35 days to go. Tonight is the first debate. Good time to take a look at where we stand a little more than a month away from the election.
First, RCP popular vote. The RCP average has Biden at +6.1 in terms of the people's vote. Only one of the last ten polls show Biden with a double digit lead (+10, ABC News/Washington Post). A recent poll with the closest margin is Harvard- Harris, which has Biden at +2. Interesting to note, there has only been one national poll since May that had Trump in the lead (+1, Rasmussen, MOE 2).
Second, RCP swing states. Wisconsin - Biden +5.5; Michigan - Biden +5.2; PA - Biden +5.7; Minnesota - Biden +9.4; Ohio - Biden +3.3; North Carolina - Biden +0.8; Florida - Biden +1.1; Arizona - Biden +3.4; Georgia - Trump +1.3; Texas - Trump +3.6.
Third, RCP swing state map. 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 191 tossup.
Then there is the RCP state map with no toss up states: 353 Biden, 185 Trump.
FiveThirtyEight has Biden at a 78% chance of winning.
Should be interesting to see if tonight's debate changes the status of this race. I doubt it will.
First, RCP popular vote. The RCP average has Biden at +6.1 in terms of the people's vote. Only one of the last ten polls show Biden with a double digit lead (+10, ABC News/Washington Post). A recent poll with the closest margin is Harvard- Harris, which has Biden at +2. Interesting to note, there has only been one national poll since May that had Trump in the lead (+1, Rasmussen, MOE 2).
Second, RCP swing states. Wisconsin - Biden +5.5; Michigan - Biden +5.2; PA - Biden +5.7; Minnesota - Biden +9.4; Ohio - Biden +3.3; North Carolina - Biden +0.8; Florida - Biden +1.1; Arizona - Biden +3.4; Georgia - Trump +1.3; Texas - Trump +3.6.
Third, RCP swing state map. 222 Biden, 125 Trump, 191 tossup.
Then there is the RCP state map with no toss up states: 353 Biden, 185 Trump.
FiveThirtyEight has Biden at a 78% chance of winning.
Should be interesting to see if tonight's debate changes the status of this race. I doubt it will.