It's great that Big 12 media days are here, because that means we are less than a month from continuous quality football conversation with on field things to discuss. In the meantime, we have about 3 weeks to hash out realignment issues and speculation. It's about as fluid a situation as you can possibly have, and no one (not even the major actors) can predict accurately what will happen and when. In this post I want to lay out some observations and things to consider going forward in regards to realignment.
1) Major realignment will take place before the end of July 2025 with new conference affiliations beginning in the 2026 season. There are many things that can impact the timing of announcements between now and then, including a variety of scenarios that could unfold that change placement outcomes. Most of the big moves will be known before July of 2024, and possibly much earlier. The timing will be connected to the negotiations for the new college football playoff media rights. The current agreement expires after the 2025 season. There is a battle between the B1G and SEC for influence over direction of the playoff structure, access, etc. The move to add USC had been in the works a long time, but was expedited by Texas' jump to the SEC. These two conferences will now have to work together to define what big time college football looks like in the future. They will lead the way in pulling out from under the NCAA governance in football and establishing a new governing entity. I think it's important for everyone that the B1G balanced out the perceived power.
2) There will be interim phases of conference realignment before the end game is reached. Some schools may move twice.
3) Notre Dame, the ACC Grant of Rights situation, value estimates on possible ACC/PAC alignment proposal, renegotiation of ACC contract with ESPN, and the attraction of new media bidders for conference rights will be the main things that drive timing of any future moves in the next 12 months.
4) Oklahoma State will wind up in a good position when all is said and done. If and when the top football programs breakaway to form a new entity, OSU will be a part of it. If an intermediate step involves the SEC expanding to 24 teams, OSU will be included. (They could also possibly be included in a move to 20 teams, depending on a few other factors.)
5) Notre Dame is the only school not currently in the B1G or SEC that is truly additive to the media rights allocations for all conferences. That is why they can be pared with a somewhat dilutive football school and still be a major benefit to the conference who adds them. Oregon, Clemson, Florida State, and Oklahoma State would be slightly positive for both conferences, but not enough to significantly move the needle alone. Utah, Washington, Miami, North Carolina, Baylor, Iowa State, etc. would be revenue neutral. Every other team would be dilutive to the SEC and B1G. This is why both the SEC and the B1G are saying that they are "comfortable at 16 teams". There is no school aside from Notre Dame that would financially benefit the entire conference on a per team payout. Now, should the ACC implode, those conferences could well swoop in due to timing and take teams like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami because they are not dilutive. Same would be true for the PAC with Oregon, Utah and Washington.
6) Teams that don't move the needle financially for the B1G and SEC will not get an invite to this conferences until the new playoff structure is established and estimates for those media rights have been determined. This puts the ACC, PAC, and Big 12 in a mad scramble to get to the top of the heap of this trio of conferences. There is room for 4 power conferences of 16 teams each, so one of these conferences will die off. As things progress, there will only be room for 3 20-team conferences, so there will be a struggle to gain the advantage. The PAC is in the weakest position which puts the Big 12 in an interesting spot to try and capitalize on that.
7) Within the next month, the PAC should receive feedback on the valuation of a proposed alliance with the ACC. Most people do not believe the numbers are going to be very good. These would be games broadcast on the ACC Network (converted by ESPN). The people I have spoken to do not believe there is much support at all for this among ACC schools, particularly Clemson. So, when those numbers come back (perhaps as early as the end of July), the new Big 12 commissioner could start his first week on the job extending offers to PAC teams.
1) Major realignment will take place before the end of July 2025 with new conference affiliations beginning in the 2026 season. There are many things that can impact the timing of announcements between now and then, including a variety of scenarios that could unfold that change placement outcomes. Most of the big moves will be known before July of 2024, and possibly much earlier. The timing will be connected to the negotiations for the new college football playoff media rights. The current agreement expires after the 2025 season. There is a battle between the B1G and SEC for influence over direction of the playoff structure, access, etc. The move to add USC had been in the works a long time, but was expedited by Texas' jump to the SEC. These two conferences will now have to work together to define what big time college football looks like in the future. They will lead the way in pulling out from under the NCAA governance in football and establishing a new governing entity. I think it's important for everyone that the B1G balanced out the perceived power.
2) There will be interim phases of conference realignment before the end game is reached. Some schools may move twice.
3) Notre Dame, the ACC Grant of Rights situation, value estimates on possible ACC/PAC alignment proposal, renegotiation of ACC contract with ESPN, and the attraction of new media bidders for conference rights will be the main things that drive timing of any future moves in the next 12 months.
4) Oklahoma State will wind up in a good position when all is said and done. If and when the top football programs breakaway to form a new entity, OSU will be a part of it. If an intermediate step involves the SEC expanding to 24 teams, OSU will be included. (They could also possibly be included in a move to 20 teams, depending on a few other factors.)
5) Notre Dame is the only school not currently in the B1G or SEC that is truly additive to the media rights allocations for all conferences. That is why they can be pared with a somewhat dilutive football school and still be a major benefit to the conference who adds them. Oregon, Clemson, Florida State, and Oklahoma State would be slightly positive for both conferences, but not enough to significantly move the needle alone. Utah, Washington, Miami, North Carolina, Baylor, Iowa State, etc. would be revenue neutral. Every other team would be dilutive to the SEC and B1G. This is why both the SEC and the B1G are saying that they are "comfortable at 16 teams". There is no school aside from Notre Dame that would financially benefit the entire conference on a per team payout. Now, should the ACC implode, those conferences could well swoop in due to timing and take teams like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami because they are not dilutive. Same would be true for the PAC with Oregon, Utah and Washington.
6) Teams that don't move the needle financially for the B1G and SEC will not get an invite to this conferences until the new playoff structure is established and estimates for those media rights have been determined. This puts the ACC, PAC, and Big 12 in a mad scramble to get to the top of the heap of this trio of conferences. There is room for 4 power conferences of 16 teams each, so one of these conferences will die off. As things progress, there will only be room for 3 20-team conferences, so there will be a struggle to gain the advantage. The PAC is in the weakest position which puts the Big 12 in an interesting spot to try and capitalize on that.
7) Within the next month, the PAC should receive feedback on the valuation of a proposed alliance with the ACC. Most people do not believe the numbers are going to be very good. These would be games broadcast on the ACC Network (converted by ESPN). The people I have spoken to do not believe there is much support at all for this among ACC schools, particularly Clemson. So, when those numbers come back (perhaps as early as the end of July), the new Big 12 commissioner could start his first week on the job extending offers to PAC teams.
