Oklahoma State 2025 Schedule Analysis and Game-by-Game Projections
Non-Conference Games
Non-Conference Games
- vs. UT Martin (FCS, Boone Pickens Stadium, August 28, 2025)
- Opponent Context: UT Martin, an FCS team from the Ohio Valley Conference, went 8-4 in 2024 but lost key players like RB Sam Franklin (1,212 yards). They’re outmatched by Power 4 teams, averaging 17 points against FBS opponents.
- OSU Outlook: OSU’s rebuilt roster (39 transfers, including WR Terrill Davis and DL De’Marion Thomas) and Meacham’s air raid offense overwhelm UT Martin. Flores, with a strong spring (60% completions in Orange-White game, per News 9), should exploit UT Martin’s secondary, while Grantham’s 4-2-5 defense (led by Kyran Duhon’s 7 sacks) stifles their run game. Home advantage and depth ensure a blowout, even if Flores is rusty.
- Win Probability: 95% (OSU’s talent and coaching edge dominate FCS competition).
- Projected Result: Win (1-0 overall, 0-0 Big 12). Score: OSU 45, UT Martin 10.
- at Oregon (Eugene, OR, September 6, 2025)
- Opponent Context: Oregon, a Big Ten contender, went 13-0 in 2024, ranked No. 1, and reached the CFP semifinals. They lose QB Dillon Gabriel (3,484 yards) but return WR Tez Johnson (1,165 yards) and add portal QB Dante Moore (UCLA). Coach Dan Lanning’s roster (No. 3 portal class, per 247Sports) and home dominance (7-0 in 2024) make Autzen Stadium a tough venue.
- OSU Outlook: OSU’s revamped offense (Davis, Fitzpatrick, Schick) faces Oregon’s elite defense (16.2 points allowed, 3rd nationally). Flores’s inexperience (no college snaps) struggles against Oregon’s secondary (8 INTs in 2024), and OSU’s line, despite improvements (projected 1.5 sacks allowed), faces pressure from DE Matayo Uiagalelei. Grantham’s defense (Thomas, Duhon) limits Oregon to ~30 points, but OSU’s offense stalls on the road. Meacham’s scheme needs time to gel against a top-5 foe.
- Win Probability: 15% (Oregon’s talent and home edge overwhelm OSU’s untested QB).
- Projected Result: Loss (1-1 overall, 0-0 Big 12). Score: Oregon 34, OSU 17.
- vs. Tulsa (Boone Pickens Stadium, September 19, 2025)
- Opponent Context: Tulsa (American Athletic Conference) went 4-8 in 2024, losing QB Kirk Francis to the portal. Coach Kevin Wilson adds G5 transfers, but their offense (22.8 points per game) and defense (34.8 points allowed) lag behind Power 4 teams. OSU has won 7 straight in the series.
- OSU Outlook: OSU’s home opener leverages Meacham’s tempo, with Flores targeting Davis (1,609 D-II yards) and Abshire (1,057 yards) for 250+ passing yards. The offensive line (Schick, Samuel) dominates Tulsa’s weak front (2.5 sacks per game), allowing Hicks/Brock to combine for 150+ rushing yards. Grantham’s defense shuts down Tulsa’s run game, with Darius Thomas (4 sacks) disrupting plays. Home crowd energy post-Oregon loss ensures a rout.
- Win Probability: 90% (OSU’s superior talent and series history dominate).
- Projected Result: Win (2-1 overall, 0-0 Big 12). Score: OSU 38, Tulsa 14.
- vs. Baylor (Boone Pickens Stadium, September 27, 2025)
- Opponent Context: Baylor went 8-5 in 2024, reaching the Texas Bowl, but loses QB Sawyer Robertson and RB Dominic Richardson. Coach Dave Aranda’s defense (25.8 points allowed) returns LB Matt Jones, and portal additions (e.g., QB Dequan Finn, Toledo) maintain competitiveness. Baylor’s 5-2 home record contrasts with 2-3 road struggles.
- OSU Outlook: Home advantage and Meacham’s scheme give OSU an edge. Flores, gaining confidence, exploits Baylor’s secondary (7.9 yards per attempt allowed) with Fitzpatrick’s 6-foot-4 frame. The line (Carpenter, Taukeiaho) holds firm, enabling Brock (6.2 YPC) to hit 100+ yards. Grantham’s front (De’Marion Thomas, Duhon) pressures Finn, projecting 2-3 sacks. OSU’s 2024 loss (38-28) fuels motivation, and the coaching staff’s cohesion tips a close game.
- Win Probability: 65% (Home edge and transfer talent outweigh Baylor’s road woes).
- Projected Result: Win (3-1 overall, 1-0 Big 12). Score: OSU 31, Baylor 24.
- at Arizona (Tucson, AZ, October 4, 2025)
- Opponent Context: Arizona struggled in 2024 (4-8, 2-7 Big 12) but retains QB Noah Fifita (2,769 yards) and WR Tetairoa McMillan (1,402 yards). Coach Brent Brennan’s portal class (No. 15, 247Sports) adds depth, but their defense (29.8 points allowed) remains vulnerable. Arizona went 3-3 at home.
- OSU Outlook: OSU’s offense faces a test against Arizona’s secondary (6.9 yards per attempt). Flores targets Davis and Abshire for 200+ passing yards, but Fifita’s precision challenges OSU’s secondary (McDaniel, Boykins). Grantham’s pass rush (Duhon, Chandavian Bradley) pressures Fifita, projecting 2 sacks, but Arizona’s home crowd keeps it close. Meacham’s tempo and Hicks’s running (4.9 YPC) exploit Arizona’s weak run defense (4.7 YPC allowed), securing a narrow upset.
- Win Probability: 55% (OSU’s transfer edge and defensive pressure overcome road challenge).
- Projected Result: Win (4-1 overall, 2-0 Big 12). Score: OSU 28, Arizona 24.
