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(Psuedo-)Quantitative Analysis: Run/Pass selection, down & distance, etc.

trapped_in_tx

Heisman Candidate
Gold Member
Jul 9, 2001
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Longmont, CO
I'm a yard off somewhere... that's what I get for trying to do this manually in a text file instead of in a spreadsheet.

If you see something incorrect, speak up. I likely made errors somewhere - in fact, I know I'm off by 1 yard on the rushing somehow but I can't find it.

This is based off the ESPN.com play-by-play and box score. Some detail is missing... what play was called when the penalties occurred? I have no idea. I think everyone agrees that the sacks and the fumble were called as pass plays, so that detracts a tad from the pass totals as I tallied this.

The real thing that concerns me is what happened on 3rd down - those plays were generally feast or famine. The rest, eh, not so bad.

I'm not football smart enough to dive deeper into the specific plays called. I just did this to throw some facts out there in contrast to some comments made so far.

If someone has a suggestion for how to format this with fixed-width font other than using a code block, please let me know so I can improve it.

Code:
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       1yd
2nd &  9: pass      9yd
1st & 10: pass      5yd
2nd &  5: pass      6yd
1st & 10: penalty  -5yd (OSU)
1st & 15: run       2yd
2nd & 13: pass      8yd
3rd &  5: pass      0yd
4th &  5: punt
-----------------------------
1st & 10: pass      inc
2nd & 10: run       6yd
3rd &  4: run       0yd
4th &  4: FG       MADE
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       6yd
2nd &  4: pass      3yd
3rd &  1: pass      0yd
4th @  1: punt
-----------------------------
1st & 10: pass     21yd
1st & 10: run       6yd
2nd &  4: run      11yd
1st & G9: run       4yd
2nd & G5: run       4yd
3rd & G1: penalty   0yd (CMU)
3rd & G1: run       1yd  TD
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       0yd
2nd & 10: pass      inc
3rd & 10: pass      inc
4th & 10: punt
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       1yd
2nd &  9: pass     49yd
1st & 10: penalty -10yd (OSU)
1st & 20: sack     -1yd
2nd & 21: pass      inc
3rd & 21: pass      inc
4th & 21: punt
-----------------------------
1st & 10: kneel    -1yd (victory formation, half)
-----------------------------
2nd Half
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       3yd
2nd &  7: pass     20yd
1st & 10: pass      4yd
2nd &  6: pass     26yd
1st & 10: run      21yd TD
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       4yd
2nd &  6: pass      7yd
1st & 10: pass      inc
2nd & 10: pass      5yd
3rd &  5: pass     23yd
1st & 10: pass     -1yd
2nd & 11: run      26yd
1st & 10: run       4yd
2nd &  6: pass      1yd
3rd &  5: pass      inc
4th &  5: FG       MISS
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       5yd
2nd &  5: sack     -4yd
3rd &  9: run      12yd
1st & 10: run      10yd
1st & 10: pass     15yd
1st & 10: fumble   -8yd
2nd & 18: run       2yd
3rd & 16: pass     16yd
1st & 10: run       2yd
2nd &  8: pass     13yd
1st & 10: run       2yd
2nd &  8: pass     18yd TD
-----------------------------
1st & 10: penalty  -5yd (OSU)
1st & 15: pass      inc
2nd & 15: run       7yd
3rd &  8: pass      inc
4th &  8: punt
-----------------------------
1st & 10: run       1yd
2nd &  9: pass      inc
3rd &  9: pass     18yd
1st & 10: run       5yd
2nd &  5: run       4yd
3rd &  1: run      13yd
1st & 10: run      -5yd
2nd & 15: run       9yd
3rd &  6: run       0yd
4th &  6: FG       MISS
-----------------------------


-----------------------------
1st down plays total:  32,  85.0yd 2.66yd avg (!!!)
punt   :  0
FG     :  0
penalty:  3, -20.0yd   6.67yd avg
fumble :  1,  -8.0yd  -8.00yd avg
sack   :  1,  -1.0yd  -1.00yd avg
kneel  :  1,  -1.0yd  -1.00yd avg
run    : 18,  71.0yd   2.83yd avg
pass   :  8,  44.0yd   5.50yd avg

1st down plays with positive yardage: 18 of 32, 56.25%

-----------------------------
2nd down plays total:  24, 230.0yd 9.58yd avg (!!!)
punt   :  0
FG     :  0
penalty:  0,   0.0yd   0.00yd avg
fumble :  0,   0.0yd   0.00yd avg
sack   :  1,  -4.0yd  -4.00yd avg
kneel  :  0,   0.0yd   0.00yd avg
run    :  8,  69.0yd   8.63yd avg
pass   : 15, 165.0yd  11.00yd avg

2nd down plays with positive yardage: 20 of 24, 83.33%
2nd & <=5:  6 of 24;  1 sack -4yd;  2 pass   9yd, 1 1st down, 0TD;  3 run 19yd, 1 1st down, 0TD; total  28yd
2nd & >=6: 18 of 24;  0 sack  0yd; 13 pass 152yd, 6 1st down, 1TD;  5 run 50yd, 1 1st down, 0TD; total 202yd

-----------------------------
3rd down plays total:  15,  83.0yd 5.93yd avg (penalty snap not averaged - was on CMU)
punt   :  0
FG     :  0
penalty:  1,   0.0yd   0.00yd avg
fumble :  0,   0.0yd   0.00yd avg
sack   :  0,   0.0yd   0.00yd avg
kneel  :  0,   0.0yd   0.00yd avg
run    :  5,  26.0yd   5.20yd avg
pass   :  9,  57.0yd   6.33yd avg

3rd down plays with positive yardage: 6 of 14, 42.86%
3rd down efficiency                 : 6 of 14, 42.86%

NOTE: EIGHT 3rd down conversion attempts resulted in ZERO yards

-----------------------------
4th down plays total:   8,  0.0yd 0.0yd avg
punt   :  5
FG     :  3,  1 MADE   33%
penalty:  0,   0.0yd
fumble :  0,   0.0yd
sack   :  0,   0.0yd
kneel  :  0,   0.0yd
run    :  0,   0.0yd
pass   :  0,   0.0yd

4th down plays with positive yardage: 0 of 8, 0%
 
Last edited:
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