I know that this post will be lost on several of you who have made your voice clearly heard, so this is not directed at you. This post is for those that have asked about the rational for more conservative (run calls) on first down against the looks Texas was giving OSU.
Without getting too complicated, look at the goal of first down calls to best position the offense to get another first down. Whether by staying ahead of the chains or manipulating the defense for another play, the goal is to extend drives. Against a defense playing to keep everything in front of them, it becomes necessary to be patient.
In the Texas game, OSU called a pass play on 1st down 12 times. On only five of those series of downs did the offense get another first down after the first down pass call (and that includes the famous defensive holding/unsportsmanlike conduct sequence). Additionally, the offense gave up 3 sacks (1 was the intentional grounding call), one near sack (Rudolph for 2 yard scramble), the fumble return for a touchdown, and an interception. On the seven possessions where a pass was called on first down, the offense scored one touchdown and then the field goal to tie the game (even though that pass was incomplete). Bottom line is that only 5 of 12 1st down pass plays successfully netted a 1st down in that series of downs.
On the flip side, OSU called 25 runs on first down. Of those run calls, 21 led to either another first down in that series or touchdown on that play. That is not to say that every first down run call was as effective as desired, but for the most part, they allowed the offense to either stay ahead of the chains or set up play action. It was not until the 18th 1st down run call that the offense failed to get a 1st down on that series of downs. The first time the series did not net a first down was immediately following Seth Jacob's 3rd quarter interception.
The results of the 1st down run calls were mixed, with only half netting 4 yards or more (6.5 yard average with no big runs to bias the numbers). Two produced negative yardage (the third one of the game and the final one). Two went for no gain. {Defenses are always going to make a few good plays, and 4 out of 25 is within the acceptable limit.}
The other 8 carries are where minimal improvement could really make a difference. Turning those 8 carries from 2 yard average to 4 yards is the margin of improvement that I was alluding to in the other thread in terms of building a consistent ground game that would open up the entire offense. That will create the ability to more readily go over the top, reduce the run blitzes and pop some bigger runs. People who say that improving the run game 16 yards is not likely have no credibility. Obviously, if that improvement is made, it will also lead to bigger gains on the top end.
So, if you are on the fence trying to understand why the 1st down calls were so run heavy, it's because those series of downs were actually more successful. They just require patience to appreciate.
Without getting too complicated, look at the goal of first down calls to best position the offense to get another first down. Whether by staying ahead of the chains or manipulating the defense for another play, the goal is to extend drives. Against a defense playing to keep everything in front of them, it becomes necessary to be patient.
In the Texas game, OSU called a pass play on 1st down 12 times. On only five of those series of downs did the offense get another first down after the first down pass call (and that includes the famous defensive holding/unsportsmanlike conduct sequence). Additionally, the offense gave up 3 sacks (1 was the intentional grounding call), one near sack (Rudolph for 2 yard scramble), the fumble return for a touchdown, and an interception. On the seven possessions where a pass was called on first down, the offense scored one touchdown and then the field goal to tie the game (even though that pass was incomplete). Bottom line is that only 5 of 12 1st down pass plays successfully netted a 1st down in that series of downs.
On the flip side, OSU called 25 runs on first down. Of those run calls, 21 led to either another first down in that series or touchdown on that play. That is not to say that every first down run call was as effective as desired, but for the most part, they allowed the offense to either stay ahead of the chains or set up play action. It was not until the 18th 1st down run call that the offense failed to get a 1st down on that series of downs. The first time the series did not net a first down was immediately following Seth Jacob's 3rd quarter interception.
The results of the 1st down run calls were mixed, with only half netting 4 yards or more (6.5 yard average with no big runs to bias the numbers). Two produced negative yardage (the third one of the game and the final one). Two went for no gain. {Defenses are always going to make a few good plays, and 4 out of 25 is within the acceptable limit.}
The other 8 carries are where minimal improvement could really make a difference. Turning those 8 carries from 2 yard average to 4 yards is the margin of improvement that I was alluding to in the other thread in terms of building a consistent ground game that would open up the entire offense. That will create the ability to more readily go over the top, reduce the run blitzes and pop some bigger runs. People who say that improving the run game 16 yards is not likely have no credibility. Obviously, if that improvement is made, it will also lead to bigger gains on the top end.
So, if you are on the fence trying to understand why the 1st down calls were so run heavy, it's because those series of downs were actually more successful. They just require patience to appreciate.
