One thing that is consistently true in big time college football games and has been absolutely the case in Bedlam the past several seasons is that future NFL players step up and play like pros. The team with the best, healthy NFL skill talent generally watches as those young men make game changing plays. Combine that with a few quality college veterans playing with poise and solid quarterback play, and you have a formula that pretty accurately predicts outcomes of close games in these big time situations.
Before looking at this year's game, let's look back at the bedlam games.
2015 (23-58): The Sooners came into the game with one looming 1st round pick at WR (Shepard), 2 emergent early round NFL draft picks at RB (Perine & Mixon), a Heisman finalist at QB (Mayfield), and a talented complementary player that has stepped forward in 2016 (Westbrook). How did those guys perform? Mixon had 14 carries for 136 yards and 2 TDs. Perine had 17 carries for 131 yards and 2 TDs. Both had big 60+ yard TD breakaways. Shepard had 10 receptions for 87 yards and a TD. Mayfield was efficient with 17 of 25 passing for 180 yards and 2 TDs without a turnover. Meanwhile, the Cowboys really only had one player entering the game playing at that type of level, James Washington, and he delivered with 7 catches for 169 yards and a TD. The Cowboys also had a couple of veteran players like Walsh and Seales step up and play fairly well, but there simply was not enough firepower in the tank, especially considering the fact that the Cowboys gave up a pick 6 and a near kickoff return for a TD. OSU's best player was a pass rusher, but the run heavy attack mitigated his impact.
2014 (38-35 in OT): Samaje Perine carried the ball 26 times for 151 yards and 2 TDs, but a late ankle injury knocked him out of the game when his team needed him most in their last two possessions of regulation. As the Sooners tried to run out the clock, ahead by 7, they gave it to Alex Ross 3 straight times and he couldn't get a first down. They punted. OSU threw a pick. Again, they fed Ross, the Cowboys stuffed the run, and the fated "punt it again Bob" moment happened. Bottom line is that the most dynamic future NFL prospect on the field stepped up to make a play in a must-have moment. Tyreek's punt return is exactly the type of play that teams need from next level pros in big time college football games! With OU hamstrung by their ineefective quarterback (Cody Thomas) and the lack of explosive, healthy receivers, the loss of Perine late tipped the scales.
2013 (24-33): This was a game that was not packed with future NFL offensive skill talent, but OU had two future NFL bench players connect on a game winning TD with 19 seconds left to go in the game when Blake Bell found Jalen Saunders for a 7 yard score. This is what you expect your impact players to do in big games even as Blake Bell took over for injured Trevor Knight. Unfortunately, the Cowboys big impact player was Justin Gilbert, who could not make the game winning play 5 snaps earlier when he lost an interception
2012 (48-51 in OT): It's no wonder that Landry Jones threw for 500 yards in this game given that he had a loaded group of receivers: Kenny Stills, Justin Brown, Jalen Saunders, and Sterling Shepard who are all drawing NFL paychecks along with their former college QB. It is a credit to the Cowboy team that they led nearly the entire game until Blake Bell tied it on 4th and 1 with 4 seconds remaining in regulation. The Cowboys one future NFL skill player, Joseph Randle, had a monster game, scoring 4 TDs, and the Cowboy defense was opportunistic early.
2011 (44-10): This was a year where the advantage at the skill positions was clearly in OSU's favor, and it showed on the field as everyone made plays. As they made plays, everyone around them elevated their games, particularly the veteran players. Joseph Randle and Justin Blackmon played at a high level, and the OSU defense was aggressive right out of the gate, taking advantage of Landry Jones' propensity for making mistakes. Finch and Clay were simply not up to the task to carry the load offensively to take pressure off of Jones and the passing game.
2010 (41-47): In terms of skill talent, this game pitted two teams with pretty even firepower. Both quarterbacks would go on to be NFL draft picks and career backups in the NFL. Both could pile up the passing yards, yet each struggled with turnovers. DeMarco Murray and Kendall Hunter gave each team a player that could move the chains in critical situations. The receivng corps were solid for both teams. The difference in 2010 was razor thin, defined by a 2-play sequence involving two senior players having very good games for their respective teams: Brodrick Brown had a game changin INT go through his arms that would have put the Cowboys deep in OU territory with the opportunity to take the lead. On the very next snap, Landry Jones hit Kenney for an 86-yard touchdown. This was followed by Justin Gilbert returning the kickoff for a TD (NFL Player) and then James Hannah taking a pass 76 yards for a TD (NFL Player). Down by 9, the Cowboys opted for the quick field goal and an onside kick which was recovered by veteran Ryan Broyles to end the Cowboys chances.
