Hypothetical Scenario

[Been Jammin]

Let's imagine that the House flips tomorrow, and (surprisingly) the Senate flips as well. This is followed by the Dems attempting to impeach Trump. They are successful.

What would happen? How bad would the divide in this country get? I'm thinking unprecedented violence.

 

[CowboyPhil]

Impeaching and removing from office are 2 different things, as Clinton proved.

If they actually succeeded in removing him from office, I'll start popping popcorn to watch the meltdowns/celebration clashes.

 

[gopokes2003]

Let's imagine that the House flips tomorrow, and (surprisingly) the Senate flips as well. This is followed by the Dems attempting to impeach Trump. They are successful.

What would happen? How bad would the divide in this country get? I'm thinking unprecedented violence.

There wouldn't be any violence, because the Senate would never convict. You need a two-thirds vote in the Senate to remove the President from office.

 

[Been Jammin]

There wouldn't be any violence, because the Senate would never convict. You need a two-thirds vote in the Senate to remove the President from office.

Good point.

 

[Ostatedchi]

You wouldn't see violence except from the leftists.

What you could see are a number of states really look at secession as a viable option (just as California is doing now).

 

[Headhunter]

I'd be ugly but there is virtually no chance of that happening so it's nothing to get worked up about.

To me this all goes to eyeballs vs polls. Look at the Trump rallies compared to Obama's or any Dem. The Dems will massively underestimate the motivation of Trump supporters and the very worst scenario is the Dems take a small majority in the house. Senate, no shot, impeachment, no shot. (There I go again with the violent rhetoric.)

 

[CSCOTTOSUPOKES]

You wouldn't see violence except from the leftists.

 

[Been Jammin]

You wouldn't see violence except from the leftists.

What you could see are a number of states really look at secession as a viable option (just as California is doing now).

I disagree with your first point. Of course, we will probably never know which of is correct.

Your second point, I think is realistic. It sounds crazy. I thought about including the term Civil War in my OP, but couldn't imagine the 2 sides actually taking up arms against each other. Attempted secession does seem realistic to me.

 

[aix_xpert]

Let's imagine that the House flips tomorrow, and (surprisingly) the Senate flips as well. This is followed by the Dems attempting to impeach Trump. They are successful.

What would happen? How bad would the divide in this country get? I'm thinking unprecedented violence.

I don't. But the Dems would get slaughtered in 2020, because such as stark deviation would lead to a market crash and a recession, and they'd have no Bush to hang it on. Republicans election map would look like Reagan vs. Mondale.

Edit: It is worth noting, that this would likely trigger a world-wide recession given China's already weak position, and Europe's continuing fragmentation.

 

[Ostatedchi]

I disagree with your first point. Of course, we will probably never know which of is correct.

Your second point, I think is realistic. It sounds crazy. I thought about including the term Civil War in my OP, but couldn't imagine the 2 sides actually taking up arms against each other. Attempted secession does seem realistic to me.

No need for another civil war. I just don't see states seceding in modern times as anything other than Brexit. They'll secede, negotiate with the federal government on the terms of the exit, and then start anew.

 

[aix_xpert]

No need for another civil war. I just don't see states seceding in modern times as anything other than Brexit. They'll secede, negotiate with the federal government on the terms of the exit, and then start anew.

I've wondered if Brexit (which is slightly different as they've at least always maintained their own currency and monetary policy vs. US States) might serve as a road map for the future splitting of the US.

 

[my_2cents]

Let's imagine that the House flips tomorrow, and (surprisingly) the Senate flips as well. This is followed by the Dems attempting to impeach Trump. They are successful.

What would happen? How bad would the divide in this country get? I'm thinking unprecedented violence.

Unless the Mueller investigation charges Trump with serious violations of the law, it would be a political mistake on the part of Democrats to proceed with impeachment.

If Democrats have a successful night tomorrow (win one of the houses of Congress), they need to focus on contrasting themselves with Trump/Republicans on policy and continue to oppose Trump's policies. They need to place Trump on the defensive. Finally, they should be focused on winning the White House back in 2020.

 

[gopokes2003]

I disagree with your first point. Of course, we will probably never know which of is correct.

Your second point, I think is realistic. It sounds crazy. I thought about including the term Civil War in my OP, but couldn't imagine the 2 sides actually taking up arms against each other. Attempted secession does seem realistic to me.

No need for another civil war. I just don't see states seceding in modern times as anything other than Brexit. They'll secede, negotiate with the federal government on the terms of the exit, and then start anew.

Is there any legal way for a state secede?

 

[Ostatedchi]

Is there any legal way for a state secede?

Well, according to the 10th amendment if the constitution is silent on a topic then it is reserved for the states. So, I think the state could just vote for secession

 

[gopokes2003]

Is there any legal way for a state secede?

