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If you want early voting statistics / other info...

Actually, I'd suggest going over the past 3 or 4 days of tweets to capture more interesting info.
 
If those numbers are legit, President Trump will be announced quite early tomorrow night, unless I'm looking at it wrong.
 
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looks like women voters outnumber male by at least an average of 10% in every state....probably not a good sign for trump.
 
purkey said:
looks like women voters outnumber male by at least an average of 10% in every state....probably not a good sign for trump.
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Men don't early vote, but the R/D breakdown is heavily on the R side compared with 2012. I can seem more R women voting D than in 2012, but early vote? No way.
 
purkey said:
looks like women voters outnumber male by at least an average of 10% in every state....probably not a good sign for trump.
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So much info listed between tweets, state early voting patterns, etc...you'll need to cite where you're getting the info and how you filtered it.

For example, maybe you obtained that from No filter applied to the google consumer survey. In that instance, your statement needs to be mindful of voting patterns (men are much more likely to vote on Election day versus women), and pay attention to in-state voting patterns, as well as, trends versus historical turnout for groupings (if available in the data you are citing).
 
poke2001 said:
If those numbers are legit, President Trump will be announced quite early tomorrow night, unless I'm looking at it wrong.
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Unless at least 2 trends are significantly bucked (reversed) this voting cycle, the tea leaves suggest you are correct.
 
CBradSmith said:
So much info listed between tweets, state early voting patterns, etc...you'll need to cite where you're getting the info and how you filtered it.

For example, maybe you obtained that from No filter applied to the google consumer survey. In that instance, your statement needs to be mindful of voting patterns (men are much more likely to vote on Election day versus women), and pay attention to in-state voting patterns, as well as, trends versus historical turnout for groupings (if available in the data you are citing).
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I can't get anything but your last link to open...can you briefly summarize the conclusions for Florida, PA, NC?

The last link shows a Trump sweep coming....
 
poke2001 said:
I can't get anything but your last link to open...can you briefly summarize the conclusions for Florida, PA, NC?

The last link shows a Trump sweep coming....
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You referring back to the Google Consumer Survey from the first post?
 
Any Michigan data?

There is a reason the Clinton camp has been camped out in MI and PA the last few days. They know something that isn't showing in public polling (public polling shows tightening, but still a Clinton win).

Remember, Clinton was up 20 on Bernie in Mi and lost.

Trump has spent a fair amount of time in PA and Mi as well, even to Wi and MN lately.

The Florida one is huge though. Romney was down Big in Florida early voting and won. Trump leading by a little should mean a victory unless more Rs just turned out early because of enthusiasm gap.
 
Early voting numbers have historically not been very predictive. The other problem I see in comparing to early periods, 2012 for example, is that early voting is becoming more prevalent year-over-year and the amount of time and variety of methods to early vote is also expanding.
 
At the end of Florida early voting the Democrats had a 85,000 vote advantage.

The hispanic vote is up 129% over 4 years ago....in early voting

There also 200,000 more Puerto Ricans in the state from 4 years ago.

No way he wins Florida
 
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osu_orangestreak said:
At the end of Florida early voting the Democrats had a 85,000 vote advantage.

The hispanic vote is up 129% over 4 years ago.

There also 200,000 more Puerto Ricans in the state from 4 years ago.

No way he wins Florida
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Is this data as reliable as your statement "that new voter registration in Florida has been 10-1 Democrat" from a few weeks back?
 
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osu_orangestreak said:
At the end of Florida early voting the Democrats had a 85,000 vote advantage.

The hispanic vote is up 129% over 4 years ago.

There also 200,000 more Puerto Ricans in the state from 4 years ago.

No way he wins Florida
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Incorrect.

You are relying on bad assumptions.
 
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osu_orangestreak said:
At the end of Florida early voting the Democrats had a 85,000 vote advantage.

The hispanic vote is up 129% over 4 years ago.

There also 200,000 more Puerto Ricans in the state from 4 years ago.

No way he wins Florida
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Yeh, so none of what you just said is true. Not any of it.

He may lose Florida...but this is just incorrect.
 
Marshal Jim Duncan said:
Early voting numbers have historically not been very predictive. The other problem I see in comparing to early periods, 2012 for example, is that early voting is becoming more prevalent year-over-year and the amount of time and variety of methods to early vote is also expanding.
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Sounds like something a Romney or McCain supporter would have said in 08 or 12.

