The home stretch of the season is here. The Cowboys have everything in front of them, and for now they control their own destiny. In the final three games, if the Cowboys win out, they play in the Big 12 Championship game with an opportunity to get into the college football playoff. Should the Cowboys go 2-1, they would need some help, but could still make the Big 12 Championship game. If they go 1-2, there are a few very narrow paths to get there. A win this week is critical to keeping all the goals on the table.
TCU is coming off an emotional victory at home over rival Baylor. It's hard to tell if the Cowboys are catching them at a good time or bad. Many have assumed that they were pulling out their version of 'win one for the Gipper (or 'Coach Pat'), rallying together for a common cause; however, they rallying cry might have centered on a sense of relieved locker room tension. Gary Patterson and TCU parted ways, but there have been rumblings that his relationships with players had severely soured to the point that many no longer wanted to play for him. Could it be that those relationships basically led to them underperforming all year and that now they are no longer restrained and more able to play to their potential? These are good questions, and we will not know the answer of the emotional carryover until at least the end of the game on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are 4-5 and need to win two games to gain bowl eligibility. Assuming they beat Kansas at home next week, they have to pull off one road upset either versus OSU this weekend or in Ames the day after Thanksgiving. This team and coaching staff have nothing to lose. Expect them to empty the playbook.
TCU has talent on both sides of the ball. Even though they have three players who will likely get drafted on defense, their more talented and productive unit is the offense now led by Chandler Morris at Quarterback. Zach Evans is a legitimate stud running back, but he remains out. Kendre Miller had stepped up well in his absence, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Their speed and Duggan's tough running inside on read options had formed the basics of a solid run game that averaged 191 yards in Big 12 play, but they will find it much tougher against an OSU run defense that is giving up only 81 yards per game in conference play. Emari Demercado is expected to do the heavy lifting in the run game this week. Chandler Morris will chip in a few plays here and there, but the staff will likely not expose him to too many extra hits in the run game. His contributions will come more from escaping pressure. TCU will likely incorporate the receivers in the run and quick passing game much more against OSU to distribute the load. Even before the injuries at RB, TCU was transitioning to a more wide open spread passing attack that utilized a lot more empty sets than they have over the past couple of seasons, and this was very evident in the Baylor game. This system plays well with the strengths of Chandler Morris and gets their small, quick inside receivers into open space (Barber/Spielman), and allows for him to see the field easier and make quick reads.
It was evident that Baylor went into that game with the thought that they would sell out to stop the run, make TCU 1-dimensional, and then rally to the football. What they did not anticipate was that their pass rush would not hit home very often and that when it did Chandler Morris would time after time be able to escape for positive yardage on a scramble or to get the ball downfield in a broken play situation. The Bears held the TCU backs to 32 yards on 21 carries, but they lost containment on Morris (70 net yards on 11 carries) and could not get to the QB. Baylor had only 1 QB hurry and 1 sack! As a result, TCU went 30 of 42 in the passing game for 468 yards (2TDs). They absolutely torched Baylor through the air due to the inability of Baylor to get pressure and their struggle covering empty formations. This week, OSU will follow a similar game plan, but the Cowboys have a better 4-man pass rush than Baylor and expect to hit home more often. Additionally, OSU will give up less open space in coverage. The hope is that they can get into the backfield, force Morris to speed up, and thus disrupt the timing of the intermediate passing game. The Cowboys may give up a few deep balls against man coverage, but they should do a better job of getting TCU off the field on third down than Baylor did (7 of 14 on 3rd down).
NOTE: I believe Chandler Morris will force a few throws into coverage when trying to escape pressure. The OSU safeties should be able to get a couple of picks. His accuracy is much better from the pocket than on the move, particularly to his left. TCU likes to sneak the back out late into the flats as a check down.
OSU fans will see a bunch of the same stuff from TCU as in the last several times we have faced them. The run game utilizes zone schemes, stretch, and some option. They incorporated more of the deep passing tree against Baylor than in earlier games. They will try to use formation to minimize blitz/coverage options for the defense and create favorable 1 on 1 matchups on the outside. Quentin Johnston (#1) is one of the best young playmakers in the Big 12. He had over 185 yards receiving against Oklahoma and Baylor, while getting 113 against West Virginia. In other words, he has produced his best games when playing the best competition. He has size and speed. He excels in vertical routes, uses his body well to keep separation, and high points the ball in contested catch situations. Chandler Morris clearly trusts him, even throwing it up to him against bracket coverage in the Baylor game. This is the guy that creates chunk plays, and I would expect TCU to try and get it to him down the right sideline 4-5 times during the game and highlight him in the red zone. Getting home with pressure and forcing Chandler Morris to escape to his left will really help the secondary out.
Although they do not have another potential star player at the position, TCU has 4-5 other guys that they can roll through the receiver spots and be productive after Johnston. Derius Davis (#11-their dangerous return specialist) is a guy that they try to get matched up on safeties on quick slants and vertical routes. Taye Barber (#4) is solid and does most of his work in the middle of the field along the hashmarks on digs and posts. Blair Conwright (#22) normally lines up on the left side of the formation and is their best perimeter blocker. He gets away with quite a bit of holding, so I would not be surprised to see the Cowboy sideline work for a call when he is playing on that side of the field.
