State of the Race - 35 Days Out

[my_2cents]

35 days to go. Tonight is the first debate. Good time to take a look at where we stand a little more than a month away from the election.

First, RCP popular vote. The RCP average has Biden at +6.1 in terms of the people's vote. Only one of the last ten polls show Biden with a double digit lead (+10, ABC News/Washington Post). A recent poll with the closest margin is Harvard- Harris, which has Biden at +2. Interesting to note, there has only been one national poll since May that had Trump in the lead (+1, Rasmussen, MOE 2).

Second, RCP swing states. Wisconsin - Biden +5.5; Michigan - Biden +5.2; PA - Biden +5.7; Minnesota - Biden +9.4; Ohio - Biden +3.3; North Carolina - Biden +0.8; Florida - Biden +1.1; Arizona - Biden +3.4; Georgia - Trump +1.3; Texas - Trump +3.6.

Third, RCP swing state map. 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 191 tossup.

Then there is the RCP state map with no toss up states: 353 Biden, 185 Trump.

FiveThirtyEight has Biden at a 78% chance of winning.

Should be interesting to see if tonight's debate changes the status of this race. I doubt it will.

 

[IrishPokerDog]

There’s an enthusiasm gap that isn’t cooked into the Polls that will skew the results towards Trump. But regardless of uncaptured data, trends are leaning towards Trump at the moment, especially in the generic Dem vs ‘Pub question and in the battlegrounds

Will be interesting in trends after tonight

 

[my_2cents]

There’s an enthusiasm gap that isn’t cooked into the Polls that will skew the results towards Trump.

Perhaps, but this is a "hope." Not a fact. This is a hope of Trump supporters, that the polls somehow are missing the enthusiasm of Trump supporters. And maybe they are.

But they are also could be missing the enthusiasm gap to see Trump defeated in November. Or maybe they are picking up slightly on it but not to the extent that it is actually there. Again, this is the hope of those supporting Biden.

With all that said, if the election was held today, all signs point to a Biden victory. Good news for Trump supporters though . . . the election isn't today, just the first debate. There is still time for Trump to narrow the gap in the swing states and pull off another close electoral college victory.

 

[my_2cents]

Will be interesting in trends after tonight

Do you think these debates have much of an impact?

 

[Ponca Dan]

Perhaps, but this is a "hope." Not a fact. This is a hope of Trump supporters, that the polls somehow are missing the enthusiasm of Trump supporters. And maybe they are.

But they are also could be missing the enthusiasm gap to see Trump defeated in November. Or maybe they are picking up slightly on it but not to the extent that it is actually there. Again, this is the hope of those supporting Biden.

With all that said, if the election was held today, all signs point to a Biden victory. Good news for Trump supporters though . . . the election isn't today, just the first debate. There is still time for Trump to narrow the gap in the swing states and pull off another close electoral college victory.

I can’t picture much of an enthusiasm gap to see Trump lose when the option is Kamala Harris.

 

[22LR]

Do you think these debates have much of an impact?

If the Dem’s attempt to change Biden’s biological clock over the past month fails (calling it quits at 8:30 a.m. and sending him to bed at noon so he doesn’t suffer Sundown Syndrome at night), then yes, the debates will have an impact.

 

[blbronco]

Do you think these debates have much of an impact?

I think this year more than most others, yes. You have the die-hard Trump supporters and the die-hard anti-Trumpers. What is missing is the die-hard Biden supporters. Debates have the chance to move the middle ground more than the typical election, IMO.

There are two big things that I think the average undecided can look towards. Does Trump blow smoke up everybody’s ass again (his overstatements will hurt him, I think), and do the moderators come off as severely biased (which will help Trump if they do).

The sideshow act is, how does Biden hold up.

That is the sad part. Nobody is excited about voting for Biden, it really is all about Trump, which does not help.

 

[my_2cents]

I can’t picture much of an enthusiasm gap to see Trump lose when the option is Kamala Harris.

That is because you want Trump to win and don't like Harris (and are rather obsessed with her it appears). You can't see past your own presuppositions in order to make a rational conclusions (i.e. your conclusion that Biden would be replaced as the nominee before the convention). One would think at some point you would learn your lesson.

I can tell you right now there is strong enthusiasm among Democrats to see Trump lose and Biden win. But I also know there is strong enthusiasm among Trump's base to see him re-elected. And sure, there is always the question of whether or not the polls are picking up on this enthusiasm from both sides, or are they missing it from one side or the other. The "hope" for both sides is that they are missing something. That is always the hope when it comes to polls.