And if doing time period analysis using 08 or 12 as benchmark years, it doesn't need to be statistically predictive....it only frames an assumptive analysis.

Using the above as benchmarking and polling data as predictive, you can cut through the weighting that Legacy media is forcing in their polls to obtain a picture that is much more reflective of what the outcome will be.

In short:
R registered voters are significantly above their 08 and 12 turnout.
D is down, cycle on cycle comparison, except in isolated spots.
Indies are breaking toward Trump in most cases.

You have to get really granular in this stuff. Bank what is know, then use that as the foundation for projecting.
 
osu_orangestreak said:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/latinos-voter-turnout-early-voting-2016-election/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/11/florida-battleground-state-voter-registration

http://www.newstalkflorida.com/featured/florida-voter-analysis/
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cnn_confuses_nevada_with_arizona_11-5-16-1.jpg
 
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Check out Election day (intention to vote on ED) subsample, parsed by state, in the ABC poll for starters. Those numbers are supported by a lot of other polling data.

Layer that over known banked numbers.

Build a forecast from predictive historical total voter turnout numbers.
 
Sorry if I don't buy Clinton News Network.

Again, Trump may lose Florida, but not due to early voting as he is up over Romney and Clinton is down over Obama and Romney won.
 
CBradSmith said:
Check out Election day (intention to vote on ED) subsample, parsed by state, in the ABC poll for starters. Those numbers are supported by a lot of other polling data.

Layer that over known banked numbers.

Build a forecast from predictive historical total voter turnout numbers.
Click to expand...

*as a percent of eligible voters. (For that last part)
 
osu_orangestreak said:
I was wrong Democrats up 87,249
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In Florida, more than 6.4 million people have voted already. About 2.55 million are registered Democrats, 2.46 million are registered Republicans. Democrats have an advantage of about 87,000 votes. The good news for Trump is that the CBS News/YouGov poll, released Sunday, has him winning independents 47 percent to 34 percent.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner




If those %'s hold, that would put Trump just under 100K ahead in early voting.
 
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Marshal Jim Duncan said:
Hey CBrad -- what are your data sources/tweets showing in Nevada?
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Been quiet last few days. Mixed. My gut based on all I read was to settle into thinking it is a slight Hillary lean but with some indication it may swing Trump.

Essentially, it is a state I'm not touching.
 
poke2001 said:
Sorry if I don't buy Clinton News Network.

Again, Trump may lose Florida, but not due to early voting as he is up over Romney and Clinton is down over Obama and Romney won.
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What did Romney win? Didn't Obama win Florida by 75,000 votes?
 
Marshal Jim Duncan said:
In Florida, more than 6.4 million people have voted already. About 2.55 million are registered Democrats, 2.46 million are registered Republicans. Democrats have an advantage of about 87,000 votes. The good news for Trump is that the CBS News/YouGov poll, released Sunday, has him winning independents 47 percent to 34 percent.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner




If those %'s hold, that would put Trump just under 100K ahead in early voting.
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Exactly. There is also very little chance he loses among those voting tomorrow. If he is ahead now, Florida is done.
 
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CBradSmith said:
Been quiet last few days. Mixed. My gut based on all I read was to settle into thinking it is a slight Hillary lean but with some indication it may swing Trump.

Essentially, it is a state I'm not touching.
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Not touching bc the info is just so mixed that no clear picture is notable.

Also, I think I'm a little gun shy of NV bc of that one woman senate candidate that was supposed to do well against Reid but got smashed.
 
poke2001 said:
She's a c**t that doesn't energize anyone to vote. Trump's turnout is a mystery. On one hand, he has energized a lot of people that haven't voted before, but lost some traditional R voters. If he holds roughly even with romney, I think he wins.
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He's got some blue dog Dem appeal as well. I think his pop total exceeds Romney by 5% or more.
 
CBradSmith said:
He's got some blue dog Dem appeal as well. I think his pop total exceeds Romney by 5% or more.
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I agree and I sure hope so. One thing he is lacking is that "ground game" that's always talked about. He won't have people bussing groups to the poll and buying them pizza along the way like Hillary will have. Also, don't underestimate the large numbers of dead people in key counties.
 
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