For the season, TCU is converting on 50% of their third down attempts (48% in conference games), second to Oklahoma. Oklahoma State is only allowing 19% conversion rate in Big 12 play. Something has to give. TCU averages 21 first downs a game in conference play, while OSU only allows 12. For both of these teams, this statistical measure has been a part of their winning formula. Any deviation could put the game in jeopardy for the one who can't impose their style of play.
Their defense has had to deal with a revolving door of injuries all year long. They have not been able to get the same lineup on the field consistently, and that has hampered continuity. Still, the defense has simply underperformed this year. They have talent that has not played to its potential. They have a defense that does not consistently tackle well and gets hurt by misdirection and cut backs. OSU has not had a 40 yard run this season. Hopefully the Cowboys can get one this week and next. The linebackers and at times safeties have not played consistently well with their run fits, while the interior has struggled at times with getting pushed back into the linebackers' laps. They have been at their best when playing aggressively against the run, but that has opened them up to getting hurt down the field.
They are still a base 4-2-5 team, but have not been able to generate the QB pressure and turnovers that their units in previous years thrived upon. They still utilize a ton of pre-snap movement up front. Their best players are at CB (Hodges-Tomlinson) and DE (Coleman, Mathis, Horton). CB/S Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (#1) is an All-American at corner. He is a great cover guy that may lack size, but plays with great effort and technique. He can show up and capitalize on a mistake by the quarterback. Spencer Sanders has shown some recent maturation in ball security and decision making. He can't afford to regress and get careless against this secondary. The Cowboy tackles are going to have to do a good job of blocking the DEs of TCU and not allow them to get inside of them without giving up the speed rush. OSU will have an advantage up the middle with the LG-C-RG matched up against the DTs and Mike. The Cowboy offensive line is going to be given the opportunity to wear out the Horned Frog front as the game goes on. That unit's performance will go a long way in determining the flow of the game.
Over the past couple of years, Big 12 offenses have been able to get TCU out of its wheelhouse (2 deep coverage) by going 4 wide and utilizing RPOs. As Coach Patterson adjusted, the scheme became more complicated and the defensive efficiency suffered. They now use a hybrid of 3 and 4 down packages with late linebacker/safety shifts against 4 WRs to keep that LB in the box instead of out in coverage. Doing this draws away safety help and puts them into more man situations than they want, particularly in the middle of the field.
This is an important game by virtue of its place on the schedule, but also because it is one of the top 4 offensive teams on the schedule. This needs to be a solid game from all three phases to start the stretch run off well.
TCU is coming off an emotional victory at home over rival Baylor. It's hard to tell if the Cowboys are catching them at a good time or bad. Many have assumed that they were pulling out their version of 'win one for the Gipper (or 'Coach Pat'), rallying together for a common cause; however, they rallying cry might have centered on a sense of relieved locker room tension. Gary Patterson and TCU parted ways, but there have been rumblings that his relationships with players had severely soured to the point that many no longer wanted to play for him. Could it be that those relationships basically led to them underperforming all year and that now they are no longer restrained and more able to play to their potential? These are good questions, and we will not know the answer of the emotional carryover until at least the end of the game on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are 4-5 and need to win two games to gain bowl eligibility. Assuming they beat Kansas at home next week, they have to pull off one road upset either versus OSU this weekend or in Ames the day after Thanksgiving. This team and coaching staff have nothing to lose. Expect them to empty the playbook.
TCU has talent on both sides of the ball. Even though they have three players who will likely get drafted on defense, their more talented and productive unit is the offense now led by Chandler Morris at Quarterback. Zach Evans is a legitimate stud running back, but he remains out. Kendre Miller had stepped up well in his absence, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Their speed and Duggan's tough running inside on read options had formed the basics of a solid run game that averaged 191 yards in Big 12 play, but they will find it much tougher against an OSU run defense that is giving up only 81 yards per game in conference play. Emari Demercado is expected to do the heavy lifting in the run game this week. Chandler Morris will chip in a few plays here and there, but the staff will likely not expose him to too many extra hits in the run game. His contributions will come more from escaping pressure. TCU will likely incorporate the receivers in the run and quick passing game much more against OSU to distribute the load. Even before the injuries at RB, TCU was transitioning to a more wide open spread passing attack that utilized a lot more empty sets than they have over the past couple of seasons, and this was very evident in the Baylor game. This system plays well with the strengths of Chandler Morris and gets their small, quick inside receivers into open space (Barber/Spielman), and allows for him to see the field easier and make quick reads.
