Oklahoma State or Notre Dame? Who has the best case for College Football Playoff?

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Tramel's ScissorTales: Oklahoma State or Notre Dame? Who has the best case for College Football Playoff?​

Berry Tramel
Oklahoman

The Lincoln Riley news overshadowed the College Football Playoff scenarios. Heck, that’s probably even true in Stillwater, where a rousing Bedlam victory was the surrey, and Riley’s departure from OU is the fringe on top.

But OSU finds itself in tall cotton. A Big 12 Championship Game date with Baylor, and a win in Arlington could propel the Cowboys into the four-team playoff.

Alabama’s comeback against Auburn, winning 24-22 in four overtimes, keeps the Crimson Tide alive and probably in the top three. And OSU might indeed be sixth in the penultimate playoff committee rankings, which will be released Tuesday night.

Heck, I suppose it’s feasible that OSU doesn’t rise at all. The committee loves itself some Ohio State. Maybe it keeps the Buckeyes ahead of the Cowboys.

But the real question for Oklahoma State is this. Should the Cowboys jump Notre Dame and/or Cincinnati?

It’s hard to compare résumés of OSU and Cincinnati. One is in a Power 5 Conference, the other is not. At least not yet. One is once-beaten, the other is unbeaten.

But the résumés of OSU and Notre Dame are easy to compare. Each is 11-1. Each played 10 games against fellow Power 5 teams. So let’s compare.

But the real question for Oklahoma State is this. Should the Cowboys jump Notre Dame and/or Cincinnati?

It’s hard to compare résumés of OSU and Cincinnati. One is in a Power 5 Conference, the other is not. At least not yet. One is once-beaten, the other is unbeaten.

But the résumés of OSU and Notre Dame are easy to compare. Each is 11-1. Each played 10 games against fellow Power 5 teams. So let’s compare.

Game control: OSU has five wins by single digits (23-16 over Missouri State, 28-23 over Tulsa, 21-20 over Boise State, 32-24 over Texas and 37-33 over OU), plus two wins that were two-possession games at the finish (Kansas State 31-20, Baylor 24-14). Notre Dame has three wins by single digits (41-38 over Florida State in overtime, 32-29 over Toledo and 32-29 over Virginia Tech), plus three more wins that were two-possession games at the finish (27-13 over Purdue, 44-34 over North Carolina and 31-16 over Southern Cal). OSU’s loss (24-21 to Iowa State) was tight. Notre Dame’s 24-13 loss to Cincinnati was somewhat one-sided. Advantage: even.

Strength of schedule: OSU’s schedule is ranked 38th out of 130 Division I-A opponents. Notre Dame’s schedule is ranked 50th. Advantage: OSU.

So by what measure should Notre Dame be ranked ahead of OSU this week? The Cowboys have the superior résumé.

And if OSU beats Baylor, then there’s no comparison at all. Notre Dame, an independent, does not play this week. Plus the Cowboys would have a conference championship, which Notre Dame will not have. If somehow Notre Dame stays ahead of OSU this week, no way should the Irish stay ahead of the Cowboys next week.

It seems likely that OSU eventually would jump Cincinnati, too. The Bearcats are 12-0 and host 11-1 Houston on Saturday in the American Conference Championship Game. But Cincy’s strength of schedule ranks 96th nationally.

In the traditional polls released Sunday, OSU jumped Notre Dame and into No. 5.

Add it all together, and the College Football Playoff looks quite possible for OSU, provided it can get past Baylor.

Here are the final Big 12 rankings of the season:

1. Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1)​

The Cowboys’ Bedlam was very much like the win over Texas, except OSU didn’t get down against UT. But the Longhorn offense was very good early, then got stuffed in its final six possessions. The OU offense had eight second-half possessions and scored zero points.

2. Baylor (10-2, 7-2)​

That inexplicable loss to Texas Christian a few weeks ago is keeping the Bears from playoff contention.

3. Oklahoma (10-2, 7-2)​

Lost Bedlam on Saturday. Lost Riley on Sunday. I don’t know which is injury and which is insult, but it doesn’t feel good either way.

4. Iowa State (7-5, 5-4)​

The Cyclones finish fourth in the Big 12. What a rollercoaster season. Maybe a season that keeps Matt Campbell in Ames.

5. Kansas State (7-5, 4-5)​

The Wildcats were 4-3 in conference with quarterback Skylar Thompson but 0-2 without him, losing relatively close games to OSU and Texas.

6. West Virginia (6-6, 4-5)​

Nice rebound for the Mountaineers. Tying for fifth in the Big 12 and becoming bowl eligible seemed unlikely a few weeks ago.

7. Texas Tech (6-6, 3-6)​

Interesting team. Beat Houston and Iowa State, dang near beat Baylor.

8. Texas (5-7, 3-6)​

The Longhorns had a fine weekend, too. Ended their six-game losing streak and arch-rival Riley is headed for Hollywood.

9. Texas Christian (5-7, 3-6)​

Wonder if Sonny Dykes turned down Texas Tech?

10. Kansas (2-10, 1-8)​

Don’t look now, but KU coach Lance Leopold has been on the job for seven months, yet he ranks seventh out of 10 in Big 12 longevity.