The Texas Covid Crisis

[windriverrange]

https://cis.org/Bensman/Texas-Covid-Crisis
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Yep....makes a lot of sense especially combined with the oh so righteous BLM and defund police protests. Bundle the illegals up and ship their asses back across the border.

 

[blbronco]

There are a few issues in that. As far as reporting data for Texas cases, the case is identified by residence, not where they are diagnosed or hospitalized. There may be an added burden (I do not know the answer, but have not heard this as a problem in my area) on the hospitals, but I am not going to go by the author’s unnamed source as proof. I doubt the Mexicans are causing the same issue in Florida, which is experiencing the same trends. The commonality is that they are all in the southern US, which can have many factors (beaches, gatherings, etc) not related to a mexican invasion. The author seems to simply be pushing a “close the borders” agenda while trying to cram a narrative using COVID (like other, previous communicable diseases that has been discussed on this board before).

I don’t care as much about the closing the border agenda, but I think the author is reaching on COVID as a reason to ramp it up. I can also find more reliable reasons to increase border protection.

 

[blbronco]

https://cis.org/Bensman/Texas-Covid-Crisis
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Yep....makes a lot of sense especially combined with the oh so righteous BLM and defund police protests. Bundle the illegals up and ship their asses back across the border.

I forgot to add that I am curious as to the actual impact of the protests. It will be extremely difficult to prove, but I am curious. I think it would be notably higher than what could be proven.

 

[aix_xpert]

There are a few issues in that. As far as reporting data for Texas cases, the case is identified by residence, not where they are diagnosed or hospitalized. There may be an added burden (I do not know the answer, but have not heard this as a problem in my area) on the hospitals, but I am not going to go by the author’s unnamed source as proof. I doubt the Mexicans are causing the same issue in Florida, which is experiencing the same trends. The commonality is that they are all in the southern US, which can have many factors (beaches, gatherings, etc) not related to a mexican invasion. The author seems to simply be pushing a “close the borders” agenda while trying to cram a narrative using COVID (like other, previous communicable diseases that has been discussed on this board before).

I don’t care as much about the closing the border agenda, but I think the author is reaching on COVID as a reason to ramp it up. I can also find more reliable reasons to increase border protection.

I don't associate it to a Mexican invasion, but I do think there are cultural factors within the Latino community that make it more susceptible to exposure. For example, (as shown on the Nightly news last night), in Arizona many Latino communities live multiple generations within a single household. This is much less common in traditional American families.

 

[blbronco]

I don't associate it to a Mexican invasion, but I do think there are cultural factors within the Latino community that make it more susceptible to exposure. For example, (as shown on the Nightly news last night), in Arizona many Latino communities live multiple generations within a single household. This is much less common in traditional American families.

I am in absolute agreement on this.

 

[2012Bearcat]

I am in absolute agreement on this.

It's not so much an invasion as it is the normal back and forth across the border. Look at the numbers in the border towns and it's obvious.

 

[blbronco]

It's not so much an invasion as it is the normal back and forth across the border. Look at the numbers in the border towns and it's obvious.

the worst areas of Texas with COVID are not the border towns. Houston, Dallas, And Austin are the worst. Basically, follow the I-35 corridor, Houston area, Amarillo and Lubbock, and areas that had meat/poultry processing plants that had significant clusters are the worst areas. You can make a case for El Paso and Hidalgo counties being higher and on the border, but they are your only two with significant effects on the state totals.

 

[2012Bearcat]

the worst areas of Texas with COVID are not the border towns. Houston, Dallas, And Austin are the worst. Basically, follow the I-35 corridor, Houston area, Amarillo and Lubbock, and areas that had meat/poultry processing plants that had significant clusters are the worst areas. You can make a case for El Paso and Hidalgo counties being higher and on the border, but they are your only two with significant effects on the state totals.

What you're not taking into account is the number of people crossing the border that are headed back and forth between Houston, Austin and the DFW area. There is a huge problem with Covid along the border and as usual Mexico is not of any help.
You might ask how I know this without being able to point to articles or government reports. I happen to know numerous work crews that have recently been put in quarantine because they have come down sick and tested positive. It all started when several of them went home to visit and came back with the virus. One of my guys just got back from Mexico last week and said it was the biggest mess he has ever seen and that's saying something.

 

[100TonsofOrangeFury]

the worst areas of Texas with COVID are not the border towns. Houston, Dallas, And Austin are the worst. Basically, follow the I-35 corridor, Houston area, Amarillo and Lubbock, and areas that had meat/poultry processing plants that had significant clusters are the worst areas. You can make a case for El Paso and Hidalgo counties being higher and on the border, but they are your only two with significant effects on the state totals.

On a per capita basis, your contentions are highly misleading.

The DFW media is having a convulsion of 1000 cases a day in a county of 2.6 million people. And as of a month ago, the Hispanic community was 5 times more likely to test positive than Blacks or Asians, and about 12 times more likely than Whites. Which certainly lends some credibility to the article's contention.

 

[blbronco]

Mexico is having a major issue that is not producing reliable information. I agree with that. What you are saying, I do not doubt, but I do have figures that show that to not be what is causing the biggest issues in Texas. All 16 of the bordering counties combined ads up to about 9% of the Texas cases, while the top four (covering Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and Ft Worth) cover 45% of the cases. Closing the border does not mitigate what is happening. Though I do ask, are you promoting shutting legal passage in and out of Mexico or just illegal? Not to try to do a “gotcha” so I will ask in advance. Are those Mexicans on your crews legal or illegal?

even with that asked, yes, we know there are travel-associated cases.

 

[blbronco]

On a per capita basis, your contentions are highly misleading.