 

[Soonersincefitty]

I'm not worried.
Trump wins.
GOP retains the Senate.
GOP wins the house back, led by Kevin McCarthy.

It'll be a beautiful thing to behold.

 

[my_2cents]

If the Dem’s attempt to change Biden’s biological clock over the past month fails (calling it quits at 8:30 a.m. and sending him to bed at noon so he doesn’t suffer Sundown Syndrome at night), then yes, the debates will have an impact.

Keep downplaying Biden's expectations. Smart move before a debate.

 

[IrishPokerDog]

Do you think these debates have much of an impact?

I think the potential for a large impact is there, definitely

 

[my_2cents]

I think this year more than most others, yes.

I personally don't think so. I think most people already know who they are voting for. Even those who say they are undecided . . . I doubt they are really undecided. There isn't much to be undecided about when it comes to whether Trump should have another four years.

Maybe these debates will move the needle a little bit, but I just doubt it. Minus some major blunder, I think the status of the race will essentially remain the same after tonight. In fact, even a major blunder may not change things that much.

I very well could be wrong though.

Nobody is excited about voting for Biden, it really is all about Trump, which does not help.

First, there are those excited about voting for Biden. With that said though, yes, this election is about Trump. He is the incumbent President. Of course the election is going to be about him, as it always is when an incumbent President is up for re-election.

And that is why I think we aren't going to see a lot of movement after tonight. I think most people have made up their minds about Trump. They are either going to vote for him or they aren't.

 

[22LR]

Keep downplaying Biden's expectations. Smart move before a debate.

Biden wanted a break every half hour. Big Daddy Trump said nope. You’ll stand for the entire 90 minutes.

 

[my_2cents]

I think the potential for a large impact is there, definitely

How so? A major blunder? What causes the large impact in your view?

 

[IrishPokerDog]

I think you underestimate the impact of the independents, which according to Gallup, is larger than each party - they can and are swayed

 

[my_2cents]

Biden wanted a break every half hour. Big Daddy Trump said nope. You’ll stand for the entire 90 minutes.

Yeah, and then "big daddy" Trump whined about how the debate is going to be unfair, how he will get all the tough questions, and how Wallace is controlled by the radical left lol!!

Trump Whining

 

[my_2cents]

I think you underestimate the impact of the independents, which according to Gallup, is larger than each party - they can and are swayed

Well right now, the so-called independents are breaking for Biden in most of the polls. There are still those independents who say they are un-decided (I haven't met one yet). I just don't think they really are. There may be a few, but again, I just think most people have made up their minds already about Trump and Biden. Again, I could be wrong. Just my opinion.

But back to the debate, what type of potential do you believe is there for a large impact? An impact that would cause us to see a dramatic shift in the polls over the next week?

 

[blbronco]

I personally don't think so. I think most people already know who they are voting for. Even those who say they are undecided . . . I doubt they are really undecided. There isn't much to be undecided about when it comes to whether Trump should have another four years.

Maybe these debates will move the needle a little bit, but I just doubt it. Minus some major blunder, I think the status of the race will essentially remain the same after tonight. In fact, even a major blunder may not change things that much.

I very well could be wrong though.



First, there are those excited about voting for Biden. With that said though, yes, this election is about Trump. He is the incumbent President. Of course the election is going to be about him, as it always is when an incumbent President is up for re-election.

And that is why I think we aren't going to see a lot of movement after tonight. I think most people have made up their minds about Trump. They are either going to vote for him or they aren't.

I don’t have major disagreements. For me, I am on the fence about voting for Jo (Libertarian) or Trump. I have many reasons for the hesitation either way.

But to your question, do you see this election as a blowout or do you think it will be tight? I think it will be very tight, thus, the debates will have a bigger impact. If Trump goes off as a bloviating bully, it will hurt. If Biden comes off tired/weak, it will hurt. On Biden, if he seems fragile, then it turns into an open Trump versus Harris election, is hen Harris could not come close to getting the nomination herself. GOP has already painted this as Trump against Harris.

 

[22LR]

Yeah, and then "big daddy" Trump whined about how the debate is going to be unfair, how he will get all the tough questions, and how Wallace is controlled by the radical left lol!!

Biden can be asked tough questions. No problem, so long as they don’t check for earbuds.

 

[my_2cents]

But to your question, do you see this election as a blowout or do you think it will be tight?

Right now, it is looking like a comfortable win for Biden (I wouldn't say blowout though). However, I want to see what the state polls are showing in thirty days before I make any firm prediction. And the reason for this is because there very well may be something the polls are missing right now that is easier to detect days from the election (which is why we sometimes see a tightening of the polls very late).

