Tramel's ScissorTales: OU offense vs. OSU defense a showdown in Big 12 efficiency ratings
Berry TramelOklahoman
I don’t know if the Oklahoma schools can reach Bedlam without any further defeats. Maybe. Probably. But not for certain.
However, the game is shaping up as an historic matchup. Big 12’s best offense vs. Big 12’s best defense. Not by a little. By a lot.
By historic margins.
The No. 1 status of OSU’s defense and OU’s offense in my Big 12 efficiency ratings is getting only stronger.
The Cowboys’ 24-3 browbeating of West Virginia dropped OSU’s defensive efficiency to .162 (opposing offenses are operating at a percentage of .162). That’s the lowest in the nine years I’ve been doing the ratings, and the Cowboys’ 100-percentage-points lead over Iowa State is within a whisker of the largest margin ever. In 2019, Baylor finished with a defensive efficiency of .216. Kansas State was second at .319.
OU was off last week, but the Sooners’ offensive efficiency lead expanded, as the league settles into a fairly normal rate of offense. OU’s .573 offensive efficiency is 145 percentage points ahead of second-place Iowa State.
In those nine years, the biggest gap ever in offensive efficiency, at season’s end, was 177 percentage points in 2018, OU (.624) over West Virginia (.447). OU’s 2019 edge of 169 percentage points (.536 over Texas’ .367) also was notable.
But this OU offense could contend for that record, too.
So through two-thirds of the Big 12 season, what we seem to have is the best defense in a decade (OSU’s) and one of the best offenses (OU’s).
OU’s offense is a long-time national phenomenon. But OSU’s defense has turned into something quite rowdy.
Why?
“Two things,” said West Virginia coach Neal Brown. “A really good scheme, and they’ve got really good players
“They consumed us. They did a nice job. They’re a group that’s probably as veteran as you could find. Nine seniors, two fourth-year juniors that start. There’s not very many young players.
“They do good job mixing it up. They have the ability to play both man and zone. (Malcolm) Rodriguez is playing as good as any linebacker in the country. Their safeties, they do a really good job of giving you a lot of different looks, that they can do. They’ve been able to stop the run against everybody they play. If you can do that, you can kind of dictate the game.”
Baylor coach Dave Aranda is not quite as loquacious as is Brown. Aranda’s Bears host OU on Saturday, but Aranda was quite complimentary about the OU offense, particularly new quarterback Caleb Williams.
““The quarterback has injected their offense with some firepower,” Aranda said. “I think they have always done a good job with their run game. It is always attached to RPOs (run-pass options).
“Caleb’s ability to hit receivers in stride with tight coverage, I think stands out. I think the skill on the perimeter stands out.”
OSU’s defense against OU’s offense. Bedlam is going to be fun.
Here are the Big 12 efficiency ratings. Remember the criteria -- judging offenses and defenses by how often they do their job. For offenses, score, with touchdowns getting full credit and defenses half credit, in ratio to possessions. Same with defense.
Offense
1. Oklahoma .573: It’s not just the OSU defense that will test Williams. The Sooners have Baylor and Iowa State before Bedlam, and those teams rank 3-2 in Big 12 defensive efficiency.2. Iowa State .428: What a well-rounded team, the Cyclones. No. 2 offense in the Big 12 and No. 2 defense. You’d think they would be better than 6-3.
3. Texas Tech .425: The Red Raiders went off the blueprint and hired a head coach, Joey McGuire, without a reputation as an offensive whiz. But Tech did it before, with Tommy Tuberville, and Tech’s offense remained prolific.
4. Kansas State .398: KSU’s offensive efficiency is .476 in the five games Skylar Thompson has quarterbacked. Of course, Thompson missed the OSU game, so it’s not likely the Wildcats would have operated at that level.
5. Baylor .403: Should be a good test for the OU defense, but the Bears like to run the ball. The Sooners generally can stop the run.
6. Texas .377: UT’s number has been slipping and slipping all season. In the Longhorns’ last 40 possessions, they have produced seven touchdowns and two field goals. Not good.
7. TCU .363: Quarterback Chandler Morris gave the Horned Frogs a huge lift against Baylor. I assume he’ll start Saturday in Stillwater.
8. Oklahoma State .354: The Cowboy offense still hasn’t reached the fast lane. But I have a question. Is the defensive prowess prompting Mike Gundy to tap the brakes on the offense?
9. West Virginia .282: Ugh. The Mountaineers need a lot better offense to compete.
10. Kansas .158: Where have you gone, John Riggins?
Defense
1. Oklahoma State .162: In back-to-back games, OSU held Kansas and West Virginia to solitary field goals. It’s the first time since 1934 that the Cowboys held consecutive opponents to three points or less.2. Iowa State .262: The Cyclones play good defense, but they’ve got the No. 3 (Texas Tech) and No. 1 (OU) offenses the next two Saturdays.
3. Baylor .294: The Bears seemed rock solid on defense until Chandler Morris happened.
4. West Virginia .328: The Mountaineers are OSU lite. Known for high-powered offenses, defense has become their identity. If WVU could have put this defense with one of those Geno Smith/Will Grier offenses, the Mountaineers would have stood tall.
5. Kansas State .366: K-State really hasn’t changed under Chris Klieman, transitioning from Bill Snyder. Solid. Rock solid. In all areas.
6. Oklahoma .385: The unit that will most determine Big 12 football 2021 is the Sooner defense. Play well, keep dropping this number, and OU will be in the College Football Playoff. Let this number rise, though...
7. Texas .400: Getting worse instead of better, but Kansas is riding to the rescue Saturday.
8. TCU .446: All the talk about Gary Patterson’s defensive slide is off base. Yes, this year, the Horned Frogs stink on defense. But every other year in the Big 12, the deposed TCU coach put out a good-to-great defense.
9. Texas Tech .582: Tech had made a lot of progress defensively, even in the Kliff Kingsbury days, but this defense is awful.
10. Kansas .650: Where have you gone, John Zook?
Predictions
One fun sidekick to the efficiency ratings is a tool by which we can predict the score of matchups. They are not predisposed to predicting blowouts, but they’re fun to scour.Oklahoma at Baylor: Sooners 32-29. I can see this. Most OU games this season have been close. Most OU games in Waco are close.
TCU at Oklahoma State: Cowboys 32-21. Seems in the neighborhood. The Horned Frogs might have trouble reaching the three-touchdown threshold, but OSU might have trouble surpassing 30 points.
West Virginia at Kansas State: Wildcats 25-24. Surprise. Most of us wouldn’t expect this close a game. We’ll see.
Iowa State at Texas Tech: Cyclones 36-25. ISU will be happy to get out of Lubbock with this kind of win.