Well, according to the 10th amendment if the constitution is silent on a topic then it is reserved for the states. So, I think the state could just vote for secession

The supreme court ruled a state could only secede through revolution or through consent of the other states.

 

[Ostatedchi]

The supreme court ruled a state could only secede through revolution or through consent of the other states.

Any chance that the 1869 decision could be revisited by today's court?

 

[my_2cents]

Any chance that the 1869 decision could be revisited by today's court?

No.

 

[Ostatedchi]

No.

Ha, okay.

 

[poke2001]

Unless the Mueller investigation charges Trump with serious violations of the law, it would be a political mistake on the part of Democrats to proceed with impeachment.

If Democrats have a successful night tomorrow (win one of the houses of Congress), they need to focus on contrasting themselves with Trump/Republicans on policy and continue to oppose Trump's policies. They need to place Trump on the defensive. Finally, they should be focused on winning the White House back in 2020.

But you know this would never happen. Liberalism is a mental disorder that will prevent them from actually governing. There would be articles of impeachment on the floor within the first month.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

I really think we are closer to some form of civil war than people realize. I’m not predicting it; it depends on what transpires, but I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question.

 

[aix_xpert]

The supreme court ruled a state could only secede through revolution or through consent of the other states.

But consent of other states could become possible. Do you think California or Oregon would complain if Georgia seceeded under a controlled "brexit" like plan? And Red states may support it so they can define a precedent for their own use. Just a hypothetical of course. Just read these boards. If California asked to seceed, how many states are going to simply state, "don't let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya". In fact, if we keep going the way we are going, in 100 years, we'll need it or there will be armed revolution for that separation. Just look at the wide variance of beliefs and values between the states of Oklahoma and Oregon. Similar in size, population, and population centers, but completely different value systems (and thats ok). But the theory of a collection of states only works if the states have the power to self-govern, and the fact is, every year more of that power is centered to our Federal government. And thus you are getting more Oregonians being governed by those who think like Oklahomans. And if the 'blue trend through migration, etc. is true, then somewhere in the future you'll have Oklahomans being governed by those who think like Oregonians. That's not a recipe for long-term success.

 

[Marshal Jim Duncan]

But consent of other states could become possible. Do you think California or Oregon would complain if Georgia seceeded under a controlled "brexit" like plan? And Red states may support it so they can define a precedent for their own use. Just a hypothetical of course. Just read these boards. If California asked to seceed, how many states are going to simply state, "don't let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya". In fact, if we keep going the way we are going, in 100 years, we'll need it or there will be armed revolution for that separation. Just look at the wide variance of beliefs and values between the states of Oklahoma and Oregon. Similar in size, population, and population centers, but completely different value systems (and thats ok). But the theory of a collection of states only works if the states have the power to self-govern, and the fact is, every year more of that power is centered to our Federal government. And thus you are getting more Oregonians being governed by those who think like Oklahomans. And if the 'blue trend through migration, etc. is true, then somewhere in the future you'll have Oklahomans being governed by those who think like Oregonians. That's not a recipe for long-term success.

Another angle to consider is: what about secession movements WITHIN states, e.g. Far Northern Cali vs the rest of California?

 

[my_2cents]

But you know this would never happen. Liberalism is a mental disorder that will prevent them from actually governing. There would be articles of impeachment on the floor within the first month.

No, actually most Democrats are saying what I said. Trump is the one using the fear of impeachment hearings to get his supporters to go out and vote.

Democratic leaders in Congress have said it is not going to be a priority. They know that minus serious charges from the Mueller investigation, moving forward on impeachment hearings would be a foolish political move.

btw, I also think if the Dems win the House, they don't need to make Pelosi the Speaker. Odds are she will be, but I think they should elect a new person to that position.

 

[Rdcldad]

Let's imagine that the House flips tomorrow, and (surprisingly) the Senate flips as well. This is followed by the Dems attempting to impeach Trump. They are successful.

What would happen? How bad would the divide in this country get? I'm thinking unprecedented violence.

did you see republican marches and violence when otard was elected?

did you see it on vagina hat scale?

nah man you didn’t

your life view is stained by the hypotheticals in your post

 

[aix_xpert]

Another angle to consider is: what about secession movements WITHIN states, e.g. Far Northern Cali vs the rest of California?

This would actually be harder imo, because you are diminishing your own power base in the Senate. If you Split California into 3 states (as been proposed before), then it now has 6 Senate seats. Yea, Northern California is more conservative than Southern/Coastal California, but if you are Ted Cruz, are you going to bet that that means more Republican Senators or that the odds are, those will still be Dem seats? Would you vote to allow that? If you're Bill Nelson (D-FL), would you vote for it because it might result in more Republican seats in the Senate. Just look at the consternation towards adding Puerto Rico as a state because it shifts power balance in the Senate leftwards. No way you'd get enough Senators to allow a state to split in half and create more Senate seats.