If Trump goes off as a bloviating bully, it will hurt.

I think Trump will come off as this, because it is what he is. And I don't think it will hurt him one bit with his supporters. They probably won't even think he acted like that.

Question, is there really enough undecided voters out there who this would bother? I just don't know if there is or not.

Americans know who Trump is, don't they?

On Biden, if he seems fragile, then it turns into an open Trump versus Harris election, is hen Harris could not come close to getting the nomination herself. GOP has already painted this as Trump against Harris.

This is one reason I stated on another post that Biden's expectations, while low, are not as low as they could be. Biden needs to perform well and he can't have any major blunder moments.

But even then . . . if he does, whose vote does that change? I'm going to vote for Biden regardless and so is everyone else who opposes Trump. Goes back to the question, are there really a lot of undecideds who would be swayed by something like this?

 

[22LR]

Right now, it is looking like a comfortable win for Biden (I wouldn't say blowout though).

LOL. Haven’t learned yet. 🤡

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

NRA has record 2020 enrollment. NRA members won't be voting gun czar Bozo O'Rourke.

WalkAway is gaining momentum. WalkAway was founded for Democrats who think for themselves.

Blexit is gaining momentum. Many blacks will not be voting for a segregationist and a fake Negro.

New Republican registration is killing Democrat registration in Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida. Many Hispanics seem on board for Trump.

Trump promises prosperity. Biden promises economic stagnation and higher crime rates. Both have delivered on these promises prior to the pandemic.

Most of us remember 2016 polling. What could be the savior for the Dimms? Mail in voter harvesting and a national average IQ of 98.

 

[aix_xpert]

How so? A major blunder? What causes the large impact in your view?

I think Biden is going to be put in a corner to walk the line between the zealot left-wing of the party and the moderates that he's supposedly attractive to. He'll look real weak if he dodges questions like "Who would be your top recommendations for the RBG seat if it were held open until after the election." And if he doesn't dodge them, then his answers run the real risk of becoming commercial fodder tying Biden to the extreme left.

 

[OUSOONER67]

35 days to go. Tonight is the first debate. Good time to take a look at where we stand a little more than a month away from the election.

First, RCP popular vote. The RCP average has Biden at +6.1 in terms of the people's vote. Only one of the last ten polls show Biden with a double digit lead (+10, ABC News/Washington Post). A recent poll with the closest margin is Harvard- Harris, which has Biden at +2. Interesting to note, there has only been one national poll since May that had Trump in the lead (+1, Rasmussen, MOE 2).

Second, RCP swing states. Wisconsin - Biden +5.5; Michigan - Biden +5.2; PA - Biden +5.7; Minnesota - Biden +9.4; Ohio - Biden +3.3; North Carolina - Biden +0.8; Florida - Biden +1.1; Arizona - Biden +3.4; Georgia - Trump +1.3; Texas - Trump +3.6.

Third, RCP swing state map. 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 191 tossup.

Then there is the RCP state map with no toss up states: 353 Biden, 185 Trump.

FiveThirtyEight has Biden at a 78% chance of winning.

Should be interesting to see if tonight's debate changes the status of this race. I doubt it will.

 

[Headhunter]

View embedded media

National polls are worthless.

We don't elect Presidents on popular vote.

 

[my_2cents]

National polls are worthless.

We don't elect Presidents on popular vote.

National polls are not completely worthless, but yes, we currently elect our Presidents with the outdated and flawed electoral college. And that is why I also included state polls.

 

[N. Pappagiorgio]

35 days to go. Tonight is the first debate. Good time to take a look at where we stand a little more than a month away from the election.

First, RCP popular vote. The RCP average has Biden at +6.1 in terms of the people's vote. Only one of the last ten polls show Biden with a double digit lead (+10, ABC News/Washington Post). A recent poll with the closest margin is Harvard- Harris, which has Biden at +2. Interesting to note, there has only been one national poll since May that had Trump in the lead (+1, Rasmussen, MOE 2).

Second, RCP swing states. Wisconsin - Biden +5.5; Michigan - Biden +5.2; PA - Biden +5.7; Minnesota - Biden +9.4; Ohio - Biden +3.3; North Carolina - Biden +0.8; Florida - Biden +1.1; Arizona - Biden +3.4; Georgia - Trump +1.3; Texas - Trump +3.6.

Third, RCP swing state map. 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 191 tossup.

Then there is the RCP state map with no toss up states: 353 Biden, 185 Trump.

FiveThirtyEight has Biden at a 78% chance of winning.

Should be interesting to see if tonight's debate changes the status of this race. I doubt it will.

Looks like you are good to go.