Nate Silver Seems a Little Nervous
- Thread starter Marshal Jim Duncan
- Start date
Lots of their own conjecture in that article lol. “Relative certainty” of no blue wave
How many seat pick ups in the House would constitute a “blue wave”?
Republicans gained 63 in 2010. At least 50 I’d think. What say you?
That is some partisan spinning of an intellectually honest take.
Nobody knows what's gonna happen. You can have unprecedented turnout in one race and the norm in another. Good luck predicting that in a normal year, much less with all the division and energy this year.
That’s just what I would consider a “blue wave”. Anything less is a weak ebb tide.
This is the real issue. Polling for a mid-term is historically difficult because turnouts are so much less that any 'enthusiasm' blips have an outsized effect. Add in the fairly significant misses in the 2016 polling and the weightings used, any polling number has to be taken with a very large grain of salt.