Ok, why am I asking you to consider history? Simple. In this rivalry, the games have really tilted in favor of the team with the better, healthier NFL caliber skill talent in recent years. Sure, games are still won in the trenches, with defense and special teams, but in this era of explosive plays and offense in the Big 12, these big games have been defined more by the superiority of NFL skill talent and their ability to perform when their teams need them. When that has been paired with quality veteran college players and solid QB play, wins follow.
What makes this year unique is that both teams come into the game with very good offensive skill players. It is a bit reminiscent of the 2010 game, and it would not be surprising to see a similar type of game where there is a portion of the game dominated by explosive plays and some intermittent defensive success. Any honest assessment of the two sets of offensive skill players would give the home team a slight advantage, but there is enough talent on both sides to project success.
In future posts, I will break down this year's matchup, but there are a few quick hitter keys to the game that we can toss out to kick start discussion:
1) Mason Rudolph. He has not been nearly as effective and accurate in road games this year as he has been on the road. He must match or surpass the competitive level that his OU counterpart (Baker Mayfield) brings to the game. He needs to play aggressively and take shots down the field, but avoid trying to do too much and forcing underneath throws into tight windows. He will need to become a threat to take off on a run to hold the linebackers coverage depth and not hold on to the ball too long against pressure.
2) The Linebackers. Last year OSU's linebackers had some missed gap coverages in the run game and it really hurt the defense. Taking too shallow of pursuit angles and getting caught up in the wash presented problems with the inside backers flowing to the plays outside the tackles. As a result, Jordan Sterns was put in a lot of last man standing situations, winning many, but losing enough to give up big plays. The Sooners have a mismatch with Joe Mixon out of the backfield as a receiver against any Cowboy linebacker, so their route recognition will be important.
The Linebackers, part 2. With Jordan Evans less than 100%, the Sooner linebacker corps is a bit thin. They don't lack for talent, but they lack experience and discipline down the depth chart. Keeping them in run-pass uncertainty can exasperate their deficiencies in gap responsibility and zone coverage depth in their drops. Last year, the Sooners blitzed Walsh relentless, particularly with Striker off delayed rushes. They need Okoronkwo to provide them that perimeter pass rush threat to limit the slower developing route pairings that the Cowboys use with Rudolph at QB. For the Cowboys to remain balanced, they will need to beat the Sooner linebackers.
3) Special Teams. Close Bedlam games often swing on special teams play. The matchup to watch here is the Cowboys punt coverage unit against Westbrook as a punt return specialist. These are two team strengths going head to head. The winner in this matchup has a big leg up on the other in the field position battle.
4) Explosive plays. Both teams rely on explosive plays. Whichever defense does a better job of limiting them will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.
Before looking at this year's game, let's look back at the bedlam games.
2015 (23-58): The Sooners came into the game with one looming 1st round pick at WR (Shepard), 2 emergent early round NFL draft picks at RB (Perine & Mixon), a Heisman finalist at QB (Mayfield), and a talented complementary player that has stepped forward in 2016 (Westbrook). How did those guys perform? Mixon had 14 carries for 136 yards and 2 TDs. Perine had 17 carries for 131 yards and 2 TDs. Both had big 60+ yard TD breakaways. Shepard had 10 receptions for 87 yards and a TD. Mayfield was efficient with 17 of 25 passing for 180 yards and 2 TDs without a turnover. Meanwhile, the Cowboys really only had one player entering the game playing at that type of level, James Washington, and he delivered with 7 catches for 169 yards and a TD. The Cowboys also had a couple of veteran players like Walsh and Seales step up and play fairly well, but there simply was not enough firepower in the tank, especially considering the fact that the Cowboys gave up a pick 6 and a near kickoff return for a TD. OSU's best player was a pass rusher, but the run heavy attack mitigated his impact.
2014 (38-35 in OT): Samaje Perine carried the ball 26 times for 151 yards and 2 TDs, but a late ankle injury knocked him out of the game when his team needed him most in their last two possessions of regulation. As the Sooners tried to run out the clock, ahead by 7, they gave it to Alex Ross 3 straight times and he couldn't get a first down. They punted. OSU threw a pick. Again, they fed Ross, the Cowboys stuffed the run, and the fated "punt it again Bob" moment happened. Bottom line is that the most dynamic future NFL prospect on the field stepped up to make a play in a must-have moment. Tyreek's punt return is exactly the type of play that teams need from next level pros in big time college football games! With OU hamstrung by their ineefective quarterback (Cody Thomas) and the lack of explosive, healthy receivers, the loss of Perine late tipped the scales.