The DFW media is having a convulsion of 1000 cases a day in a county of 2.6 million people. And as of a month ago, the Hispanic community was 5 times more likely to test positive than Blacks or Asians, and about 12 times more likely than Whites. Which certainly lends some credibility to the article's contention.

Does it? How? On a statewide basis, white people are 25.2% of the cases while hispanics are 38.8%. Yes, hispanic people are the highest rates, and aix fully addressed the “why” to that. I fail to see how that immediately addresses the border closing argument. Hispanic people account for nearly 40% of the state population. For the record, those that identify as non-hispanic-white are only 41.2% of the population according to census data.

 

[aix_xpert]

Mexico is having a major issue that is not producing reliable information. I agree with that. What you are saying, I do not doubt, but I do have figures that show that to not be what is causing the biggest issues in Texas. All 16 of the bordering counties combined ads up to about 9% of the Texas cases, while the top four (covering Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and Ft Worth) cover 45% of the cases. Closing the border does not mitigate what is happening. Though I do ask, are you promoting shutting legal passage in and out of Mexico or just illegal? Not to try to do a “gotcha” so I will ask in advance. Are those Mexicans on your crews legal or illegal?

even with that asked, yes, we know there are travel-associated cases.

BLB, if 9% of the cases are on the border, doesn't that support the contention that border travel is an issue. 9% of Texas' population isn't along the border. DFW, SA, and Houston areas make up significantly more than 45% of the states population, and thus the 45% mark would indicate a statistically significant per capita infection density.

 

[blbronco]

BLB, if 9% of the cases are on the border, doesn't that support the contention that border travel is an issue. 9% of Texas' population isn't along the border. DFW, SA, and Houston areas make up significantly more than 45% of the states population, and thus the 45% mark would indicate a statistically significant per capita infection density.

It only does so if you believe all or the majority of the cases to be related to border crossing. I would have to do a lot of checking to work on per capita, but you would have to make numerous presumptions that just cannot be supported at the moment. Also, Houston has a footprint well beyond just Harrison county as does Dallas. I prefer to be more accurate when putting out figures, but will say that greater than 70% of the cases are along I35 and Houston associated counties.

 

[aix_xpert]

It only does so if you believe all or the majority of the cases to be related to border crossing. I would have to do a lot of checking to work on per capita, but you would have to make numerous presumptions that just cannot be supported at the moment. Also, Houston has a footprint well beyond just Harrison county as does Dallas. I prefer to be more accurate when putting out figures, but will say that greater than 70% of the cases are along I35 and Houston associated counties.

I don't disagree and would never make the statement 'all' as I don't think there is any one single behavior or action that is driving the rise in cases and infection rates. I don't even believe that its all generated due to the protests/riots. However, I do believe that the protests being cheered and accepted by both the media and many mayors and governors has completely neutered all of the more recent government and healthcare messaging regarding social distancing, masks, etc.

 

[blbronco]

I don't disagree and would never make the statement 'all' as I don't think there is any one single behavior or action that is driving the rise in cases and infection rates. I don't even believe that its all generated due to the protests/riots. However, I do believe that the protests being cheered and accepted by both the media and many mayors and governors has completely neutered all of the more recent government and healthcare messaging regarding social distancing, masks, etc.

You will get no argument from me on this. The overall public health messaging has pissed me off to no end. In part due to politics, there is such a major decision paralysis and mixing of messages that I get people being skeptical.

 

[2012Bearcat]

Mexico is having a major issue that is not producing reliable information. I agree with that. What you are saying, I do not doubt, but I do have figures that show that to not be what is causing the biggest issues in Texas. All 16 of the bordering counties combined ads up to about 9% of the Texas cases, while the top four (covering Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and Ft Worth) cover 45% of the cases. Closing the border does not mitigate what is happening. Though I do ask, are you promoting shutting legal passage in and out of Mexico or just illegal? Not to try to do a “gotcha” so I will ask in advance. Are those Mexicans on your crews legal or illegal?

even with that asked, yes, we know there are travel-associated cases.

I don't want the border closed but there is a problem that needs to be addressed down there.
As to the legal status of my guys, yes they are all legal, have Social Security numbers and receive the proper tax forms every year. Now some of the guys that work for them??????????.
They do not work for me, they do work for me when I need something done that I can not or do not want to do on our rental properties.

 

[blbronco]

I don't want the border closed but there is a problem that needs to be addressed down there.
As to the legal status of my guys, yes they are all legal, have Social Security numbers and receive the proper tax forms every year. Now some of the guys that work for them??????????.
They do not work for me, they do work for me when I need something done that I can not or do not want to do on our rental properties.

My question was mostly facetious, due to the goal of the OP link.

There are two counties on the border that are the main problems. I have not looked as to what is going on with them, but most of the bordering counties have very few cases.

 

[100TonsofOrangeFury]

My question was mostly facetious, due to the goal of the OP link.

There are two counties on the border that are the main problems. I have not looked as to what is going on with them, but most of the bordering counties have very few cases.

All of your sleuthing merely points to the issue of number of cases being correlated to population density. Counties with few cases have few people, counties like Travis, Dallas, Tarrant, and Harris have 90+% of the state's population so of course that's where the cases are.

I'll bet they also have the most traffic fatalities.

There's very likely the strongest correlation between zip codes with high Hispanic populations and covid, anywhere you look in Texas.

 

[blbronco]

All of your sleuthing merely points to the issue of number of cases being correlated to population density. Counties with few cases have few people, counties like Travis, Dallas, Tarrant, and Harris have 90+% of the state's population so of course that's where the cases are.

I'll bet they also have the most traffic fatalities.

There's very likely the strongest correlation between zip codes with high Hispanic populations and covid, anywhere you look in Texas.

Correct. But it also does not lead to border access being a cause, either, which was the point of the link in the OP.