Path to the championship

[OSU48]

Everyone who has followed wrestling for more than 5 minutes knows it will be very difficult to unseat penn state this year. With nolf, Joseph, hall and nickal all likely finalists and both nolf and nickal bonus machines, osu would likely have to have at least 4 probably 5 finalists and 4 champions.

So from the scuffle results we would have to have picc, fix, gfeller (either 41 or 49l, smith and white be finalists and the dream shot being smith beats hall in the finals. But also an equally big challenge is we have to have 3 or 4 other guys place well to match what penn state will likely have from their non finalists.

 

[osu2082]

Weigels injury really makes any realistic push extremly difficult. If healthy Weigel was a top 4 guy at that weight. Even then it was a long shot.

 

[osudog]

Nobody is beating PSU this year unless they lose 3-4 starters to injuries.

 

[Air_Thurman]

Next year is the year it starts. Don't get me wrong, PSU will still be the favorite maybe even decently. I would definitely put my money on them. That being said, IMO, they will look like a typical awesome college wrestling team and not an unbeatable juggernaut with 5 champions. 1-2 championships with solid guys up and down the roster.

 

[chasepollard]

For us to win it, Picc, Fix, Smith and White have to make it to the Finals and Gfeller, Chandler and Smith have to advance to semis, then Bonus to 3rd. Brock needs to AA.

It's just really unlikely. It could be really fun to watch, but this could be really similar to when Minny AA'd 10 guys and we had 5 champs.

Is there any info on injuries?

 

[Wrassler17]

Next year is the year it starts. Don't get me wrong, PSU will still be the favorite maybe even decently. I would definitely put my money on them. That being said, IMO, they will look like a typical awesome college wrestling team and not an unbeatable juggernaut with 5 champions. 1-2 championships with solid guys up and down the roster.

I agree, we have a better shot next year than this year because Nolf & Nickal are a virtual lock for around 55 points at Nationals. That's why the Kerkvliet flip still stings.

A couple of big unknowns about next year's race are who gets a 6th year (Cassar, Rasheed, Weigel?) and who takes an Olympic redshirt (Hall, Lee, Daton?).

 

[ionel]

For us to win it, Picc, Fix, Smith and White have to make it to the Finals and Gfeller, Chandler and Smith have to advance to semis, then Bonus to 3rd. Brock needs to AA.

That won't even do it. PSU has 6 guys who can win it, they will most likely get 4 champions and a lot of bonus. Even if OSU won 125, 133, 141, 149 don't think it'd be enough. If somehow Wyatt could turn into even Fr Mike (jr or sr Mike even better, always thought maybe ... ) and Weigel comes back and knocks off Nickal, then sure maybe. Joe can beat Hall but Valencia might do that anyway &/or Joe might not get to Hall. To beat PSU this year you have to have guys that can take out at least 2 of their top 4. It won't be any easier next year, just might not be PSU but rather Ohio St etc. But sure on the other hand its possible, you don't give up trying, guys get dinged up, but if PSU's top 4 to 6 are healthy, no one else is really going to help knock them off.

 

[lawpoke87]

I would consider finishing within 40 points of Penn St this year at nationals a successful showing. We simply aren't currently close to them.

 

[Air_Thurman]

Honestly, people need to forget about PSU. The goal should be second and at least getting a trophy.

 

[Wrassler17]

Honestly, people need to forget about PSU. The goal should be second and at least getting a trophy.

 

[lincolnhs]

The chances of winning at championship is simply................0%

 

[chasepollard]

Honestly, people need to forget about PSU. The goal should be second and at least getting a trophy.

**** that!

I get it, I know they are unreal. But they aren't as unreal as last year to me.

You've got two absolute, sure fire champs and for sure bonus machines. The others can get knocked off, it's March matness and crazy stuff happens.

Cael is the best in the business of avoiding that, but I only see 2 locks and 4 good chances.

If we get the most out of the lineup, we have a shot. I know it's not likely, but I'm excited for the fun.

 

[lawpoke87]

Of the five top pound for pound wrestlers in Flow’s latest rankings...four are from Penn State. They are a dynasty at this point.

 

[osudog]

**** that!

I get it, I know they are unreal. But they aren't as unreal as last year to me.

You've got two absolute, sure fire champs and for sure bonus machines. The others can get knocked off, it's March matness and crazy stuff happens.

Cael is the best in the business of avoiding that, but I only see 2 locks and 4 good chances.

If we get the most out of the lineup, we have a shot. I know it's not likely, but I'm excited for the fun.

Their line up would have to massively fail for us to even have a chance at beating them.

 

[chasepollard]

I understand that. I don't think we see Nolf or the Nickal do anything unexpected. I would be scared to bet that those two don't pin their way through their bracket.

Every other stud is not sure fire.

125 - 0pts
133 - a few pts
141- possible finalist but could end up 7/8
149 - no clue

So to here, they aren't daunting at all.

157 - one million pts
165 - better here than 141, but could be knocked off in semis
174 - same as above
184 - most likely AA, but could exit early
197 - one million pts
285 - similar as above

Probably at least 7 AA and 2 champs. If they perform at their least, we are in striking distance with our best performance.

125 - finalist
133 - finalist
141 - 3/4
149 - 3/4
157 - have to wrestle insane to AA
165 - 3/4
174 - finalist
184 - 3/4
197 - AA
285 - finalist

I know these results for both teams aren't likely, but it could happen. If it shakes out this way, there will be some consolation battles for the team Title. Disregard injuries, it's going to be an exciting tourney!