2013 (24-33): This was a game that was not packed with future NFL offensive skill talent, but OU had two future NFL bench players connect on a game winning TD with 19 seconds left to go in the game when Blake Bell found Jalen Saunders for a 7 yard score. This is what you expect your impact players to do in big games even as Blake Bell took over for injured Trevor Knight. Unfortunately, the Cowboys big impact player was Justin Gilbert, who could not make the game winning play 5 snaps earlier when he lost an interception
2012 (48-51 in OT): It's no wonder that Landry Jones threw for 500 yards in this game given that he had a loaded group of receivers: Kenny Stills, Justin Brown, Jalen Saunders, and Sterling Shepard who are all drawing NFL paychecks along with their former college QB. It is a credit to the Cowboy team that they led nearly the entire game until Blake Bell tied it on 4th and 1 with 4 seconds remaining in regulation. The Cowboys one future NFL skill player, Joseph Randle, had a monster game, scoring 4 TDs, and the Cowboy defense was opportunistic early.
2011 (44-10): This was a year where the advantage at the skill positions was clearly in OSU's favor, and it showed on the field as everyone made plays. As they made plays, everyone around them elevated their games, particularly the veteran players. Joseph Randle and Justin Blackmon played at a high level, and the OSU defense was aggressive right out of the gate, taking advantage of Landry Jones' propensity for making mistakes. Finch and Clay were simply not up to the task to carry the load offensively to take pressure off of Jones and the passing game.
2010 (41-47): In terms of skill talent, this game pitted two teams with pretty even firepower. Both quarterbacks would go on to be NFL draft picks and career backups in the NFL. Both could pile up the passing yards, yet each struggled with turnovers. DeMarco Murray and Kendall Hunter gave each team a player that could move the chains in critical situations. The receivng corps were solid for both teams. The difference in 2010 was razor thin, defined by a 2-play sequence involving two senior players having very good games for their respective teams: Brodrick Brown had a game changin INT go through his arms that would have put the Cowboys deep in OU territory with the opportunity to take the lead. On the very next snap, Landry Jones hit Kenney for an 86-yard touchdown. This was followed by Justin Gilbert returning the kickoff for a TD (NFL Player) and then James Hannah taking a pass 76 yards for a TD (NFL Player). Down by 9, the Cowboys opted for the quick field goal and an onside kick which was recovered by veteran Ryan Broyles to end the Cowboys chances.
Ok, why am I asking you to consider history? Simple. In this rivalry, the games have really tilted in favor of the team with the better, healthier NFL caliber skill talent in recent years. Sure, games are still won in the trenches, with defense and special teams, but in this era of explosive plays and offense in the Big 12, these big games have been defined more by the superiority of NFL skill talent and their ability to perform when their teams need them. When that has been paired with quality veteran college players and solid QB play, wins follow.
What makes this year unique is that both teams come into the game with very good offensive skill players. It is a bit reminiscent of the 2010 game, and it would not be surprising to see a similar type of game where there is a portion of the game dominated by explosive plays and some intermittent defensive success. Any honest assessment of the two sets of offensive skill players would give the home team a slight advantage, but there is enough talent on both sides to project success.
In future posts, I will break down this year's matchup, but there are a few quick hitter keys to the game that we can toss out to kick start discussion:
1) Mason Rudolph. He has not been nearly as effective and accurate in road games this year as he has been on the road. He must match or surpass the competitive level that his OU counterpart (Baker Mayfield) brings to the game. He needs to play aggressively and take shots down the field, but avoid trying to do too much and forcing underneath throws into tight windows. He will need to become a threat to take off on a run to hold the linebackers coverage depth and not hold on to the ball too long against pressure.
2) The Linebackers. Last year OSU's linebackers had some missed gap coverages in the run game and it really hurt the defense. Taking too shallow of pursuit angles and getting caught up in the wash presented problems with the inside backers flowing to the plays outside the tackles. As a result, Jordan Sterns was put in a lot of last man standing situations, winning many, but losing enough to give up big plays. The Sooners have a mismatch with Joe Mixon out of the backfield as a receiver against any Cowboy linebacker, so their route recognition will be important.
The Linebackers, part 2. With Jordan Evans less than 100%, the Sooner linebacker corps is a bit thin. They don't lack for talent, but they lack experience and discipline down the depth chart. Keeping them in run-pass uncertainty can exasperate their deficiencies in gap responsibility and zone coverage depth in their drops. Last year, the Sooners blitzed Walsh relentless, particularly with Striker off delayed rushes. They need Okoronkwo to provide them that perimeter pass rush threat to limit the slower developing route pairings that the Cowboys use with Rudolph at QB. For the Cowboys to remain balanced, they will need to beat the Sooner linebackers.
3) Special Teams. Close Bedlam games often swing on special teams play. The matchup to watch here is the Cowboys punt coverage unit against Westbrook as a punt return specialist. These are two team strengths going head to head. The winner in this matchup has a big leg up on the other in the field position battle.
4) Explosive plays. Both teams rely on explosive plays. Whichever defense does a better job of limiting them will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.
