We have finally arrived at the critical swing games that will determine the ceiling for this season and whether or not OSU can fulfill the goal of making the Big 12 championship game. By taking care of business before the bye week, the Cowboys have put themselves in the position that they wanted to be in before fall camp began. That is no small feat. Losing Trace Ford and Collin Clay before the season was a gut punch to the defense and the ability to generate consistent pressure from the down linemen. Both were going to have major roles. To overcome those losses in addition to Trey Sterling on the backend and be as productive and dominant as they have been as a defense is remarkable. The linebackers have been fantastic, the defensive line has flashed its depth, and Jason Taylor has truly stepped up his play. If the Cowboys can find a way to continue to get pressure on the quarterback without sacrificing run fits, they can limit the vertical exposure of the zero man packages and keep attacking opposing offenses. Because the injury bug devastated the receiver corps, the Cowboys had to re-invent themselves weekly, and the result was a much needed offensive identity. With offensive skill players getting healthy, and the offensive line finding some continuity, the stage is set for this offense to be much more productive in the second half of the season. The burden will be on Spencer Sanders to protect the ball, move the chains, and hit a handful of chunk plays throughout the games. The ceiling is tied to his play.
The back to back road games against Texas and Iowa State is the toughest stretch of the season's schedule, and we talked about it as such before the season began. Although an argument can be made for Baylor and Oklahoma to be better teams, the truth is that Texas and Iowa State are best positioned in a head to head matchup against this Cowboy team. The Cowboys can win these games, but they should be underdogs in both. Sweep these games and an appearance in the Big 12 championship game becomes likely. Split them, and the pressure builds on the Bedlam game with some margin. Get swept and the Cowboys no longer control their destiny, needing quite a bit of help. Enough of that, let's look more closely at this game.
Forget about the Red River Rivalry hangover. That will have no bearing on this game. Steve Sarkisian has won over the lockerroom in a way that Tom Herman never did. Texas knows that they still control their own destiny to get to a re-match with Oklahoma. They will come out ready to play, with every intention of starting fast on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they will sell out to stop the run, force Oklahoma State into passing down & distance situations, and then do everything they can to force Spencer Sanders to throw the ball into coverage and keep him from running to move the chains. Texas must win the day with their linebacker play for their defense to be successful. Offensively, they will fee Bijan Robinson, but Coach Sark's identity is deeply rooted in attacking defensive vulnerabilities. Look for the Longhorns to attack the Cowboy secondary deep down the field, and try to make the Cowboys pay for the man coverage. The Longhorns have too much talent not to hit some vertical shots. The key for the Cowboys is to limit those, but to not abandon the game plan in doing so.
Without question the most interesting matchup is the Texas offense versus the Oklahoma State defense. Neither unit needs an introduction or even much discussion in this thread. By virtue of you being on this board, reading this post, you know what each are. You know the key players. So let's look at two things: 1) Particular concepts that will play a critical role in the outcome & 2) a specific match-up that could provide indications of the bigger picture on a whole.
Like many top college offense's, Texas has built their success on RPOs. Their first inclination is to run the ball in the RPOs until the defense takes it away, and then going to the tagged pass options off the run actions. They do have some play action and drop back elements in their game as well. The RPO run concepts are integrated into a mix of outside zone, inside zone, and some power. Texas likes to run a lot of single side pass routes on the RPOs, leaving backside receivers to stay in and block. They will identify an outside or overhang defender that they want to put into conflict and make a simple read for the QB to give it or hit 1 predetermined route. Whether on the glance or speed out concepts, the Cowboys could blow up the timing with press coverage and pressure inside. That's when Texas will counter with play action to get the Cowboy DBs to bite on the play action or double move and get vertical. Xavier Worthy is definitely their primary vertical threat and an alpha receiver. Texas will target him against man coverage and hope he wins more 1 v 1 battles than he loses. The Cowboys will take their chances with Thompson's accuracy under pressure.
A big part of their passing game comes off of defensive adjustment's to stop the run. If team's play with a single high safety or no safety in the middle, their offense will look to hit those deep post/cross country routes down the field where the quarterback can throw the ball to space and the receiver can run under it. Texas will run a pass game concept that looks like the RPO, but is a fake. Basically trying to suck up the secondary on the short RPO route, selling the run fake and throwing deep across the middle or on a SLUGO down the side. With the Cowboys likely featuring man to man coverage, expect to see Texas feature a lot of crossing routes underneath 2 verticals or post routes. Those crossing routes get thrown when the receivers cross the opposite hash, so they take more time to develop. This is where pressure can really disrupt the passing game and why Texas struggled in the second half against Oklahoma. Those slower developing routes require more time and pressure short circuits things. If Texas loses on first down and has to be in obvious passing situations, their offensive efficiency drops. If they stay on schedule, they are among the most efficient offenses in the country.
