One last pet peeve of mine that I want to unload before turning my attention to Kansas State for the remainder of the week is the mis-characterization of the play calling percentages of the top half of the Big 12. I keep hearing people talking about 60-40 or greater ratios in favor of passing, but the reality is that Dana Holgorsen and Art Briles are not just slinging the ball all the time. In fact, both of them have moved their play calling balance in favor of the run to increase the effectiveness of vertical routes off of play-action and to help their defenses.
As a percentage of their play calling, here is where these teams stand, and you will notice that only Texas Tech is operating a true air raid offense with the expected run-pass play calling ratio.
Baylor: 60.6% Run; 39.4% Pass
West Virginia: 60.3% Run; 39.7% Pass
Oklahoma State: 54.0% Run; 46% Pass
TCU: 51.8% Run; 48.2% Pass
Oklahoma: 51.8% Run; 48.2% Pass
Texas Tech: 42.1% Run; 57.9% Pass
When I look at these six teams, my guess would be that if the ratios hold true, then Baylor, West Virginia, and OSU will have the best defenses. Oklahoma and/or TCU could wind up in that mix as well. My guess is that Texas Tech falls off substantially as the season progresses.
Simply put, establishing the run is essential for a great vertical passing game as it pulls in the safeties. Look at these yard per attempt numbers and how it directly correlates to the run-pass ratio.
Baylor: 12.2
West Virginia: 10.2
OSU: 9.8
TCU: 9.7
Oklahoma: 9.4
Texas Tech: 9.1
So, you might wonder how this works with completion percentages. As you look at the following numbers, you discover that more pass heavy attacks do not even complete a higher percentage of their passes in spite of the fact the offense uses the passing game more prominently as an extension of the run game.
West Virginia: 69.5
Oklahoma State: 67.7
Oklahoma: 66.4
TCU: 65.5
Baylor: 65.3
Texas Tech: 62.3
So, besides correcting the oft repeated mantras about how things are so much different in terms of run-pass play calling with Baylor, West Virginia, TCU, and OSU's offenses, why do I bring these stats up? I bring them up, because it demonstrates that if OSU can get slightly better production from the run game, it could have a dramatic impact on the scoreboard. I believe OSU needs to average about 4.5-4.8 yards per carry from here on out to see a noticeable change in overall offensive production.
As a percentage of their play calling, here is where these teams stand, and you will notice that only Texas Tech is operating a true air raid offense with the expected run-pass play calling ratio.
Baylor: 60.6% Run; 39.4% Pass
West Virginia: 60.3% Run; 39.7% Pass
Oklahoma State: 54.0% Run; 46% Pass
TCU: 51.8% Run; 48.2% Pass
Oklahoma: 51.8% Run; 48.2% Pass
Texas Tech: 42.1% Run; 57.9% Pass
When I look at these six teams, my guess would be that if the ratios hold true, then Baylor, West Virginia, and OSU will have the best defenses. Oklahoma and/or TCU could wind up in that mix as well. My guess is that Texas Tech falls off substantially as the season progresses.
Simply put, establishing the run is essential for a great vertical passing game as it pulls in the safeties. Look at these yard per attempt numbers and how it directly correlates to the run-pass ratio.
Baylor: 12.2
West Virginia: 10.2
OSU: 9.8
TCU: 9.7
Oklahoma: 9.4
Texas Tech: 9.1
So, you might wonder how this works with completion percentages. As you look at the following numbers, you discover that more pass heavy attacks do not even complete a higher percentage of their passes in spite of the fact the offense uses the passing game more prominently as an extension of the run game.
West Virginia: 69.5
Oklahoma State: 67.7
Oklahoma: 66.4
TCU: 65.5
Baylor: 65.3
Texas Tech: 62.3
So, besides correcting the oft repeated mantras about how things are so much different in terms of run-pass play calling with Baylor, West Virginia, TCU, and OSU's offenses, why do I bring these stats up? I bring them up, because it demonstrates that if OSU can get slightly better production from the run game, it could have a dramatic impact on the scoreboard. I believe OSU needs to average about 4.5-4.8 yards per carry from here on out to see a noticeable change in overall offensive production.
