The 2015 Chicago mayoral election is slowly, slowly, slowly taking shape. A recent poll found only 29% of its respondents ready to vote to re-elect Rahm. Three legit potential challengers (all from Rahm's left) seem to be having a stand-off as to which one will declare candidacy first.
-Karen Lewis, Chicago Teachers Union president. Took control of the union thanks to a putsch from its left wing that wanted a more aggressive stand against pension cuts and other reforms. Just as feisty as Rahm. She has no public campaign experience, and is a polarizing figure even within the union. The union has led a voter-registration drive and will devote serious resources to getting out the vote even if she doesn't run. She indicated that she'll run if Preckwinkle doesn't.
-Toni Preckwinkle, Cook County Board president. Holds the highest elected office in the nation's second-most populous county. She's a savvy operative and could build a base quickly, having served in the City Council. Probably not the reformer that many hoped she would be. The aforementioned poll found 26% ready to vote for her which is pretty amazing considering she's done no campaigning. She's black, like Lewis, but not so far left to frighten white lakefront liberals.
-Bob Fioretti, 2nd ward alderman. A classic progressive independent alderman (hey, there's always one or two--out of 50). Rahm seems take a special pleasure in hating him. The establishment re-destricted Fioretti out of a job, so he'll have to run against an incumbent in his 'new' ward. Although he is white, his ward is majority black, so he's shown he can build a coalition.
Rahm will have his hands full, especially if Lewis or Preckwinkle declare. A Rahm-Lewis race would result in a comfortable Rahm win, IMO, but it would be entertaining. As usual, the concern is that a race with more than one black candidate will split that vote. But both Lewis and Preckwinkle might combine to force a run-off. The third-place candidate (Lewis in the this case) would then continue to push her base to vote for Preckwinkle. And, if Fioretti's involved, he could force Rahm to expend energy on what should be his secure base (lakefront whites), thus leaving Preckwinkle and/or Lewis to build their base unopposed. What will the Latino vote do? Rahm will go all out to keep the Latino aldermen in his pocket. There's actually a Latino socialist with a shot at city council (with the help of young white Jacobin-types). Rahm is not too popular in the cop-and-fireman white areas of the far northwest and southwest sides. But Lewis (certainly) or Preckiwinkle (probably) can't pick them up--yet a low turnout in those wards will hurt Rahm.
Rahm is extremely unpopular in huge swaths of the west and south side, thanks to school closings and other service cuts. Voter turnout in those wards, though, slips every election. He will need to explain why he has prioritized things like a $55 million dollar tax-break/subsidy for a new DePaul basketball arena, and the gifting of lakefront property to George Lucas for something called a Museum of Narrative Imagination or something like that. Any of these challengers will push Rahm on reform issues like an elected school board and TIF reform. But he has $7 million in campaign funds. I think he'll win in any scenario, but hope that this election cycle will provide a model for a legit reform candidate in 2019. There's a couple of young guns in city council that are wisely sitting this one out.
-Karen Lewis, Chicago Teachers Union president. Took control of the union thanks to a putsch from its left wing that wanted a more aggressive stand against pension cuts and other reforms. Just as feisty as Rahm. She has no public campaign experience, and is a polarizing figure even within the union. The union has led a voter-registration drive and will devote serious resources to getting out the vote even if she doesn't run. She indicated that she'll run if Preckwinkle doesn't.
-Toni Preckwinkle, Cook County Board president. Holds the highest elected office in the nation's second-most populous county. She's a savvy operative and could build a base quickly, having served in the City Council. Probably not the reformer that many hoped she would be. The aforementioned poll found 26% ready to vote for her which is pretty amazing considering she's done no campaigning. She's black, like Lewis, but not so far left to frighten white lakefront liberals.
-Bob Fioretti, 2nd ward alderman. A classic progressive independent alderman (hey, there's always one or two--out of 50). Rahm seems take a special pleasure in hating him. The establishment re-destricted Fioretti out of a job, so he'll have to run against an incumbent in his 'new' ward. Although he is white, his ward is majority black, so he's shown he can build a coalition.
Rahm will have his hands full, especially if Lewis or Preckwinkle declare. A Rahm-Lewis race would result in a comfortable Rahm win, IMO, but it would be entertaining. As usual, the concern is that a race with more than one black candidate will split that vote. But both Lewis and Preckwinkle might combine to force a run-off. The third-place candidate (Lewis in the this case) would then continue to push her base to vote for Preckwinkle. And, if Fioretti's involved, he could force Rahm to expend energy on what should be his secure base (lakefront whites), thus leaving Preckwinkle and/or Lewis to build their base unopposed. What will the Latino vote do? Rahm will go all out to keep the Latino aldermen in his pocket. There's actually a Latino socialist with a shot at city council (with the help of young white Jacobin-types). Rahm is not too popular in the cop-and-fireman white areas of the far northwest and southwest sides. But Lewis (certainly) or Preckiwinkle (probably) can't pick them up--yet a low turnout in those wards will hurt Rahm.
Rahm is extremely unpopular in huge swaths of the west and south side, thanks to school closings and other service cuts. Voter turnout in those wards, though, slips every election. He will need to explain why he has prioritized things like a $55 million dollar tax-break/subsidy for a new DePaul basketball arena, and the gifting of lakefront property to George Lucas for something called a Museum of Narrative Imagination or something like that. Any of these challengers will push Rahm on reform issues like an elected school board and TIF reform. But he has $7 million in campaign funds. I think he'll win in any scenario, but hope that this election cycle will provide a model for a legit reform candidate in 2019. There's a couple of young guns in city council that are wisely sitting this one out.