Here is how this sets up for the Cowboys: they need to be effective on the defensive line, getting penetration, yet staying in gaps. They need to spill plays outside and rally to the ball. They can not allow Bijan Robinson to stick his foot in the ground and get his shoulders turned squarely to the line of scrimmage. He is one of the best backs in the country when he gets going downhill as his combination of strength and balance is elite. He is the type of runner that can glance off of would be tacklers and power through arm tackles. Against him, defenses find much more success when he either runs wide or has to start and stop in the backfield. Wrapping up and active pursuit is important. Roschon Johnson is their gadget player. He is explosive and versatile. Whether it is reverses, direct snaps, wheel routes, etc., the Longhorns will dial up special plays to get him the ball in critical situations. The good news for Cowboy fans is that Rodriguez and Harper have proven to be very sound tacklers. They will be busy as will Jason Taylor. The one passing concept that Texas has shown, but not utilized much to this point involve vertical routes to the backs out of the backfield in the drop back game. Robinson and Johnson catching the ball on the run in the secondary could be a real problem
Obviously QB play is critical when you get to games with quality competition. Casey Thompson has to play well for Texas to win. He is similar to Spencer Sanders, and is a definite dual threat, but Texas has not exposed him to a lot of hits. Given that his hand got banged up last week, I think he and the staff will be very selective on when and how often he carries the ball.
The critical matchup is the Texas offensive line versus the Cowboy defensive front in both the run game and pass protection. Texas struggled with the quickness of the Arkansas front and then had all kinds of protection issues on the offensive line against Oklahoma in the second half. Their inability to protect Casey Thompson was the primary reason their offense could not sustain drives. Andrej Karic was brutally bad at RT. He was the one inserted into the lineup when Denzel Okafor got hurt. Derek Kerstetter slid over to Okafor's spot. That didn't work, so Kerstetter is back at RT. He is solid in pass protection, and concern for the Cowboy pass rush is what dictated that change. The problem for Texas is that LT Christian Jones has been sporadic in his pass pro as well, creating a potential issue on the left side of the line as he has to work with Tope Imade to shut out the Cowboy stunt and blitz packages. The Cowboys should be able to get pressure on the quarterback with their third down package. Texas has the players to hit some big plays in those situations, but the Cowboys should be successful in getting off the field. The key is going to be winning on first downs against the run game without getting beat over the top.
The back to back road games against Texas and Iowa State is the toughest stretch of the season's schedule, and we talked about it as such before the season began. Although an argument can be made for Baylor and Oklahoma to be better teams, the truth is that Texas and Iowa State are best positioned in a head to head matchup against this Cowboy team. The Cowboys can win these games, but they should be underdogs in both. Sweep these games and an appearance in the Big 12 championship game becomes likely. Split them, and the pressure builds on the Bedlam game with some margin. Get swept and the Cowboys no longer control their destiny, needing quite a bit of help. Enough of that, let's look more closely at this game.
Forget about the Red River Rivalry hangover. That will have no bearing on this game. Steve Sarkisian has won over the lockerroom in a way that Tom Herman never did. Texas knows that they still control their own destiny to get to a re-match with Oklahoma. They will come out ready to play, with every intention of starting fast on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they will sell out to stop the run, force Oklahoma State into passing down & distance situations, and then do everything they can to force Spencer Sanders to throw the ball into coverage and keep him from running to move the chains. Texas must win the day with their linebacker play for their defense to be successful. Offensively, they will fee Bijan Robinson, but Coach Sark's identity is deeply rooted in attacking defensive vulnerabilities. Look for the Longhorns to attack the Cowboy secondary deep down the field, and try to make the Cowboys pay for the man coverage. The Longhorns have too much talent not to hit some vertical shots. The key for the Cowboys is to limit those, but to not abandon the game plan in doing so.