 

[Ostatedchi]

This would actually be harder imo, because you are diminishing your own power base in the Senate. If you Split California into 3 states (as been proposed before), then it now has 6 Senate seats. Yea, Northern California is more conservative than Southern/Coastal California, but if you are Ted Cruz, are you going to bet that that means more Republican Senators or that the odds are, those will still be Dem seats? Would you vote to allow that? If you're Bill Nelson (D-FL), would you vote for it because it might result in more Republican seats in the Senate. Just look at the consternation towards adding Puerto Rico as a state because it shifts power balance in the Senate leftwards. No way you'd get enough Senators to allow a state to split in half and create more Senate seats.

Exactly

 

[imprimis]

Another angle to consider is: what about secession movements WITHIN states, e.g. Far Northern Cali vs the rest of California?

What if the Senate flips by 1-2 votes and the dems get really crazy. Texas divides into 5 states* and elects/appoints GOP Senators in 3-4 of the 5 new states sufficient to put the GOP back in charge.

* Contrary to some people's belief, Texas, as an independent country, did not keep the ability to secede when it joined the US. It did retain the right to divide into 5 new states.

 

[aix_xpert]

What if the Senate flips by 1-2 votes and the dems get really crazy. Texas divides into 5 states* and elects/appoints GOP Senators in 3-4 of the 5 new states sufficient to put the GOP back in charge.

* Contrary to some people's belief, Texas, as an independent country, did not keep the ability to secede when it joined the US. It did retain the right to divide into 5 new states.

I thought it was 4 states, but you are correct. They do have the consistitutional right to divide. You want to talk about Gerrymandering? Can you imagine drawing new State lines in the creation of additional Senate seats?

 

[imprimis]

I thought it was 4 states, but you are correct. They do have the consistitutional right to divide. You want to talk about Gerrymandering? Can you imagine drawing new State lines in the creation of additional Senate seats?

And if you really wanted to get creative, leave Austin out and let it be it's own entity similar to DC with representatives who can't vote.

 

[Ostatedchi]

And if you really wanted to get creative, leave Austin out and let it be it's own entity similar to DC with representatives who can't vote.

Or for Senate distributing you could let each district have a slice of Austin just enough to diffuse the liberalism into the rest of the district.

 

[Pokeabear]

The Military Industrial Complex Will never allow a secession again. It ain’t gonna happen.

 

[HighStickHarry]

The Military Industrial Complex Will never allow a secession again. It ain’t gonna happen.

Oh boy here comes Alex Jones.

 

[Pokeabear]

Oh boy here comes Alex Jones.

Basic economics not your strong suit?

 

[CBradSmith]

What if the Senate flips by 1-2 votes and the dems get really crazy. Texas divides into 5 states* and elects/appoints GOP Senators in 3-4 of the 5 new states sufficient to put the GOP back in charge.

* Contrary to some people's belief, Texas, as an independent country, did not keep the ability to secede when it joined the US. It did retain the right to divide into 5 new states.

 

[CowboyJD]

What if the Senate flips by 1-2 votes and the dems get really crazy. Texas divides into 5 states* and elects/appoints GOP Senators in 3-4 of the 5 new states sufficient to put the GOP back in charge.

* Contrary to some people's belief, Texas, as an independent country, did not keep the ability to secede when it joined the US. It did retain the right to divide into 5 new states.

I thought it was 4 states, but you are correct. They do have the consistitutional right to divide. You want to talk about Gerrymandering? Can you imagine drawing new State lines in the creation of additional Senate seats?

Really good podcast by Malcom Gladwell exploring this from the perspective of when all the Dems left Texas for Ardmore so the Texas legislature couldn’t have a quorum to vote a few years back.

 

[aix_xpert]

Really good podcast by Malcom Gladwell exploring this from the perspective of when all the Dems left Texas for Ardmore so the Texas legislature couldn’t have a quorum to vote a few years back.

I'm a big Gladwell fan (Outliers is my favorite book), so I'll check it out. I remember when this happened.

 

[CowboyJD]

I'm a big Gladwell fan (Outliers is my favorite book), so I'll check it out. I remember when this happened.

“Revisionist History” is the podcast.

 

[aix_xpert]

“Revisionist History” is the podcast.

Thank you sir.

 

[Alpha Poke]

I really think we are closer to some form of civil war than people realize. I’m not predicting it; it depends on what transpires, but I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question.

When the people that shape the news also underwrite war, it's inevitable.