You are correct. Heritage is correct. Trump should be praised for his advocacy of tax cuts, his zealous attack on regulations. But he is dead wrong on tariffs. They threaten to derail all his accomplishments. They put us in jeopardy of an international trade war, the consequences of which could be deadly. He is a fool for thinking trade wars are good and can be won. The only “winners” in a trade war are the crony capitalists with political pull. I think people are going to be pretty upset when they realize their savings from the tax reform have been swallowed by the higher prices caused by the tariffs.https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahb...rumps-first-year-better-than-reagans-n2439980
Heritage Foundation says Trump more successful in first year than Reagan.
I don’t know. As has been explained before a lot of the initial damage will be unseen because it will be widely dispersed over the entire economy. That’s how politicians get away with it. What you see is Trump “saved” 140K jobs in the steel industry. (The jobs are not in any particular jeopardy because of foreign imports, far greater is the threat from technology and automation.). What you won’t see is 200K workers in the poultry industry are laid off because a foreign country responded with tariffs on American poultry. So it’s very hard to know. When Bush put tariffs on steel in 2002 he took them off in 2003 because they were causing so much harm. I hope and pray DJT will not be so hard headed he will keep them on even when it is obvious they are having a deleterious effect.What is the timeline that is acceptable to see if you are right or wrong on this?
I sometimes suffer from an over abundance of OCD. This is one of those times. It’s a very hot topic for me. Please feel free to ignore my posts if they annoy you. I can be very annoying sometimes.They threaten to derail all his accomplishments. They put us in jeopardy of an international trade war, the consequences of which could be deadly.
Im having a hard time thinking the above will go unseen. I want to know if all of your feather flapping is going to come to fruition or not. If so I want to bump all 100 of your threads on the topic and praise your insight. If not, I want to bump all of your threads and say gtfo.
I sometimes suffer from an over abundance of OCD. This is one of those times. It’s a very hot topic for me. Please feel free to ignore my posts if they annoy you. I can be very annoying sometimes.
I don’t ignore anybody and you are not annoying me. It’s obvious you are passionate about this, but what I see in that you are so adamant, you are leaving zero room for being wrong. That’s a set up for one of two things. I just want to make sure I react accordingly when this tariff gets absorbed like the other tens of thousands of international economic tweaks or when trump is dragged through the streets because he wrecked the world.
I do not know what the consequences will be. No one does, because at this time no one knows how the rest of the world will react.
I sometimes suffer from an over abundance of OCD. This is one of those times. It’s a very hot topic for me. Please feel free to ignore my posts if they annoy you. I can be very annoying sometimes.
There are a lot of reports that Australia will receive an exemption along with Canada and Mexico. So far the Trump administration is denying it, but there is a lot of smoke coming from the Australian government that it is so.This morning news in Brisbane had a guy on talking about the tariffs and how vague some of it is. Australia also has an anti-dumping dept in the government, so if say China decides to drop steel prices precipitously Australia will not and can not purchase that steel.
I’ve read a few news papers here and none of them are worried about this. See what the newspapers in Singapore and KL say before I head home.
Still say the whole tariffs deal is a different bird than when Bush tried this. Who knows maybe Trump is wanting another WTO suit so the US can show the unfair trade practices that do exist between the US and I would assume China, mostly.
Here is some irony though. After talking to some business people in Australia they let it be known that Americans can buy Australia wine in the US cheaper than Australians in Australia can buy it. Crazy stuff these governments do.
I think Trump believes the tariffs will drive foreign companies to open steel mills in the US, thus adding jobs. It’s kind of ironic though. Each dollar a foreign company spends on building mills in the US counts as adding onto the trade deficit. He’s saying no imports because of the trade deficit but wants them to build in the US which adds to the trade deficit.Thanks Dan, didn’t know the percentage. Then this will truly be aimed at The Chinese Goverments ability to subsidize steel sales to other countries.
Australia absolutely believes they will be exempt, their PM basically said so yesterday while he was in NSW.