Without question the most interesting matchup is the Texas offense versus the Oklahoma State defense. Neither unit needs an introduction or even much discussion in this thread. By virtue of you being on this board, reading this post, you know what each are. You know the key players. So let's look at two things: 1) Particular concepts that will play a critical role in the outcome & 2) a specific match-up that could provide indications of the bigger picture on a whole.
Like many top college offense's, Texas has built their success on RPOs. Their first inclination is to run the ball in the RPOs until the defense takes it away, and then going to the tagged pass options off the run actions. They do have some play action and drop back elements in their game as well. The RPO run concepts are integrated into a mix of outside zone, inside zone, and some power. Texas likes to run a lot of single side pass routes on the RPOs, leaving backside receivers to stay in and block. They will identify an outside or overhang defender that they want to put into conflict and make a simple read for the QB to give it or hit 1 predetermined route. Whether on the glance or speed out concepts, the Cowboys could blow up the timing with press coverage and pressure inside. That's when Texas will counter with play action to get the Cowboy DBs to bite on the play action or double move and get vertical. Xavier Worthy is definitely their primary vertical threat and an alpha receiver. Texas will target him against man coverage and hope he wins more 1 v 1 battles than he loses. The Cowboys will take their chances with Thompson's accuracy under pressure.
A big part of their passing game comes off of defensive adjustment's to stop the run. If team's play with a single high safety or no safety in the middle, their offense will look to hit those deep post/cross country routes down the field where the quarterback can throw the ball to space and the receiver can run under it. Texas will run a pass game concept that looks like the RPO, but is a fake. Basically trying to suck up the secondary on the short RPO route, selling the run fake and throwing deep across the middle or on a SLUGO down the side. With the Cowboys likely featuring man to man coverage, expect to see Texas feature a lot of crossing routes underneath 2 verticals or post routes. Those crossing routes get thrown when the receivers cross the opposite hash, so they take more time to develop. This is where pressure can really disrupt the passing game and why Texas struggled in the second half against Oklahoma. Those slower developing routes require more time and pressure short circuits things. If Texas loses on first down and has to be in obvious passing situations, their offensive efficiency drops. If they stay on schedule, they are among the most efficient offenses in the country.
Here is how this sets up for the Cowboys: they need to be effective on the defensive line, getting penetration, yet staying in gaps. They need to spill plays outside and rally to the ball. They can not allow Bijan Robinson to stick his foot in the ground and get his shoulders turned squarely to the line of scrimmage. He is one of the best backs in the country when he gets going downhill as his combination of strength and balance is elite. He is the type of runner that can glance off of would be tacklers and power through arm tackles. Against him, defenses find much more success when he either runs wide or has to start and stop in the backfield. Wrapping up and active pursuit is important. Roschon Johnson is their gadget player. He is explosive and versatile. Whether it is reverses, direct snaps, wheel routes, etc., the Longhorns will dial up special plays to get him the ball in critical situations. The good news for Cowboy fans is that Rodriguez and Harper have proven to be very sound tacklers. They will be busy as will Jason Taylor. The one passing concept that Texas has shown, but not utilized much to this point involve vertical routes to the backs out of the backfield in the drop back game. Robinson and Johnson catching the ball on the run in the secondary could be a real problem
Obviously QB play is critical when you get to games with quality competition. Casey Thompson has to play well for Texas to win. He is similar to Spencer Sanders, and is a definite dual threat, but Texas has not exposed him to a lot of hits. Given that his hand got banged up last week, I think he and the staff will be very selective on when and how often he carries the ball.
The critical matchup is the Texas offensive line versus the Cowboy defensive front in both the run game and pass protection. Texas struggled with the quickness of the Arkansas front and then had all kinds of protection issues on the offensive line against Oklahoma in the second half. Their inability to protect Casey Thompson was the primary reason their offense could not sustain drives. Andrej Karic was brutally bad at RT. He was the one inserted into the lineup when Denzel Okafor got hurt. Derek Kerstetter slid over to Okafor's spot. That didn't work, so Kerstetter is back at RT. He is solid in pass protection, and concern for the Cowboy pass rush is what dictated that change. The problem for Texas is that LT Christian Jones has been sporadic in his pass pro as well, creating a potential issue on the left side of the line as he has to work with Tope Imade to shut out the Cowboy stunt and blitz packages. The Cowboys should be able to get pressure on the quarterback with their third down package. Texas has the players to hit some big plays in those situations, but the Cowboys should be successful in getting off the field. The key is going to be winning on first downs against the run game without getting beat over the top.