It was evident that Baylor went into that game with the thought that they would sell out to stop the run, make TCU 1-dimensional, and then rally to the football. What they did not anticipate was that their pass rush would not hit home very often and that when it did Chandler Morris would time after time be able to escape for positive yardage on a scramble or to get the ball downfield in a broken play situation. The Bears held the TCU backs to 32 yards on 21 carries, but they lost containment on Morris (70 net yards on 11 carries) and could not get to the QB. Baylor had only 1 QB hurry and 1 sack! As a result, TCU went 30 of 42 in the passing game for 468 yards (2TDs). They absolutely torched Baylor through the air due to the inability of Baylor to get pressure and their struggle covering empty formations. This week, OSU will follow a similar game plan, but the Cowboys have a better 4-man pass rush than Baylor and expect to hit home more often. Additionally, OSU will give up less open space in coverage. The hope is that they can get into the backfield, force Morris to speed up, and thus disrupt the timing of the intermediate passing game. The Cowboys may give up a few deep balls against man coverage, but they should do a better job of getting TCU off the field on third down than Baylor did (7 of 14 on 3rd down).
NOTE: I believe Chandler Morris will force a few throws into coverage when trying to escape pressure. The OSU safeties should be able to get a couple of picks. His accuracy is much better from the pocket than on the move, particularly to his left. TCU likes to sneak the back out late into the flats as a check down.
OSU fans will see a bunch of the same stuff from TCU as in the last several times we have faced them. The run game utilizes zone schemes, stretch, and some option. They incorporated more of the deep passing tree against Baylor than in earlier games. They will try to use formation to minimize blitz/coverage options for the defense and create favorable 1 on 1 matchups on the outside. Quentin Johnston (#1) is one of the best young playmakers in the Big 12. He had over 185 yards receiving against Oklahoma and Baylor, while getting 113 against West Virginia. In other words, he has produced his best games when playing the best competition. He has size and speed. He excels in vertical routes, uses his body well to keep separation, and high points the ball in contested catch situations. Chandler Morris clearly trusts him, even throwing it up to him against bracket coverage in the Baylor game. This is the guy that creates chunk plays, and I would expect TCU to try and get it to him down the right sideline 4-5 times during the game and highlight him in the red zone. Getting home with pressure and forcing Chandler Morris to escape to his left will really help the secondary out.
Although they do not have another potential star player at the position, TCU has 4-5 other guys that they can roll through the receiver spots and be productive after Johnston. Derius Davis (#11-their dangerous return specialist) is a guy that they try to get matched up on safeties on quick slants and vertical routes. Taye Barber (#4) is solid and does most of his work in the middle of the field along the hashmarks on digs and posts. Blair Conwright (#22) normally lines up on the left side of the formation and is their best perimeter blocker. He gets away with quite a bit of holding, so I would not be surprised to see the Cowboy sideline work for a call when he is playing on that side of the field.
For the season, TCU is converting on 50% of their third down attempts (48% in conference games), second to Oklahoma. Oklahoma State is only allowing 19% conversion rate in Big 12 play. Something has to give. TCU averages 21 first downs a game in conference play, while OSU only allows 12. For both of these teams, this statistical measure has been a part of their winning formula. Any deviation could put the game in jeopardy for the one who can't impose their style of play.
Their defense has had to deal with a revolving door of injuries all year long. They have not been able to get the same lineup on the field consistently, and that has hampered continuity. Still, the defense has simply underperformed this year. They have talent that has not played to its potential. They have a defense that does not consistently tackle well and gets hurt by misdirection and cut backs. OSU has not had a 40 yard run this season. Hopefully the Cowboys can get one this week and next. The linebackers and at times safeties have not played consistently well with their run fits, while the interior has struggled at times with getting pushed back into the linebackers' laps. They have been at their best when playing aggressively against the run, but that has opened them up to getting hurt down the field.
They are still a base 4-2-5 team, but have not been able to generate the QB pressure and turnovers that their units in previous years thrived upon. They still utilize a ton of pre-snap movement up front. Their best players are at CB (Hodges-Tomlinson) and DE (Coleman, Mathis, Horton). CB/S Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (#1) is an All-American at corner. He is a great cover guy that may lack size, but plays with great effort and technique. He can show up and capitalize on a mistake by the quarterback. Spencer Sanders has shown some recent maturation in ball security and decision making. He can't afford to regress and get careless against this secondary. The Cowboy tackles are going to have to do a good job of blocking the DEs of TCU and not allow them to get inside of them without giving up the speed rush. OSU will have an advantage up the middle with the LG-C-RG matched up against the DTs and Mike. The Cowboy offensive line is going to be given the opportunity to wear out the Horned Frog front as the game goes on. That unit's performance will go a long way in determining the flow of the game.
Over the past couple of years, Big 12 offenses have been able to get TCU out of its wheelhouse (2 deep coverage) by going 4 wide and utilizing RPOs. As Coach Patterson adjusted, the scheme became more complicated and the defensive efficiency suffered. They now use a hybrid of 3 and 4 down packages with late linebacker/safety shifts against 4 WRs to keep that LB in the box instead of out in coverage. Doing this draws away safety help and puts them into more man situations than they want, particularly in the middle of the field.
This is an important game by virtue of its place on the schedule, but also because it is one of the top 4 offensive teams on the schedule. This needs to be a solid game from all three phases to start the stretch run off well.