What baffles me though, and I have direct knowledge of this, the pipe/coated pipe that comes out of China is mostly garbage. My previous company nearly got sucked into one of these projects in Western Australia a few years back. The coating on the pipe was garbage and popped off when the pipe was field bender. The ends were way out of round and so on and so on. Even the coating that was “allegedly” put on the pipe was a knock off as I know the area rep well and he told me he never sold that material to that company in the enormous quantity that would have been needed to fully cost out that line.
That may explain why they only get 2% of the US’ import business! Free trade has a way of sorting that stuff out.Thanks Dan, didn’t know the percentage. Then this will truly be aimed at The Chinese Goverments ability to subsidize steel sales to other countries.
Australia absolutely believes they will be exempt, their PM basically said so yesterday while he was in NSW.
What baffles me though, and I have direct knowledge of this, the pipe/coated pipe that comes out of China is mostly garbage. My previous company nearly got sucked into one of these projects in Western Australia a few years back. The coating on the pipe was garbage and popped off when the pipe was field bended. The ends were way out of round and so on and so on. Even the coating that was “allegedly” put on the pipe was a knock off as I know the area rep well and he told me he never sold that material to that company in the enormous quantity that would have been needed to fully cost out that line.
I do not know what the consequences will be. No one does, because at this time no one knows how the rest of the world will react. One thing is absolutely certain: prices on products that contain steel will go up. How will industries that are impacted by the rising prices going to respond? Will they bite the bullet and raise their prices to the public? Probably so. If they do they can expect to sell less of their product. Lose too much market share and they will have layoffs. Lose too much market share and they will make less of their product, thus purchasing less steel. How will that impact the steel industry, which is responsible for this merry go round to begin with? Or will they frantically look for a substitute for steel in their products? If they find a substitute they will buy less steel. Steel workers face layoffs. No matter what happens Trump and his cronies will be the winners. A sizable portion of his base will stand by him no matter what. Another portion of his voters may notice there have been layoffs in some industries, and the extra money they got from the tax reform doesn’t go nearly as far as they had expected. But like most voters they are ignorant when it comes to economics and they will blame the evil greedy corporations and capitalism. Trump and his cronies will skate, much like the Clintons have for these last decades.
I don’t know.Where can I validate spot prices on steel or affected precursors? Historical prices? Thanks.
I don’t know.
That may explain why they only get 2% of the US’ import business! Free trade has a way of sorting that stuff out.
Then how do we validate your claims?
You might begin by reading the reaction of almost every economist alive, and by looking at history. The original link by Mona Charen pointed out Thomas Jefferson tried it and the American economy collapsed. He had to abandon his plans a year later. That follows all the way up to George Bush’s tariff on steel in 2002, which he dropped a year later because of the negative consequences, and Obama’s tariffs on Chinese tires, which cost other industries in the US to lose upwards of 200,000 jobs. This is not an ideological issue for economists, most of them anyway. They tend to look at what works and what doesn’t work and base their judgements accordingly. The “science is settled” on this issue, at least from an economic and historical perspective. Actually it doesn’t matter whether you can validate my concerns. What will happen will happen.Then how do we validate your claims?
Actually most of the pipeline people I know won’t buy Chinese pipe because it’s shit. While cheaper, they know that the quality, especially if coated is terrible. Why you often see pipe that is bought from China is coated in India, Saudi or some other location. I just didn’t realize it’s 2% which is extremely low.
Just out of curiosity, Harry, I wonder if you’ve read a single one of the 100 links I’ve posted.They threaten to derail all his accomplishments. They put us in jeopardy of an international trade war, the consequences of which could be deadly.
Im having a hard time thinking the above will go unseen. I want to know if all of your feather flapping is going to come to fruition or not. If so I want to bump all 100 of your threads on the topic and praise your insight. If not, I want to bump all of your threads and say gtfo.
Just out of curiosity, Harry, I wonder if you’ve read a single one of the 100 links I’ve posted.
You are under no obligation to click onto any thread in which I participate. Please ignore me if you want!I think a tariff stole Ponca Dan's wife.
Geesh, We get it, you HATE them.