrying "NOAA" is broke "science integrity rules" are you quadruple freakin kidding me....like relying on BS temp adjustments to fit the MMGW narrative and talking about it every chance they get.

The spaghetti models were all over the place (https://heavy.com/news/2019/08/dorian-spaghetti-models/) and yes some had the hurricane potentially hitting Alabama, some had the hurricane crossing over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting Florida again and so on. The cones are even worse since they are so wide at the final forecast mark, hell I bet most people on this board with a rudimentary understanding of upper level winds and meteorology could draw a cone that is 300 or 400 miles wide at final current forecast mark. Dam these people are a bunch of dart throwers.....

From NOAA Climate.gov "Science and Information for a climate-smart nation" https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...risk-rapidly-intensifying-hurricanes-along-us is this not politicization?

Am sure NOAA is chalked full of libs that hate Trump and will make the Himalayas out of a mole hill. Pity they weren't as objective previously and continue to mold every argument there is into a see we told you MMGW is a fact!

All that said, totally unforced venture by Trump.....wished he would have passed on this one. He should have taken a sharpie and written Alabama on both cheeks last night at the rally, just to piss all these idiots off again.

 

[Syskatine]

BWWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA he was incompetent, 4 days behind when bloviating like he knew what was going on and then was obsessed for a week, doctoring maps, lying, getting people to lie.... He's reminded the country of what a moron he is.

 

[jkosu]

BWWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA he was incompetent, 4 days behind when bloviating like he knew what was going on and then was obsessed for a week, doctoring maps, lying, getting people to lie.... He's reminded the country of what a moron he is.

missing: the left bloviating about it for weeks, reminding the country that they can take something dumb and run with it until they become even dumber than the original incident.

 

[2012Bearcat]

In defense of the NOAA's hurricane forecasting, with current technology and understanding, it's damn near impossible to accurately predict what a hurricane will do or where it's path will end up. With that said it works the same way with global warming, these idiots have no idea.

 

[imprimis]

In defense of the NOAA's hurricane forecasting, with current technology and understanding, it's damn near impossible to accurately predict what a hurricane will do or where it's path will end up. With that said it works the same way with global warming, these idiots have no idea.

Freeman Dyson, physicist who replaced Einstein at Princeton said, "computers are great at telling us what happened but worthless at predicting what will happen" (paraphrased). We see evidence of this often.

 

[Syskatine]

Freeman Dyson, physicist who replaced Einstein at Princeton said, "computers are great at telling us what happened but worthless at predicting what will happen" (paraphrased). We see evidence of this often.

Freeman Dyson needs to watch the weather. They nailed the track of the hurricane, daily tell us pretty close to what temperatures and winds will be, tell us if storms are coming... those "spaghetti models" were all computerized predictions and they were very accurate. The only area where they are still unreliable is predicting snowfall, imo. But they get the preceipitation right, they just don't get the snow vs. rain thing or snow volumes right. They do a pretty good job with ice risk, though.

 

[2012Bearcat]

Freeman Dyson needs to watch the weather. They nailed the track of the hurricane, daily tell us pretty close to what temperatures and winds will be, tell us if storms are coming... those "spaghetti models" were all computerized predictions and they were very accurate. The only area where they are still unreliable is predicting snowfall, imo. But they get the preceipitation right, they just don't get the snow vs. rain thing or snow volumes right. They do a pretty good job with ice risk, though.

Hell I can look out the window and tell you what the weather is.

 

[blbronco]

https://apnews.com/e7a4480d33ce4040b59bd48d4b832c05

"NOAA scientist: agency likely broke science integrity rules." Are these people for freakin real? I've watched this in utter amusement over the last week plus. First if ever there was an example of beating a dead horse this was it. Second, early on, they didn't predict that the hurricane would ever be a cat 5, it was. Early on they didn't predict the hurricane would hit NC or Canada, it did and lastly unless you live in the effected or potentially effected area who gives a shit.

The most ironic part is that they are worrying "NOAA" is broke "science integrity rules" are you quadruple freakin kidding me....like relying on BS temp adjustments to fit the MMGW narrative and talking about it every chance they get.

The spaghetti models were all over the place (https://heavy.com/news/2019/08/dorian-spaghetti-models/) and yes some had the hurricane potentially hitting Alabama, some had the hurricane crossing over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting Florida again and so on. The cones are even worse since they are so wide at the final forecast mark, hell I bet most people on this board with a rudimentary understanding of upper level winds and meteorology could draw a cone that is 300 or 400 miles wide at final current forecast mark. Dam these people are a bunch of dart throwers.....

From NOAA Climate.gov "Science and Information for a climate-smart nation" https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...risk-rapidly-intensifying-hurricanes-along-us is this not politicization?

Am sure NOAA is chalked full of libs that hate Trump and will make the Himalayas out of a mole hill. Pity they weren't as objective previously and continue to mold every argument there is into a see we told you MMGW is a fact!

All that said, totally unforced venture by Trump.....wished he would have passed on this one. He should have taken a sharpie and written Alabama on both cheeks last night at the rally, just to piss all these idiots off again.

So I am neither on the right or the left (at least as this board considers both sides), and am definitely a "science first" type. Defending Trump on this one is a bad move. He screwed up, then doubled down on it. I do not care if you like the global warming predictions or not, it does not justify this issue. NOAA did a pretty damned fantastic job of predicting Dorian's track as data was becoming available. Using spaghetti models to say that it "could" have hit Alabama is ridiculous. Spaghetti models, when they were first being rolled out will have a hurricane hitting anywhere from South America to Greenland (future USA north?). Even with that, early on, there was reliable data showing Dorian taking a northern turn, which did happen.

Defend Trump on a lot of things, and I think you are fair to do so. Defending him here, is nothing more than digging your heels in the sand. He screwed up. It happens. Move on.

 

[CBradSmith]

missing: the left bloviating about it for weeks, reminding the country that they can take something dumb and run with it until they become even dumber than the original incident.

 

[windriverrange]

So I am neither on the right or the left (at least as this board considers both sides), and am definitely a "science first" type. Defending Trump on this one is a bad move. He screwed up, then doubled down on it. I do not care if you like the global warming predictions or not, it does not justify this issue. NOAA did a pretty damned fantastic job of predicting Dorian's track as data was becoming available. Using spaghetti models to say that it "could" have hit Alabama is ridiculous. Spaghetti models, when they were first being rolled out will have a hurricane hitting anywhere from South America to Greenland (future USA north?). Even with that, early on, there was reliable data showing Dorian taking a northern turn, which did happen.

Defend Trump on a lot of things, and I think you are fair to do so. Defending him here, is nothing more than digging your heels in the sand. He screwed up. It happens. Move on.

Blbronco, don't get me wrong here I'm not defending him either. Totally unforced and for the life of me can't imagine what was to be gained here (almost a Ron Burgundy moment actually). The two biggest problems I have is that conservatives always get hammered for being wrong on this stuff (Bush vs Blanco & Nagin) while the reality is rarely are any of these idiots right. Secondly, and more relevant to this case than most, no one got this right so for NOAA or anyone else to cry they breached some kind of ethical standard is as silly as Trump not admitting he just blew it. Total agreement though, Trump just needs to STFU sometimes and admit he hosed this up then move on.