Here are some interesting numbers to have on hand when looking at conference re-alignment and the future of college football. Just something to think about with maybe a couple opinions tacked on...
Consider the makeup of the Big 12 conference in regards to undergraduate enrollment and living alumni by school (approximate numbers used) without the 8 new schools:
Texas Tech: 33,000 students; 260,000 alumni
Iowa State: 25,000 students; 233,000 alumni
Kansas: 19,000 students; 358,000 alumni
Oklahoma State: 21,000 students; 250,000 alumni
West Virginia: 19,000 students; 210,000 alumni
Baylor: 21,000 students; 160,000 alumni
Kansas State: 15,000 students; 189,000 alumni
TCU: 11,000 students; 100,000 alumni
{Average among this group: 20,000 undergraduate students & 220,000 alumni}
Now, look at the profiles of the new 8 schools by the same measurements.
Arizona State: 66,000 students; 650,000 alumni
UCF: 59,000 students; 360,000 alumni
Arizona: 40,000 students; 300,000 alumni
Houston: 38,000 students; 298,000 alumni
Cincinnati: 30,000 students; 350,000 alumni
Colorado: 31,000; 250,000 alumni
Utah: 27,000 students; 255,000 alumni
BYU: 31,000 students; 456,000 alumni
{Average among this group: 40,000 students & 365,000 alumni}
The new Big 12 averages are: 30,000 students & 292,000 alumni. It is clear that the undergraduate enrollment and living alumni are factors given strong consideration along with brand, markets, tv viewership, fan engagement, student recruiting area, etc. The commissioner has been crystal clear on the fact that he is searching for additive value. Growing student populations and living alumni bases offer possibilities of much higher future growth, and these schools are most often located in the heart of states that are flourishing economically with population growth. Even a cursory look at the new Big 12 additions reveals that potential.
According to the US Census date, four states (Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia) accounted for 93% of the US population growth in 2022 and 67% in 2023 as we move further away from COVID lock-down policies. Additionally, South Carolina (5th overall) led the nation in population growth on a percentage basis. Here is the top 10 in growth over the past 2 years. After this next round of re-alignment, the Big 12 could well have a strong footprint in most of these states, likely 8 or 9 of the top 10.
#1 Texas (Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech)
#2 Florida (UCF, Florida State, Miami, USF)
#3 North Carolina (NC State, UNC, Duke)
#4 Georgia (Georgia Tech)
#5 South Carolina (Clemson)
#6 Tennessee (Memphis)
#7 Arizona (Arizona, Arizona State)
#8 Virginia (Virginia Tech, Virginia)
#9 Colorado (Colorado)
#10 Utah (BYU, Utah)
Picking up schools from these states that add current value to the media rights packages would be wise, because their markets and alumni bases are growing and prospering. There will be greater upside in the future. Florida State would give the conference a huge brand, but also really help anchor the conference in Florida with UCF. Texas and Florida are the two most important college football states in the nation, and it is not even close. Landing Clemson and NC State are priority targets, expanding into two states that will allow the conference to build a true national footprint. {If Brett Yormark can somehow position the conference to effectively replace Texas with Florida State; Oklahoma with Clemson; and expand into the mid-Atlantic, he would deserve a statue. This would solidify a Big 3 for this next phase of college football.} The rest of the ACC schools have different things going for them and the priority list could change drastically depending on whether the ACC stays in tact/dissolves; which school(s) are more willing to jump first, and what our media partners prefer. Louisville, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Duke will all be looking at options. Boston College, Wake Forest, and likely Syracuse could well end up hoping to have an option.
Here are the student & living alumni numbers for a group of possible expansion targets.
