We escaped Lubbock on Halloween despite two 17 point deficits. The playoffs for us start now, and we get home field advantage except for a trip to Ames next week. If we lose this week, all hope is lost for the playoff but not for a Big 12 title.
Last week, we finally broke a punt return for a TD, and we were rewarded by now ranking 5th in punt return efficiency... Seems crazy, but that's what it is. However we also took a beating in KE after that KRTD and the short kicks that followed. Overall ST efficiency is 14th (down from 10th). TCU is 50th, and their strength matches up with our issues last week. They are 22nd in kick returns. However, they are 91st in punt, maybe we can break another PRTD?
The TCU offense is incredibly similar to the TTU one we saw last week statistically. TCU has a little less of a running game, but they make up for it in passing. As a result they are slightly more explosive. Their methodical drive values are average, much like TTU so I expect like TTU we may try to keep everything in front of us to start the game (we saw how that worked out for us in Lubbock). TCU also doesn't turn the ball over near as much as TTU and turnovers helped save us @ Tech. Interestingly enough, TCU has been their best on offense in the 1st Q before slowing way down in the 2nd Q and picking back up in the 2nd half. On a play-by-play level, this offense is top 3 in the country, behind Baylor and Tech. On a drive-by-drive level, 6th, two behind TTU.
The OSU offense is what it is. It lives on passing downs, particular 2nd and 3rd down. It's show a little more explosiveness the past few weeks (which could be a result of the defenses faced). We're beginning to have a pretty big issue on giving up sacks, thankfully they aren't coming on passing downs but this is one area to keep watching.
The TCU defense hasn't been great, but they've done enough given their offensive ability. They've given up some big plays and are really below average against the run, especially on standard downs. They aren't getting stops behind the LOS (stuff rate) and that means not getting to the QB either. However, on passing downs they are finding a way to get it done, ranking 26th in sacks on passing downs, preventing sacks on passing downs is an OSU strength. They have a terrible havoc rate with their front 7, their secondary is much better (11th in the country). Statistically, this defense is on a play-by-play level is somewhere between Kansas State (worse) and Texas (better). On a drive-by-drive level, this is the third worse defense we've played (TTU/KU worse by far), yes UTSA is slightly better (but comparable).
The OSU defense is basically top 40 defense in both play-by-play and drive-based statistics. Really, really good on passing downs (#9 in the country), with a top 30 havoc rate, most of that from the front 7 (21st in the country). Except for TTU, it has been good against explosive plays and drives and only giving up 37% of the available yards to a team and only allowing teams a first down 64% of the time (25th in the country). Below average at giving up methodical drives. If you want to look for weakness, other than giving up methodical drives, it's standard downs, particularly rushing defense, but really just overall on standard downs.
Things to watch:
OSU Punt Return vs TCU Punt D
OSU Kickoff vs TCU Kick Return
TCU D Sacks vs OSU OL on Passing Downs
OSU Runs vs TCU D on Standard Downs
TCU DB Havoc vs OSU QBs
OSU Front 7 Havoc vs TCU OL
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