It appears that it's going to get ugly
- Thread starter osu_orangestreak
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Do you not understand what an exit poll is? Are these the same exit polls from two years ago, as well? Like I said, not exactly what Drudge said.
By rejecting the ads from the rnc that were about the economy and making this about the border andhimself he really screwed up. Independents want no part of that talk.
Exit polls had John Kerry winning big
I do think it will be a good night for the Dems but let’s hold off here until we get more data.
Weird, 538 is showing something completely different. As of right now, Dems only have a 5/9 (53%) chance to win the House and are estimated by their calculations (for what its worth) to win 24 seats. That's trending the wrong way for a blue wave. It was over 86% (6/7) to win the house at the start of today.
Edit: They also now have Repubs picking up 2 seats (vs 1 this morning) in the Senate.
Edit: They also now have Repubs picking up 2 seats (vs 1 this morning) in the Senate.
Do Reps have more voters that vote later because they have to vote after work?
Hadn't read all the blog posts over there yet. They comment on the Republican strength in their metric. They state its a by product of all the Likely Republican wins in the South being confirmed as Republican wins whereas the Dem equivalents are in more westerly precincts and thus the Dem side hasn't had that same effect. I take it all with a grain of salt. I'm not a fan of Amendment 4 passing though. It will turn Florida into a Blue state in 2020. It might all but guarantee a Dem win.
From Nate Silver: Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.
I'd dont know how to do image or twitter embeds. But its clear that the blue base started panicking with his numbers and he's come out to calm the base. There was a point earlier where it actually had Repubs as favored to carry the house, but it was just for a minute. Now I assume he's being straight-up about the impact of how certain precincts are skewing his formula. But I'd ask, what good is a model if it has to be adjusted on the fly because you don't like the results.
I'd dont know how to do image or twitter embeds. But its clear that the blue base started panicking with his numbers and he's come out to calm the base. There was a point earlier where it actually had Repubs as favored to carry the house, but it was just for a minute. Now I assume he's being straight-up about the impact of how certain precincts are skewing his formula. But I'd ask, what good is a model if it has to be adjusted on the fly because you don't like the results.
First official Dem loss in the Senate: Donnely from Indiana goes down by a pretty good margin. Looks like Repubs are once again outperforming individual polls by about 3-4 points. If that holds across the country, Repubs might still hold the house.
Allows for non-murder or sexual offense felons to regain their voting rights upon the total completion of their sentencing (jail, parole time and probations). Estimated 1.4 million felons will become eligible to vote in 2020.
Crazily enough, don’t see an issue with that. If you have paid your dues in the fun house you should be able to vote. The recidivism rate being what it is, most will be back in prison not long after they get out anyway. Just don’t see how being a felon, but doing your time, should disqualify you from voting. Agree with not having a weapon though.
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I understand the position. I do with it was for all violent crime and not just murder & sexual offenses. I could accept it then. Although I'm not blind what the political impact of that bill will be.
Great post on 538:
Just a quick note on the world of polling accuracy: If Republicans win the Florida Senate and gubernatorial contests, that’ll be a surprise to anyone who saw today’s final NBC/Marist poll. It had the Democrats winning each race by 5 points, although the polling averages were a bit closer. But while pollsters can argue about margins of error and such, if a variety of other races break for Republicans, expect these Florida elections to be held up as more proof that the polls are missing out on undercover Republican voters.
Thats a 5% underestimation on Republican votes. If that holds elsewhere, it will be a good night for "R"s.
Just a quick note on the world of polling accuracy: If Republicans win the Florida Senate and gubernatorial contests, that’ll be a surprise to anyone who saw today’s final NBC/Marist poll. It had the Democrats winning each race by 5 points, although the polling averages were a bit closer. But while pollsters can argue about margins of error and such, if a variety of other races break for Republicans, expect these Florida elections to be held up as more proof that the polls are missing out on undercover Republican voters.
Thats a 5% underestimation on Republican votes. If that holds elsewhere, it will be a good night for "R"s.
If exit polls are to be believed, Red-State Dems who voted against Kavanaugh made a very poor political calculation. They each got slaughtered and exit polls identified that as an important factor for those casting votes.
Looks like the original estimates are going to be about right. R's win a couple seats in the Senate, and Dems take the house with 30-35 net change.
A harsh truth fir Democrats to swallow tomorrow: if Beto hadn't been so full of himself and had run a better campaign they could have won an historic victory in Texas.
You think so? Seems like getting the race to 5 points is a big deal. i remember the chick from a couple years ago that was going to be the next big thing and she got crushed by double digits
Cruz ran 10 points behind the governor. Beto made all sorts of unforced errors the last several weeks.
If by ugly you mean full steam ahead packing the courts with far right wing nut jobs then yes it is getting ugly.
The panhandle is a different time zone and is overwhelmingly republican. Those votes come in late.