Florida State: 33,000 students; 536,000 alumni
Oregon State: 32,000; 215,000 alumni
Virginia Tech: 30,000 students; 292,000 alumni
North Carolina State: 26,000 students; 300,000 alumni
Clemson: 23,000 students; 180,000 alumni
Washington State: 22,000 students; 239,000 alumni
Pittsburgh: 20,000; 318,000 alumni
Georgia Tech: 19,000; 166,000 alumni
Louisville: 16,000; 145,000 alumni
Miami: 13,000 students; 200,000 alumni
Duke: 7,000 students; 200,000 alumni
Connecticut: 19,000 students; 287,000 alumni
Memphis: 17,000 students; 165,000 alumni
Consider the makeup of the Big 12 conference in regards to undergraduate enrollment and living alumni by school (approximate numbers used) without the 8 new schools:
Texas Tech: 33,000 students; 260,000 alumni
Iowa State: 25,000 students; 233,000 alumni
Kansas: 19,000 students; 358,000 alumni
Oklahoma State: 21,000 students; 250,000 alumni
West Virginia: 19,000 students; 210,000 alumni
Baylor: 21,000 students; 160,000 alumni
Kansas State: 15,000 students; 189,000 alumni
TCU: 11,000 students; 100,000 alumni
{Average among this group: 20,000 undergraduate students & 220,000 alumni}
Now, look at the profiles of the new 8 schools by the same measurements.
Arizona State: 66,000 students; 650,000 alumni
UCF: 59,000 students; 360,000 alumni
Arizona: 40,000 students; 300,000 alumni
Houston: 38,000 students; 298,000 alumni
Cincinnati: 30,000 students; 350,000 alumni
Colorado: 31,000; 250,000 alumni
Utah: 27,000 students; 255,000 alumni
BYU: 31,000 students; 456,000 alumni
{Average among this group: 40,000 students & 365,000 alumni}
The new Big 12 averages are: 30,000 students & 292,000 alumni. It is clear that the undergraduate enrollment and living alumni are factors given strong consideration along with brand, markets, tv viewership, fan engagement, student recruiting area, etc. The commissioner has been crystal clear on the fact that he is searching for additive value. Growing student populations and living alumni bases offer possibilities of much higher future growth, and these schools are most often located in the heart of states that are flourishing economically with population growth. Even a cursory look at the new Big 12 additions reveals that potential.
According to the US Census date, four states (Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia) accounted for 93% of the US population growth in 2022 and 67% in 2023 as we move further away from COVID lock-down policies. Additionally, South Carolina (5th overall) led the nation in population growth on a percentage basis. Here is the top 10 in growth over the past 2 years. After this next round of re-alignment, the Big 12 could well have a strong footprint in most of these states, likely 8 or 9 of the top 10.
#1 Texas (Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech)
#2 Florida (UCF, Florida State, Miami, USF)
#3 North Carolina (NC State, UNC, Duke)
#4 Georgia (Georgia Tech)
#5 South Carolina (Clemson)
#6 Tennessee (Memphis)
#7 Arizona (Arizona, Arizona State)
#8 Virginia (Virginia Tech, Virginia)
#9 Colorado (Colorado)
#10 Utah (BYU, Utah)
Picking up schools from these states that add current value to the media rights packages would be wise, because their markets and alumni bases are growing and prospering. There will be greater upside in the future. Florida State would give the conference a huge brand, but also really help anchor the conference in Florida with UCF. Texas and Florida are the two most important college football states in the nation, and it is not even close. Landing Clemson and NC State are priority targets, expanding into two states that will allow the conference to build a true national footprint. {If Brett Yormark can somehow position the conference to effectively replace Texas with Florida State; Oklahoma with Clemson; and expand into the mid-Atlantic, he would deserve a statue. This would solidify a Big 3 for this next phase of college football.} The rest of the ACC schools have different things going for them and the priority list could change drastically depending on whether the ACC stays in tact/dissolves; which school(s) are more willing to jump first, and what our media partners prefer. Louisville, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Duke will all be looking at options. Boston College, Wake Forest, and likely Syracuse could well end up hoping to have an option.
Here are the student & living alumni numbers for a group of possible expansion targets.
Florida State: 33,000 students; 536,000 alumni
Oregon State: 32,000; 215,000 alumni
Virginia Tech: 30,000 students; 292,000 alumni
North Carolina State: 26,000 students; 300,000 alumni
Clemson: 23,000 students; 180,000 alumni
Washington State: 22,000 students; 239,000 alumni
Pittsburgh: 20,000; 318,000 alumni
Georgia Tech: 19,000; 166,000 alumni
Louisville: 16,000; 145,000 alumni
Miami: 13,000 students; 200,000 alumni
Duke: 7,000 students; 200,000 alumni
Connecticut: 19,000 students; 287,000 alumni
Memphis: 17,000 students; 165,000 alumni
