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Mid-Term Betting Odds

Bitter Creek

Heisman Candidate
Apr 24, 2008
8,234
4,915
113
http://www.politicalbettingodds.com/2018-midterm-election-odds.html

Governors:
With 36 governors up for reelection or replacement this year, the 2018 gubernatorial odds are sure to be action-packed at Bovada et al. Currently, there are 26 Republican-held governorships being challenged, while only 9 Democrat administrations will be voted on. There’s also a single independent up for reelection (Alaska’s Bill Walker). The majority of these races – to hear the pundits and analysts wax endlessly about them – are perilous for the incumbents, and several states may even change “color” as the party in charge is flipped the other way. Check in at your oddsmaker of choice as election season nears for a complete menu of gubernatorial races as part of their 2018 midterm election odds.

Senate:
Right now, the US Senate is composed of 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (two of whom are “independents,” which is an effectively meaningless differentiator from the mainstream Democrat party). Of the 34 seats up for grabs this year, 26 are controlled by the Democrats, who need just two seats to gain control of the chamber. However, this outcome seems unlikely, as none of the “Red” states in play strongly favor a Democrat candidate. In the Senate races, the current projections favor a Republican gain of 1-3 seats. As the campaigning season heats up, the 2018 Senate race odds will be available to wager on at your sportsbook of choice.

House:
The 2018 House race odds haven’t been posted yet, but there’s going to be a lot of action on these contests at most online sportsbooks. Currently, Republicans retain the House of Representatives by a narrow margin with 238 seats – or just 20 more than the minimum for majority control. Most “simulations” (whatever that means) and various polls indicate that the Democrats will gain the House majority come November 6, with Republican representation dipping to 210 seats or so.
 
I predict they lose Flake's seat but pick up Nelson's and stays 51-49.

House will be a bloodbath.

Nelson going down
McCaskill going down
Heitkamp going down

Dems already pulling money

Tester in trouble

Menendez not a given for D

House isn’t going to be a blood bath either. Most pollsters have Dems +8-9. Early voter turnout is favoring R’s.

But blue wave
 
Nelson going down
McCaskill going down
Heitkamp going down

Dems already pulling money

Tester in trouble

Menendez not a given for D

House isn’t going to be a blood bath either. Most pollsters have Dems +8-9. Early voter turnout is favoring R’s.

But blue wave
Early voting already?
 
A factor in Florida that may or may not matter is the 400,000 Puerto Ricans that have moved here in the last year.

The mayor of San Juan has been all over the state and tv campaigning for a democrat.

The speaker of the PR house has been out for repubs.

I also have no idea what their party breakdown is.
 
A factor in Florida that may or may not matter is the 400,000 Puerto Ricans that have moved here in the last year.

The mayor of San Juan has been all over the state and tv campaigning for a democrat.

The speaker of the PR house has been out for repubs.

I also have no idea what their party breakdown is.

That Dem finished 3rd. I was concerned that those ads might push some vote towards Levine, particularly for those who don't know that the P.R. mayor is very much a lefty. However, it doesn't appear to have moved the needle significantly.
 
According to Quinnipiac, the 49% that was previously backing their Democratic House member has now dropped to 42% and that in generic voting, the Democrats’ 14 point lead is now down to 7.
 
According to Quinnipiac, the 49% that was previously backing their Democratic House member has now dropped to 42% and that in generic voting, the Democrats’ 14 point lead is now down to 7.

Statistical tie now in enthusiasm among Registered Voters.

Dem women enthusiasm fell.

Enthusiasm for those under 30 at 60% versus headline numbers ~80%.

 
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People place real money bets on elections? That's some serious gambling addiction.
 
Yes on the polls PROVIDED you combat the inherant bias by adding 5 to 10 % to the Republican.

And that was before all the kavanaugh stuff.
 
So we should pay attention to polls now?

I'll listen to the guys at 538 who basically said to be careful trying to interpret the actual numbers in the poll as the methodologies can impact results. But direction in movement can show changes in perceptions and momentum.
 
I'll listen to the guys at 538 who basically said to be careful trying to interpret the actual numbers in the poll as the methodologies can impact results. But direction in movement can show changes in perceptions and momentum.

So, down in Creek County, and the rest of America: Hillary wins~:D
 
I'll listen to the guys at 538 who basically said to be careful trying to interpret the actual numbers in the poll as the methodologies can impact results. But direction in movement can show changes in perceptions and momentum.
They were WILDLY WRONG in 2016.
 
Nope. You're lazy and don't pay attention.

That is a daily reminder that you are simply not a considerate person.

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They were WILDLY WRONG in 2016.

Correct. But if you look at the direction the polls were going in the final few days of 2016, you'd have seen momentum building for Trump. As I stated, the actual measures themselves are highly impacted by the weightings used. However, if the weightings are consistent then the changes in the polls are reflective of real changes.
 
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I'm asking you.

Should we pay attention to polls now concerning elections?

I think it is the trend of each individual poll that is meaningful, provided they conduct each one exactly the same.

But... You are correct about the polls and this board's posters, including me at times.
 
The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS October 4 through 7 among a random national sample of 1,009 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican

Democrats and Dem Leaning Independents have had an enthusiasm improvement of 7 points, to 62% since September

Republicans and Republican leaning independents, enthusiasm has increased from 50% in September to 52%

Half of Americans (50%) expect Republicans to remain in control of Congress after the elections, while just a third think Democrats will win control (34%), down from 40% who thought they'd take over Congress in an August survey.

Currently 38% say that the country would be better off if the Democrats take control of Congress which is down from 40% in September. 1/4th said that it wouldn't matter which party was in control of congress.

Specific Issues:
Americans largely trust Democrats over Republicans on handling health care, 54% to 36%, immigration, 49% to 42%
Americans trust Republicans on the economy 48% to 42% and on national security (50% say Republicans would handle it better, compared to 39% who prefer Democrats).

Democrats hold the advantage on handling issues of sexual misconduct (51% to 30%) and the investigation into Russian meddling in the US election (50% to 34%).

On the federal budget and gun policy, Americans split between the two parties. On gun policy, that's a shift away from Democrats, who held a 48% to 40% advantage in a March CNN poll.

Both Democratic and Republican Party favorability ratings have stayed about the same since May. In the new poll, 46% have a positive view of the Democratic Party and 45% have a negative one. Republicans fare a little worse, with 40% holding a favorable view and 52% thinking of them unfavorably.
 
4 weeks is still an eternity in politics. The more I hear how big the blue wave will be the more I believe it won't be that big.
 
I have read a few stories that the reason there will be a blue wave is that Trimp voters have been told and told themselves that there cant be a blue wave. Therefore since they aren't worried a lot of them will not bother to vote.

They have also convinced themselves that since the polls missed on Hillary they will be wrong everytime.

The other more real problem is the 40 vacated Republican seats.
 
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